Breaking It Down: Murt Khan’s horse racing tips for Sunday

Recommended bets: Breaking it down

1pt win What a Scorcher at 10/1 in 4.50 Newton Abbot

0.5 pts win Treasure the Ridge at 16/1 in 4.50 Newton Abbot

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Dr Richard Newland has a knack of improving horses from other yards and in customary fashion Theo landed a quick-fire double after leaving Shane Donohoe.

He is priced up at 5/4 to land the hat-trick and runs with a 9lb penalty.  The trainer's horses tend to be a bit under-priced in my opinion and at 5/4 it's hard to make a case for him being a value bet.

It's unlike a Paul Nicholls inmate to run over 3m and 2m 1f in a seven-run career spanning eight months. In his last three starts Bistouri D'Honore ran over 3m (pulled up), 2m 4f (pulled up) and won on his most recent start over 2m 1f.

It seemed like he was in trouble but got going late and connections will be hoping the race is run at a decent pace or he could get done for speed today.

The horse who may be worth chancing for me is WHAT A SCORCHER.

She left Oliver Sherwood's yard last year and has proved to be a fun horse for Nikki Evans on the flat and over jumps. Her best run over hurdles came at Cheltenham when finishing third to Cliffs Of Dover and Ainslie.

This run was followed by two disappointing efforts on slow ground, but she had been on the go all summer and for me it's easy to put a line through them.

Having had the winter off she has had three runs on the flat and has performed respectfully, her best effort coming on her latest start.

Today she runs off a three pound lower mark than her effort at Cheltenham as well as having a fair record at Newton Abbot - 1st-2nd-2nd.

I would prefer the ground to be quicker as she may not be the strongest finisher in the race but 10/1 is too big on the book.

TREASURE THE RIDGE is pretty unexposed and has fair form on the flat. He has shown fair promise in a handful of hurdle starts and he may be a tad overpriced at 16/1  

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Posted at 0830 BST on 23/07/17. 

Breaking It Down P&L: +17.17pts 

July: +6.17pts
June: -10.10pts
May: +30pts
April: +21pts