Ben Linfoot takes a look at the scale of the task potentially facing Bravemansgame if he's pointed at the novices' handicap chase at Newbury on Saturday.
Everyone with half an interest in horse racing knows that Paul Nicholls is struggling for form at present.
Two winners from 40 runners in the last fortnight, a dull strike-rate of five per cent, and A-listers like Frodon and Greaneteen let the side down at the Dublin Racing Festival.
Typically, Nicholls has vowed to ‘crack on’ through the slump. If they’re well at home, they’ll run, even if he is leaving no stone unturned in the quest to find out if something is wrong.
He’s been testing everything at Ditcheat and has put his string on potassium and calcium supplements just in case those levels in a batch of hay is down.
Blue Januaries have not been uncommon for Nicholls in the past, traditionally the time of year he vaccinates his horses, but we’ve come to learn it’s always a short-term thing.
When he had just seven winners in January 2016, he bounced back with 21 victories the following month. When he had three winners in January 2018, he followed it up with 19 wins in the February.
History tells us the winners will start flowing again for Nicholls – and soon.
Launchpad for Nicholls' Festival stars
Betfair Hurdle weekend at Newbury is usually a big one for Nicholls. He has a long association with the sponsor and has used this meeting as a final Cheltenham prep for some stable stars over the years, including Azertyuiop, Master Minded, Kauto Star, Denman and Silviniaco Conti.
In more recent years he’s won the Betfair Hurdle with 33/1 chance Pic D’Orhy and the Betfair Denman Chase with 14/1 chance Secret Investor.
This weekend’s entries include four-time Grade One winner Clan Des Obeaux and the well-fancied Knappers Hill in the Betfair Hurdle, but even those big guns are lower on the intrigue scale than BRAVEMANSGAME in the Betfair Cheltenham Roarcast Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase.
He’s entered in the Denman Chase, too, but Nicholls says that’s just a contingency plan in case something happens to Clan Des Obeaux, so it looks as though Bravemansgame will run in this handicap where he’ll have to give at least 16lb and mainly 19lb to every rival.
Some good horses could be out of the handicap, so the main dangers could be Grumpy Charley, a convincing course and distance winner over the festive period, and Pats Fancy, an 11-length winner over subsequent Cheltenham victor Imperial Alcazar, as they’ll race off their true marks of 143.
But Bravemansgame’s rating of 159 looks a product of him being a novice. He has all the potential in the world to rate much higher once he graduates into open company next season, while his defeat of Ahoy Senor in the Grade One Kauto Star at Kempton has added gloss now that horse has come out and hosed up in the Towton at Wetherby.
Understandably the bookies aren’t prepared to bet antepost on this Saturday’s race as of yet. Bravesmansgame will be favourite, it just looks a case of how short they go. After all, this is a horse that’s already the 5/1 market leader for the King George in December with Saturday’s sponsors.
Top novices have been worth the weight
Perhaps unsurprisingly, highly-rated novices running off big weights in novice handicap chases have a fine record.
I can find 12 horses rated 150 or higher that have run in novice handicap chases, since the significant increase of the genre in 2011, and seven of them won; Puffin Billy and San Benedeto (the latter trained by Nicholls) off 150, Real Steel and Kylemore Lough off 151, Asterion Forlonge off 152, Ar Mad off 155 and Wishfull Thinking off 159.
Class has more often than not come to the fore. And while this would be an unusual preparation for a Grade One novice chase at the Cheltenham Festival, Nicholls' options are limited.
He’s against the idea of going to the Reynoldstown at Ascot next weekend and anything after that is getting too close to Cheltenham.
A best of 7/2 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the Festival, even those relatively skinny odds will be contracting if antepost favourite Galopin Des Champs is eventually pointed at the Turners Novices’ Chase over the shorter trip.
In that scenario Bravemansgame could easily be the shortest-priced British-trained runner of the whole week.
But first he might have to give plenty of weight away to some talented rivals in a novices’ handicap chase. It’s a Brave call in more ways than one from a stable struggling for form, but hopefully Nicholls gives this project the green light.
It’s one of the most fascinating prospects on a great day’s racing.