We caught up with Daniel Birkinshaw of the Sky Bet trading team to get his thoughts on the Cheltenham Festival and to find out where the money has been going.
Who is your banker of the meeting?
Lossiemouth is a safe enough backbone to any multi in the week. There’ll be a few looking to take her on at this trip but she looks different class and won’t be beat for me. She’s skinny enough, mind, so stick her in a double with another mare later on in the week – Dinoblue. Beaten only by El Fabiolo this season she looks a seriously improved model and I can’t see past her in this.
Which short-price favourites do you think look vulnerable?
I’m a big fan of Fact To File like most but everything has its price and the general 4/5 knocking around for him looks poor enough value to me, especially with the addition of Broadway Boy (confirmed) and American Mike (supplemented) this week. Whilst he did it on the clock last time, it’s hard to argue that a shade of odds-on is an appealing price for one of his profile for this race and I’ll be looking to get him beat.
The top two in the betting for the National Hunt Chase look vulnerable at 2/1 or shorter, Corbetts Cross hasn’t convinced with his jumping at all this season and although a more relaxed horse this year, I can’t get out of my mind how he shaped in the Albert Bartlett last season before running out. He looked to be running on empty to me and with jumping and stamina doubts he’s off the list.
Embassy Gardens doesn’t convince either. He’s won easily twice this season but looks to me like a horse who when the going gets tough he doesn’t get going so I’ll take my chances on one of Gordon Elliott’s Salvador Ziggy who brings in solid form.
Is there a piece of form you think looks especially strong or weak?
You have to go right back to a Pertemps qualifier at Punchestown at the end of November, where Jody Ted won off a mark of 115 before being sent off 9/2 favourite for the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December off a mark of 134. He was absolutely thrown in at Punchestown that day and there are a few in behind who have subsequently won races, but I feel there may be even more to come from that race (which I'll expand on later in this article).
A formline I’d be happy enough opposing next week is the top band of British novice chase form. Whilst it is hard to knock the likes of Ginny’s Destiny and Grey Dawning on what they’ve done so far, my view would be that, especially at the prices on the board now, it will be worthwhile looking to get with some of their opposition.
It is difficult to offer alternatives without the full picture but I’d give Facile Vega a huge shout in the Turners should he turn up.
Which horse could you see going well at a decent price in a graded race?
Protektorat ran a remarkable race last time given how keen he was without ever really settling and looks a horse back in form to my eye. With Banbridge unlikely to get his surface in the Ryanair, it looks open enough and with a prominent ride in this I’d give Protektorat a proper each-way chance.
I was really taken with Sixmilebridge in a Sandown bumper at the start of February. He travelled very well and quickened away from a good animal in Juby Ball and what was equally as striking was the weight of support behind him, having been sent off 13/8 favourite from much bigger prices earlier on. He’s anywhere between 16s-20s and that looks very fair.
Finally, Slade Steel looks a great bet in the Sky Bet Supreme at 7/1 or so given Ballyburn has been confirmed for the Gallagher. Despite not looking an out-and-out two-miler, I think his level of form is ahead of these and at that sort of price I can’t have three others beating him home.
Who is your biggest fancy in the handicaps?
Gabbys Cross looks an excellent bet in the Pertemps Final at 12/1.
He hasn’t been missed by the British handicapper, who’s slapped 6 lb on his Irish mark but that’s still 7 lb short of his current chase rating and 11 lb shy of his top rating over fences. He hadn’t raced over hurdles since April 2021 before this season and in the meantime hasn’t looked the most natural chaser. I fancy there’s mileage in this mark and he’s been minded since finishing second to the aforementioned Jody Ted, shaping really well behind him despite meeting trouble late on. I fancy he’s a big player here.
I’ll throw in a couple more as the handicaps are clearly the most interesting betting mediums. Weveallbeencaught (14/1 Ultima) has to be of interest off a mark of 134. The yard have confirmed there were excuses for his disappointing display last time and his previous form behind Broadway Boy and Flooring Porter on this course reads well enough to think there’s scope off this mark.
Pinkerton and Unexpected Party (Grand Annual) are of interest also off marks of 138.
Which horse has been best backed since the handicap weights came out?
Sa Majeste has been a talking horse for a while now but since the British handicapper left him alone on a mark of 140 has been very well backed (Coral Cup & Martin Pipe).
Milan Tino (Boodles) and King Of Kingsfield (County Hurdle) have also been well punted after favourable treatment from the handicapper.
Which horse is Sky Bet's biggest ante-post liability?
Given all the early-season chat we accrued a fair liability on Jeriko Du Reponet for the Supreme.
He set off as big as 25/1 in October and ended up the 9/2 market leader prior to his workmanlike display at Doncaster. We would be pretty happy with that position as it stands but the likes of Ballyburn in the Gallagher and Sir Gino in the Triumph would be poor enough results too.
Have there been any horses Sky Bet have been keen to keep on side in the ante-post markets?
Given his rating was confirmed prior to the weights reveal, Crebilly (Plate) has been a shade under the general price for the majority of the market’s lifespan. He looks an obvious enough candidate for that race.
It looks a wide open Champion Bumper, but a few of the team are very keen on The Yellow Clay after his eye-catching run in the Grade 2 at the DRF. We’ve been keen to keep that one under the general price and it remains that way at 7/1 NRNB.
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