Patrick Cantlay is three shots back but is tipped to mount a serious final-round challenge at the PGA Tour's Zozo Championship.
Recommended bets
1.5pts e.w. Patrick Cantlay to win Zozo Championship at 12/1 (1/4 1,2,3)
0.5pts e.w. Ryan Palmer to win Zozo Championship at 33/1 (1/5 1,2,3)
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The PGA Tour arrived at Sherwood CC this week with the venue hanging on to a reputation from its previous role of hosting Tiger Woods’ end of season jolly, of one that would keep the players on their toes.
Comments, however, from no less than Tiger himself in the lead-up in which he said the redesign in 2016 had made the course easier have proved bang on the money, and the track has basically offered up an all-out birdie fest.
On that basis rounds of 65 or 66 have been ten-a-penny while there have been six scores of 63 or lower carded across the first three days with lowest round of the week honours going to Richy Werenski, who posted a 61 on day two.
The man with the best combined effort so far is Justin Thomas who, through three rounds, sits on 19 under and he holds a one-shot lead over Jon Rahm with Lanto Griffin a further shot back.
Thomas, who will be searching for his 14th PGA Tour title and his third of this calendar year, unsurprisingly is a regular feature in this Sunday column as it appears most weeks he tees it up I am left assessing his chances in some way of either mounting a charge from just off the pace, or in closing out from the final group.
As noted last Sunday, he did us a favour from off the pace when landing his most recent trophy in Memphis in July, but having sided with him in his three-ball seven days ago when fully expecting a Sunday charge, he never got going and limped home to a 74.
So what of his chances this week? To dismiss a man who has won 13 times on the PGA Tour before their 28th birthday is of course a very risky business and when the dust settles tonight JT may well have cruised to another title. However, at general odds of 13/8 this morning he is not for me for several reasons.
Firstly, despite a record of converting eight from 13 54-hole leads on tour, he has failed on his past two opportunities, in the summer at the Workday and at the WGC Mexico earlier in the year, and in the latter in particular he had a real Sunday shocker.
Secondly, even though Thomas found a way to shoot 67 on Saturday he struggled more off the tee, with his putter and a bit of luck holding things together for him, most noticeably on the par five 13th where he found a way to make birdie after luckily avoiding the creek off the tee, and if he is to close this out he will need to tidy up his driver.
Finally, with the scoring as low as it is, if the man from Kentucky doesn’t bring his A-game and ‘only’ produces a 67 or 68, this quite probably won't be good enough.
Of the chasing pack if Thomas falters then the standout candidate is of course Rahm. The Spaniard hit every fairway on Saturday and needed only 25 putts on his way to a round of 63.
Rahm stated in his post-round interview that the key to him hotting up had been the flat stick, which having misbehaved in Vegas last week and on Thursday this, had suddenly sprung to life after he rolled in a 20-foot eagle putt at 11 on Friday, and from there on in he has played his last 26 holes in 14 under.
We saw with Rahm at the BMW Championship a couple of months ago that when he goes low on Saturday to get in contention he can ride that wave into Sunday, and if I was going to back one of the world’s numbers two and three who tee it up together on Sunday, he would be the one. However, again with so many permutations from off the pace I am reluctant to jump onboard at a general 9/4 (standout 12/5 with Sky Bet).
Alongside Thomas and Rahm on Sunday will be one-time PGA Tour winner Lanto Griffin, who has produced some great stuff over the past fortnight. My concern over a second tour victory coming today for the Houston Open Champion, though, is that he looked edgy down the stretch last Sunday when in the hunt and similarly this week when holding the lead he struggled over the final few holes finding the water off the 15th tee, and it may just be that he gets overwhelmed slightly in the company of the big two.
On that basis, while there are several on -15 such as Webb Simpson and Bubba Watson who will fancy their chances of pinching the trophy with a low one, or indeed the in-form Sebastian Munoz who sits on -16, I am going to take my chances each-way with the two other players three back on -16, namely Patrick Cantlay and, to smaller stakes, Ryan Palmer.
Cantlay was last seen in the hunt at the Shriners only a couple of weeks ago and there is no disguising that with the expectation from many of a Sunday stroll to victory on what is arguably his favourite track on tour he had an absolute shocker, closing with a 73 and opening the door for Martin Laird.
Golf being what it is, though, no two Sundays are the same and it may just be that rather than the poor Sunday play we saw at TPC Summerlin with the pressure off we see something more akin to Cantlay’s flawless closing 64, which saw him lift his last PGA Tour trophy at the Memorial last year; a victory which of course came on another Nicklaus layout, which I am sure is a fact that will not be lost on the Californian.
Cantlay, who has been bogey-free this week, was brought up an hour away in Long Beach so this is very much a home game for him and with his long-term Coach Jamie Mulligan in the gallery this week he will be determined to get the job done.
Fourth for the week from tee to green and eighth in approach play, he just needs the putter to warm up in the way it has for Rahm, and there is certainly a really low one in him. His odds (12/1 generally) strike me as more than fair.
As for Palmer those who read my pre-event preview will know I already have him onside at big prices for the week and I still have a feeling this could be his day.
Winless in a solo event since 2010, it is obviously a huge ask for the Texan, but we've seen a strange stretch of results which has seen Cink win for the first time in 11yrs on tour, Laird for the first time in seven and Kokrak for the first time at all after 230 starts, so it could just be that Palmer will be inspired by those efforts to finally step up again.
Similarly to Cantlay, the pressure is off playing ahead of the front two and with Palmer’s long game and putter all looking strong this week I am happy to have a small play on him at what I still see as decent each-way odds (33/1 bet365).