Breeders' Cup tips: Best Value Bet for 2021 Breeders' Cup Mile at Del Mar
Antepost Value Bet tips
1pt win Sacred in Breeders’ Cup Mile at 25/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet)
There have been 11 three-year-old winners of the Breeders’ Cup Mile since its inaugural running in 1984, nine of which were trained in Europe.
Four of those nine were fillies – namely Miesque, Ridgewood Pearl, Six Perfections and Goldikova – and in total (US and Euro-trained) the race has been won on 10 different occasions by fillies or mares over the years. All of which piqued my interest when learning that William Haggas' SACRED is being prepared for Del Mar on Saturday November 6.
Having been in attendance and fortunate enough walk the course when the Breeders’ Cup first visited the famous venue ‘where the turf meets the surf’ (they don’t often mention the relative eyesore of a car park situated between the two) in 2017, I’m acutely aware of the place's many subtleties.
They range from the killer waffles available on the ‘back side’, stories of paranormal activity in the grandstand after hours, the occasional sea fret that looms in off the Pacific, and of course the sharp nature of the track itself.
There’s no doubt the extremely tight turns of Del Mar's inner turf course caught out one or two of the travelling party in 2017 and Richard Fahey would probably be first to admit that Ribchester found things happening all too quickly for him when ultimately a staying-on fifth from a wide draw in the Mile.
It’s not surprising the tempo of the race was all a little alien to him – the opening two furlongs of that BC Mile (22.30 seconds) was only a few spots slower than the first quarter-mile in the same year’s Turf Sprint (21.98) – and those without blistering early speed from the gate, or an ability to travel sweetly at five-furlong pace, need not apply.
Step forward Sacred, a maiden winner over the minimum trip last summer before being beaten a short-head in the Flying Childers.
This season the daughter of Exceed And Excel kicked off by winning the Nell Gwyn, edging out last Saturday’s Sun Chariot winner Saffron Beach, before a non-staying seventh – beaten just over four lengths - in the Guineas.
Connections were surely tempted to drop her back to six furlongs but, following 104 days away, she slammed a deep field in the Group Two Hungerford Stakes at Newbury (see free replay below).
That form has already been fairly well advertised, fourth Dreamloper finishing third to Saffron Beach at HQ last weekend and sixth home Al Suhail going on to win at Haydock and the Group Two Challenge Stakes.
The way Sacred sauntered through the vast majority of that seven-furlong contest showed her to be better than ever and the international autumn mission makes a lot of sense given all of her form is on good or genuinely quick ground.
Although her one attempt at eight furlongs to date admittedly resulted in her 2021 low point, that Classic test on the Rowley Mile is a world away from what she’ll experience on a dead flat oval in Southern California, if travelling over next month.
She's also exceptionally well bred when it comes to competing in the US, her dam's half-sister Lady Eli was a Breeders’ Cup champion and winner of five Grade Ones throughout her sparkling career. That breeding won't be lost on Haggas, or the team at Cheveley Park Stud, who successfully targeted the 2016 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf with Queen's Trust - who coincidentally nosed out Lady Eli.
While Sacred's likely opposition is clearly unknown at this stage, two of those near the top of the antepost betting – Palace Pier and Baaeed – need to come through a potentially gruelling encounter in the QEII first, while Poetic Flare is going to have to readjust his style again as he’ll be dropping back from 10 furlongs after a gritty third in the Irish Champion Stakes.
With respect to prolific Maurice de Gheest winner Marianafoot, who surely won't get his favoured conditions, one European I’d genuinely fear is Space Blues, who could bid for a swansong victory after looking as good as ever in the Prix de la Foret. He’s another with really strong sprint/seven-furlong form to his name and he evidently goes on all types of going.
The issue with Space Blues, however, is that he’s not been missed in the market at around 5/1, whereas Sacred is generally 16/1 (you’ll have to shop around as Oddschecker isn't pulling through all the live prices), 20/1 with bet365 and 25s at Sky Bet and Unibet if punters are able to take full advantage.
Published at 1500 BST on 10/10/21
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