Matt Brocklebank takes an early look at the weekend markets and recommends an each-way play in the big betting heat at Ascot.
Recommended bets, Saturday July 25
1pt e.w. Blackheath in Moet & Chandon International Stakes (2.25 Ascot) at 25/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
You’d have to be fractionally mad to be having an early bet in Saturday’s Group One feature – the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot – which is a pretty sad state of affairs.
It’s John Gosden versus Aidan O’Brien – that much is clear – but a bit of a guess as to whether Enable’s stablemate Fanny Logan will turn up, never mind the Irish posse.
Last year’s Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck is settling down around the 14/1 mark on Monday afternoon and he’d probably be the call if we knew he was going to be declared.
He’s already been talked about as a potential Gold Cup contender for next year in some quarters but did finish a very similar distance behind Ghaiyyath in the Coronation Cup as Enable in the Coral-Eclipse, while his subsequent Hardwicke flop at the Royal meeting could be put down to the bad ground.
We’re in familiar territory regarding the weather this week with largely dry and sunny spells through to Friday and the possibility of some rain on Saturday and Sunday scuppering best laid plans.
Aidan O’Brien openly admits he regretted running Anthony Van Dyck in last year’s King George following late downpours which changed the going and there’s enough to put me off pulling the trigger with him this week.
O’Brien has six in at Ascot presently but Sunday’s Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh muddies the waters further when it comes to Magical, Sir Dragonet, Magic Wand and Sovereign, so we can’t even begin to imagine how the race may look from a tactical standpoint either.
Long story short: no bet.
The Sky Bet York Stakes looks a potentially warm edition of the Group Two and without wanting to jinx the race I can’t see why it would cut up appreciably.
Regal Reality was my idea of a value alternative in the Eclipse, having shaped well at Ascot after a winter gelding operation, so he’s got to be of interest around 6/1 despite a disappointing effort behind Elarqam in this York contest last summer.
Elarqam is back for more and commands respect on his best form but there’s now a sense he was a touch flattered in last year’s Juddmonte International and I’m just not convinced he wants it enough in a finish, for all the close second to Lord North at Haydock earlier this year reads extremely well if taken literally.
On the subject of shirking it, King Of Comedy can’t be backed after carrying his head high again in defeat in the rearranged Diomed Stakes at Newbury. He’s talented, but not one who you’d trust implicitly.
Wolferton winner Mountain Angel reportedly needs time between races and plenty of cut to be seen at his best so he’s arguably the one you’d really be looking to take on if finding an antepost position, but he’s priced up accordingly.
Last year’s Dante winner Telecaster - seemingly rejuvenated in France last time - is preferred at the head of the market but I’ll be waiting for the final field and to see if York gets any rain later in the week before making a final call.
So it’s back to Ascot for a bet and the competitive International Stakes.
Watan did Value Bet followers proud at the weekend and obviously bumped into a really progressive one in Nahaarr at Newbury. Richard Hannon may look to get him out again quickly as he could be in line for a small rise in the ratings, but after such a long layoff you’d have thought the horse may need a bit more time.
I’ve got everything crossed he’s saved another week for Goodwood and a big seven furlong handicap there.
Stablemate Brian Epstein is interesting although I don’t know if he runs here or over the same trip at York on Sunday. He’s been travelling really well in his races since returning as a four-year-old and I’d be amazed if he didn’t land on a nice prize at this trip before long, especially after being dropped 2lb for the last run on the Knavesmire when far from disgraced after being up with the pace throughout.
I’m wary of Blue Mist who doesn’t appear to be finishing off his races particularly strongly, while fellow market leader Ebury showed up well in the Buckingham Palace, winning the battle between the four horses who raced far side, but his trainer’s horses can be hit and miss at the best of times.
That tees things up quite nicely for an antepost play and the eye is drawn to Eshaasy, one of two three-year-olds for John Gosden, along with Verboten.
The former was gelded during the off-season and built on an encouraging effort in the Britannia to win narrowly dropped back to seven furlongs at Sandown. The nose verdict means he’s only gone up 4lb but he still looked a bit green when asked to quicken and no doubt there’s loads more to come in time.
However, his price (14/1) is no more than fair at this point and I’d prefer to focus on last month’s Bunbury Cup.
Six of the past 10 winners of this weekend’s race had run at Newmarket’s July Festival and this year’s Bunbury Cup looked right up to scratch with Buckingham Palace winner Motakhayyel beating Silver Cup Hunt winner Sir Busker, and Gosden’s unexposed Godhead close up in third.
Sir Busker was wayward in the closing stages there and caused some trouble for Spanish City, while Keyser Soze didn’t enjoy a clean passage by any means and both can be marked up for their efforts.
The one who got absolutely no shot whatsoever, however, was BLACKHEATH (25/1 1/4 1,2,3,4 Sky Bet, William Hill) who effectively came home in his own time on the bridle after continuously being denied a run by the far side rail.
He needs a handful to drop out on Saturday having been left on the same mark (90) as at Newmarket, but it’d be disappointing if he doesn’t make the cut with several holding alternative weekend options.
Blackheath has other entries too, at York and Ascot on Sunday, but he’ll surely be left in here come declaration time, meaning we’ll get our money back if he does happen to be balloted out.
If he runs we’ll hopefully have a 25/1 player on our hands as, prior to Newmarket, he'd returned in really good heart with a decent second to Aljady (won again off 5lb higher since) and a convincing victory in a 0-90 handicap over seven furlongs at Yarmouth.
He’s only been to Ascot once before and ended up ninth of 16 in the Cunard Handicap last September, but it’s a race worth revisiting as he was boxed in with a furlong to travel and was only beaten three lengths at the line after coming home quite well.
It was another eyecatching effort, which came from 1lb higher than his current mark so I’ve got no fears on that score.
His three turf wins to date have been on firm and good to firm (x2) ground so he admittedly wouldn’t want much rain on raceday morning, but at 25/1 we can roll the dice now and hope the showers miss Ascot, in which case the going could be pretty lively and right up this horse’s street.
Posted at 1655 BST on 20/07/20
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