Can Shin Emperor end the Arc de Triomphe hoodoo for Japan?

Online, there is some split-screen coverage available of the 2012 running of Sunday's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in which a group of Japanese men, in a darkened room lit only by the TV screen, are cheering home their great hope Orfevre.

To the fore is a bespectacled young man wearing the colours carried by his equine hero and, when Orfevre (Christophe Soumillon) quickens to lead a furlong out, it is he who leads an outpouring of air-punching nirvana.

Suddenly, the faces drop like atomic bombs. Orfevre is idling in front and Solemia, who he passed just a few strides earlier, is catching him.

When Solemia goes past and strides clear, the group sink into despair and look ready to reach for the swords which will disembowel them in multiple acts of 'seppuku', better known perhaps as hara-kiri.

I'm not sure if there is a Japanese word for hoodoo but the Arc has certainly offered a gut-wrenching, frustrating experience over the past two decades or so.

Orfevre was one of the country's most talented challengers, but he was incredibly quirky and fared no better 12 months later when beaten five lengths by the brilliant Treve.

He had his chances and so did El Condor Pasa, Deep Impact and Nakayama Festa.

In 1999, El Condor Pasa was soon out in front and remained three lengths clear approaching the final furlong only to be cut back by Montjeu, one of the best Arc winners.

Deep Impact was a racing hero in Japan and his fans converged on Longchamp in 2006 carrying flags and lining the running rail only to see their pin-up beaten a neck and half a length by Rail Link and Pride.

Ignominiously, he was later disqualified after testing positive to a banned substance.

Then, in 2010, more heartbreak when Nakayama Festa led approaching the final furlong only to be pegged back and beaten a head by the Derby winner Workforce.

There have been many attempts to win Europe's biggest horse-race and some, like those above, have run extremely well.

But the quality of riding has not always been helpful. In 2014, Harp Star was given a huge amount to do by jockey Yuga Kawada before finishing a staying-on sixth to Treve.

When Treve won her first Arc a year earlier, the Yutaka Take-ridden Kizuna (one of the best looking horses one could possibly see) also came from way back to finish fourth.

And Newmarket trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam will go to his grave regretting, to put it mildly, Take's ride on the Japanese-owned White Muzzle in the 1994 renewal.

A year earlier, John Reid had just been caught on the horse by the future star broodmare Urban Sea and White Muzzle was strongly fancied to make amends, but Take was always out of his ground.

He finished only sixth to Carnegie and, afterwards, a somewhat miffed Chapple-Hyam suggested it might be a good idea to return home at the earliest opportunity.

Last year, the mare Through Seven Seas (Christophe Lemaire) produced the best performance by a Japanese horse in the Arc since Orfevre when staying on into fourth behind Ace Impact and, on Sunday, the country has yet another live contender in Shin Emperor.

Emperor the one to rule for Japan?

Given Japan's reputation for producing some of the best magnificent middle-distance horses on the planet, it is a little humbling that the three-year-old Shin Emperor is not even the best of his generation back home as he finished only fifth in the Japanese version of the 2000 Guineas and third in the Derby.

But, there are some very strong positives.

French-bred by champion sire Siyouni, Shin Emperor is a full brother to the 2020 Arc hero Sottsass and emulated his sibling with a highly promising run in last month's Irish Champion Stakes.

Before going on to win at Longchamp, Sottsass finished fourth to Magical at Leopardstown and Shin Emperor ran a similarly good trial when third (beaten just a length overall) by Economics and Auguste Rodin, staying on strongly after getting a bit short of room in the home straight.

The French have their traditional Arc trials - the Vermeille, Foy and Niel - but the Irish Champion can also provide excellent preparation.

Way back in 1991, Suave Dancer took Ireland's top all-aged Group One before triumphing at Longchamp and Dylan Thomas, Sea The Stars and Golden Horn did the same.

Found, second to Golden Horn in 2015, ran second again to Almanzor a year later before going one better at Chantilly, when Longchamp was under re-construction and then became (why?) 'Paris-Longchamp'.

So Shin Emperor's fine run, finishing just behind Auguste Rodin and just in front of Los Angeles, was a significant effort.

Sunday's big race may not have its usual strength in depth with Calandagan and Goliath ruled out because of the contentious ban on geldings.

But, on Sunday, Aidan O'Brien revealed that Auguste Rodin could still run accompanied by Los Angeles and last year's fifth Continuous, while Ralph Beckett's Bluestocking remains quoted at around 12/1.

Sosie heads the market deservedly after turning the tables on his Prix du Jockey Club conqueror Look De Vega in the Prix Niel (Delius second) and the Joseph O'Brien-trained Al Riffa is another contender after his second to City Of Troy in the Eclipse and subsequent odds-on Group One victory at Hoppegarten.

However, Shin Emperor must have a great chance. He has the pedigree, the preparation and the stamina and just needs luck in running and, most importantly, a good ride.

Ryusei Sakai, his jockey, didn't do too much wrong at Leopardstown and looks stylish but, as history shows, Paris-Longchamp has sometimes made fools of his predecessors.

The pressure is on. Anticipation back home must be high.

Could this, finally, be Japan's year or will it be yet another disembowelling disappointment?

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Japanese-trained runners in the Arc

1999 (Winner: Montjeu) El Condor Pasa 2nd

2002 (Marienbard) Manhattan Cafe 12th

2004 (Bago) Tap Dance City 17th

2006 (Rail Link) Deep Impact 3rd (Disq)

2008 (Zarkava) Misho Samson 10th

2010 (Workforce) Nakayama Festa 2nd, Victoire Pisa 7th

2011 (Danedream) Hiruno D'Amour 10th, Nakayama Festa 11th

2012 (Solemia) Orfevre 2nd

2013 (Treve) Orfevre 2nd, Kizuna 4th

2014 (Treve) Harp Star 6th, Just A Way 8th, Gold Ship 14th

2016 (Found) Makahiki 14th

2017 (Enable) Satono Diamond 15th, Satono Noblesse 16th

2018 (Enable) Clincher 17th

2019 (Waldgeist) Kiseki 7th, Blast One Piece 11th, Fierement 12th

2020 (Sottsass) Deirdre 8th

2021 (Torquator Tasso) Chrono Genesis 7th, Deep Bond 14th

2022 (Alpinista) Titleholder 11th, Stay Foolish 14th, Deep Bond 18th, Do Deuce 19th

2023 (Ace Impact) Through Seven Seas 4th

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