Breeders' Cup Classic preview & tip: Who will win at Del Mar on Saturday?
Breeders' Cup Classic preview
Recommendation: Hot Rod Charlie to win win at 5/1
Cox holds two live chances
What should be an exciting 2021 Breeders’ Cup meeting culminates with an intriguing renewal of the Classic. Fortunately this year, spectators will be able to soak up the atmosphere on the California coast at Del Mar, where a new name will go down in history as the winner of the 38th running of the US’ most prestigious horse race.
Brad Cox appears to hold the aces, with both his charges top-rated and joint second top-rated on Timeform figures. Unsurprisingly, they currently occupy the top two places in the betting, so where better to start this preview?
Knicks Go has been a revelation since joining this barn at the back end of 2019. He won all his three starts last year, ending with a high-class performance in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Keeneland. He also won the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream in January before taking in the Saudi Cup, fading into fourth behind Mishriff after being taken on for the lead.
On the back of a break, he has since completed a hat-trick in typically dominant fashion from the front.
The Classic is his first attempt at this distance and there’s every reason to believe he’ll stay, though there has to be some reservations as to how much he may have left in the tank if anyone is quick (or brave) enough to take him on.
Classic test right up Quality street
Beaten only once, Essential Quality has certainly lived up to his name.
His only defeat came when charting a wider path than most in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, finishing just over a length in fourth behind Medina Spirit. He made up for that defeat when winning the Belmont next time out in a quick time.
He’s been forced to work hard to win both start since, his latest success in the Travers at Saratoga took his Grade 1 tally to four. There’s little flashy about him but his attitude is commendable, and an early pace battle could well see his proven stamina come into play.
The aforementioned Medina Spirit, another front-runner, had to dig deep to land the Derby. Given a three-month break after finishing third in the Preakness at Pimlico, he won a listed race over one mile at Del Mar before posting a career-best effort when impressively winning the Awesome Again at Santa Anita.
It will be interesting to see how he fares if Knicks Go gets to the front first.
Steve Asmussen has taken a patient approach since acquiring Max Player, with results beginning to pay off. Set some stiff tasks when in the care of Linda Rice, though he did come third in last year’s shortened Belmont and then the Travers, he failed to kick on when first joining this barn. However, a win in the Suburban at Belmont in July, beating the returning Dubai World Cup winner Mystic Guide, and then an emphatic victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga, mark him out as an improved colt. The strength of the latter success is dubious, though it would be folly to totally write him off.
Art Collector had been a promising three-year-old colt last season until seemingly reaching his limit for previous handler, Thomas Drury.
He won on his first start for Bill Mott in a listed race at Saratoga in August before racking up further wins in the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic and the Grade 1 Woodward at Belmont. Seen to maximum effect for that maiden top-level success, he comes here on a roll for all this is tougher.
Big-time Charlie primed to deliver
HOT ROD CHARLIE's success in the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx last time finally saw him get that long overdue win in the highest grade. First past the post in the Haskell at Monmouth in July, but subsequently disqualified as the stewards deemed him at fault for a rival’s fall in the straight, and placed in three Grade 1 events, Hot Rod Charlie is as consistent a performer as any and fully deserves his place in this line up.
Should there be a pace collapse in the stretch, he could well be best positioned to take advantage.
In summary, the speedy Knicks Go is 4Ib clear on Timeform ratings and if he stays, looks the obvious winner. Medina Spirit and Essential Quality head this year’s Triple Crown generation having won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, respectively.
However, there still looks to be some value in the price of fellow three-year-old, Hot Rod Charlie. The US speedfigures rate his recent Parx success up there with the best of Knicks Go’s performances.
He’s as tough as any of these and with Flavien Prat in the saddle, he looks well worth an interest.