Breaking It Down: Murt Khan's daily horse racing tip
Professional punter and National Hunt expert Murt Khan goes to Cartmel for his best bet of the day.
Recommended bet: Breaking It Down
1pt win Yourholidayisover in 5.45 Cartmel at 10/3
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5.45 Cartmel preview
Everything fell right for Ange Des Malberaux last time out. There was a hard pace up front and he ended up winning convincingly. It's hard to knock that performance but I feel he's up against stronger opposition today and has to contend with a 7lb increase in the weights.
Mash Potato is consistent at this level and his second two runs back over course and distance read well. However, I was a tad disappointed with his last start but he is respected and I expect him to run his race.
The horse I like is the quirky YOURHOLIDAYISOVER, he's a frustrating horse with a four per cent winning strike rate but has the talent to win these type of races all day long.....especially off 82 (6lb lower than chase his chase mark). He will be a test for Fergus Gregory today and if he is travelling well, I hope he counts to 10 before he actually uses the horse's end spurt. For me Richard Johnson failed to do that last time and went too soon on the 10-year-old.
His last hurdle run was at Warwick in May and reads a bit disappointing, but that was after a few months off and he was entitled to have needed that start. Since then he has had two solid runs over chases with a fair flat effort splitting them.
This should be a fair run race and I'm hoping Fergus Gregory delays his challenge until after the last and the horse proves too good for his opposition today.
Posted 0825 BST on 26/08/2017
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Breaking It Down P&L: +33.47pts
August: -1.52pts
July: +15.09pts
June: -10.10pts
May: +30pts