This week's question revolves around the main things to take note of at the Dublin Racing Festival with Cheltenham in mind - and there's plenty to go through on a big weekend.
It will be no surprise to anyone that the Dublin Racing Festival, with its eight Grade 1s, has been a fruitful source of Cheltenham Festival winners since its inception in 2018.
Any fears that top-class competition five to six weeks before Cheltenham would leave the Leopardstown protagonists at a disadvantage were quickly dispelled after the inaugural DRF in 2018, which was the last port of call for seven Festival winners that year.
Indeed, in its short five-year history the DRF has thrown up 27 Cheltenham Festival winners including Grade 1 victors at prices like 9/1, 14/1 and 25/1, and five handicap winners ranging from 5/1 to 33s.
In its worst year, 2019, it only found two Cheltenham winners from 55 representatives. They were Klassical Dream in the meeting’s very first race, the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, and Envoi Allen in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper.
That was the year Apple’s Jade was sent off 7/4 for the Champion Hurdle (she finished sixth) and Min was 7/2 for the Champion Chase (he finished fifth). Fellow DRF winner Sir Erec was sent off 11/10 for the Triumph Hurdle, but was fatally injured during the race. It was a bad year.
Things picked up slightly in 2020, with Min making amends as he won the Ryanair Chase, while Honeysuckle won the Mares’ Hurdle and Concertista bolted up in the Mares’ Novices' Hurdle.
Three winners from the DRF is not bad, but things seriously took a turn for the better in 2021 when an incredible 10 DRF runners went and won at the Cheltenham Festival six weeks later. They included obvious ones like Appreciate It (8/11), Honeysuckle (11/10) and Monkfish (1/4), and less obvious ones like Mrs Milner (12/1), Vanillier (14/1) and Heaven Help Us - which is what the British trainers were saying by this point - at 33/1.
Last year five DRF runners went on to win at Cheltenham and all of them can be filed in the obvious category. They were Honeysuckle (8/11), Sir Gerhard (8/11), Delta Work (5/2), Facile Vega (15/8) and Vauban (6/4).
The DRF hasn’t been without its problems. Both Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have commented on the unseasonably quick conditions at the track and this year sustained watering has taken place in a bid to produce winter ground for winter horses.
With a dry week in store it remains to be seen how the surface rides but any small-field criticism of the meeting would be grossly unfair.
The Irish Gold Cup has suffered and none more so than in 2019 when a morning field of 10 was whittled down to four by the off due to six withdrawals on the day, including high-profile horses like Al Boum Photo, due to the ‘Good’ ground.
That is well documented, but the average field size for the Grade 1s at the DRF has been 9.9 and, while the Irish Gold Cup could be a small field again due to the behemoth-sized shadow of Galopin Des Champs, that average probably won’t come down too much after this weekend.
Of course, the DRF is a super meeting in its own right, but this column is all about focusing on the Cheltenham Festival, so here are five things to look out for this weekend with Prestbury Park in mind.
1. Supreme pointers – and not just for the Supreme
The most prolific DRF race at Cheltenham has been the Grade 1 Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle, formerly the Deloitte, formerly run over 2m2f.
By the time Samcro won it at the inaugural DRF in 2018 it was reduced to two miles, but he stepped up in trip at Cheltenham when he ran away with the Ballymore over 2m5f.
However, it has proven an excellent Sky Bet Supreme pointer, with Klassical Dream and Appreciate It winning both races for Willie Mullins, a trainer who used it as a stepping stone for the Cheltenham curtain raiser even when it was run over 2m2f thanks to Champagne Fever and Vautour.
Last year Sir Gerhard ‘did a Samcro’, meaning the Tattersall Ireland Novice Hurdle winner has gone onto Cheltenham glory in four of the last five years.
Facile Vega will be bidding to keep that run going this year, but look out for any potential Festival handicap runners for Mullins down the field.
In 2021 Galopin Des Champs was sixth in this race before he won the Martin Pipe, so keep an eye on IL ETAIT TEMPS if he runs with a Festival handicap in mind.
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2. Having a Mares Handicap Hurdle
The second best Cheltenham pointer from the DRF hasn’t been the Irish Gold Cup, the Irish Champion Hurdle, the Irish Arkle or the Dublin Chase, but the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle, the first race on the Sunday.
Concertista was third in this race in 2020 before bolting up by 12 lengths in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, her DRF conqueror Black Tears finishing second in the Coral Cup. 12 months later the pair would finish first and second in the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle.
That was a good year for the Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle, but nothing compared to 2021 when the DRF race found three Cheltenham Festival winners. The winner, Heaven Help Us, followed up in the Coral Cup, the third, Telmesomethinggirl, won the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, and a fifth hurdle faller, Mrs Milner, won the Pertemps.
Clearly, this race is a target for the most progressive mares in Ireland and the race could house a Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle or Coral Cup player yet again, with LIBERTY DANCE of obvious interest for Gordon Elliott.
Owner Tim O’Driscoll had Harmonya Maker as a possible for this race, too, but he relies on Liberty Dance who was impressive in a Thurles Listed race when last seen in December. That was thought to be Davy Russell’s last ever ride at the time, but she might end up being better known for her own exploits, starting this weekend.
3. Fish for Coral clues in the Liffey
It has to be said, though, the Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle has a lot of mares that look too lowly-rated to force their way into a Festival handicap this year, so the Liffey Handicap Hurdle over two miles might be the one to watch on repeat.
This is the old Boylesports.com, Coral.ie and Ladbrokes-sponsored handicap, you know the one, the one that Bleu Berry was 17th in for Willie Mullins in 2018 before he won the Coral Cup at Cheltenham.
Mullins could run Gaelic Warrior in this year’s renewal, where we’ll finally get to find out if he’s a handicapper or better than that - should he take up his entry. The gut feeling is he’s the latter and he’ll be too good for a Festival handicap come March, but Mullins has others to watch.
ICARE ALLEN is the intriguing one, fifth in last year’s Spring Juvenile at this meeting, fourth in the Triumph after that.
He was an eye-catching, running-on third in a Fairyhouse Handicap Hurdle on his only start this season, again over two miles, but he’s related to 2m4f jumpers and he can improve once stepped up in trip. He’ll be worth watching with the Coral Cup in mind.
Ditto BALLYADAM for Cheveley Park and Henry de Bromhead.
Fifth in last year’s County Hurdle at 50/1, he’s not been out since the Galway Hurdle but he’s entered in the Liffey and could well be interesting if he goes back up in trip in the spring. Well beaten in this race last year before his good Cheltenham run, another down the field effort might not be such a bad thing for Festival value seekers.
4. Galopin on the Gold trail
The Irish Gold Cup hasn’t been a prolific pointer to the Cheltenham Gold Cup over the years, but it has had its moments.
Jodami (1993), Imperial Call (1996) and Sizing John (2017) are the three horses to have won both races in the same year, while in the DRF era Minella Indo, fourth in the Irish Gold Cup in 2021, is the one horse to have come out of Leopardstown and win at Cheltenham.
He might be prohibitive odds and the opposition might be average, to say the least, but GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is the single biggest draw this weekend thanks to five chasing starts that have marked him out as the next big thing.
A 12-length winner over three miles on his only go at the distance over hurdles, he has his stamina to prove for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and this can be the perfect springboard, just as it was for Imperial Call and Sizing John, actually, who had the same questions to answer in 1996 and 2017.
He can’t prove he’ll stay the extended 3m2f up the Cheltenham hill this weekend, but he can give the biggest of hints and his performance is eagerly awaited.
5. WPM Arkle pecking order to be unveiled
The Irish Arkle was established in 1956 and has long been a fine pointer to the Sporting Life Arkle at Cheltenham, while most recently Willie Mullins won both races with Un De Sceaux, Douvan and Footpad.
Mullins likes to keep his established stars apart if he can, but he has no qualms about chucking a load of novices together and he ran Blue Lord, Saint Sam and Haut En Couleurs in this race last year, with all three going off 4/1 or shorter.
With Sir Gerhard showing he wasn’t going to be amongst the two-mile mob on his chasing debut it’s left to entries Appreciate It, Dysart Dynamo, El Fabiolo, Saint Roi and Flame Bearer to book their Cheltenham Arkle ticket on Saturday.
APPRECIATE IT has been nibbled at in the SL Arkle antepost market since his Irish Arkle participation became likely and that’s of no surprise. We’ll get a good idea if he’s got the gears for it this weekend, with definitely-a-two-miler Dysart Dynamo the one most likely to take advantage if he’s done for speed.
Like the two-day meeting as a whole, it promises to be both enthralling and informative at the same time.
More in the series
January 25 - Trials Day: Who will be the Festival plunge horse?
January 18 - Can Dan Skelton step up at this year's Festival?
January 11 - Who is Willie's Sporting Life Arkle number one?
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