Big-race analysis: The Derby | Ben Linfoot takes an in-depth look at the Epsom Classic

It’s the Derby, but not as we know it. For the first time since 1917 the world’s greatest race will be run in July, but it has no less intrigue than those 102 June Derbys that form the bridge between the two.

In many aspects there is a familiar feel to the 241st renewal of the race. Frankie Dettori rides the favourite. We have six bred-in-the-blue Aidan O’Brien contenders from Ballydoyle. We have a 2000 Guineas winner who has to prove he stays.

But this is a Derby of firsts, as well. A first Derby with no crowd. First runners for Ralph Beckett, Jessica Harrington, William Muir, Hugo Palmer and Ed Walker. A first Derby runner for a training team with a joint licence in Paul and Oliver Cole. First rides for Harry Bentley, Ben Curtis, David Egan, Martin Harley and Tom Marquand (after all).

It’s the first time that a horse in the field has already run in the Irish Derby, too.

The occasion is taken out of the equation. It’s largely just the horses in a field, with no funfair, no huge crowd, no packed paddock area buzzing up the more fretful of the Derby cast.

But once they get to the starting stalls it’s the same old test it always was. An examination of speed, stamina, balance and class, a race that more often than not crowns the cream of the three-year-old crop and, sometimes, produces the next big thing in the world of bloodstock, as well.

Weather and ground

After 11mm of rain on Thursday the ground eased to Good, Good to Soft in places, but with Friday and Saturday largely forecast to be dry (a few light showers could fall early morning Derby day) and temperatures warm it’s highly unlikely there will be any extremes of ground. Prediction: Good.

Pace & Tactics & Draw

Of the last 155 races to be run over 1m4f at Epsom, when there has been at least eight runners, stall one has won eight times and stall two has won eight times.

Those two inside stalls fared the worst with strike-rates of five per cent, with stalls seven and eight performing the best, equally, with 19 wins apiece at 12 per cent.

It isn’t ideal being drawn in stall one or two and given that data you wouldn’t pick to come out of those starting berths. Watching previous renewals of the Derby and Oaks, it’s easy to see why.

The field fan across in the direction of those drawn towards the high numbers from the outset as they run uphill to the first right-handed turn, before they then drift back across the track towards the rail as they approach the left-handed turn with about a mile to go.

Plenty of gas can be used up if you want to be prominent from stalls one or two, while accepting your fate too much and you’ll be left with an awful lot to do.

For the textbook stall one ride, you don’t have to look any further back than the last Derby winner to break from that number, Oath, under Kieren Fallon, in 1999.

Fallon and Oath jumped well out of the gates and smoothly attained a position in the top six, without strong persuasion, four horse widths wide as they turned right-handed early on.

As they glided across to the rail Fallon managed to steer Oath into the perfect position, just behind the leaders, where he stayed until he was pulled out to challenge three furlongs from home.

This year’s Derby favourite, English King, being drawn in one adds an extra layer of intrigue to an already spicy contender who gained plenty of news coverage when it was announced that Dettori would be in the saddle at the expense of Marquand.

But if there’s one jockey in the field who can keep things simple from that position it’s Dettori, a man who won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe aboard Golden Horn after a riding masterclass from a wide draw at Longchamp.

The worry for English King is that he starts slowly and gets shuffled to the rear, tactics that were employed with great success in a small field at Lingfield, but ones that might not be so advisable in a 16-runner Derby.

It’s a tantalising tactical dilemma for Dettori and the fate of the favourite could become apparent in the first couple of furlongs, where the likely pacesetters look set to be Serpentine from stall 12 and Khalifa Sat from 14.

With those two in a big field of 16 it is predicted the Derby will be run at a sound enough gallop, but on the evidence of previous running styles, of which there is naturally less information than in a normal season, the line-up does not look overloaded with prominent racers by any means.

The Dreaded Draw (cont'd...)

Forty horses have been beaten from stalls one and two in the Derby since Oath won from stall one in 1999 and they include 11 at single-figure prices: Brian Boru (9/2), Gypsy King (7/2), Aqaleem (9/1), Bullet Train (13/2), Seville (13/2), Ocovango (8/1), True Story (8/1), Kingston Hill (15/2), Dubai Thunder (9/1), Saxon Warrior (4/5) and Telecaster (5/1).

It's amazing to think that Bullet Train, better known for being Frankel's three-parts brother and pacemaker, was sent off 13/2 for the 2010 Derby, but he had just won the Lingfield Derby Trial easily at the time and sported the Juddmonte pink cap. He finished last. Workforce (drawn in stall eight), that year's winner in record time, carried the second colours with Ryan Moore wearing the green hat.

The key question: Will Kameko stay?

Another fascinating conundrum for punters is the stamina query regarding the 2000 Guineas winner Kameko, trained by Andrew Balding.

Many Guineas heroes have run out of petrol in the final half mile of the Derby over the years, although 37 horses have achieved the double, the last four being Nijinsky (1970), Nashwan (1989), Sea The Stars (2009) and Camelot (2012).

Mill Reef, trained by Balding’s father, Ian, would’ve been in that list had it not been for Brigadier Gerard in 1971. The Brigadier beat Mill Reef by three lengths in the Guineas, and the same stamina questions that are being levelled at Kameko were asked of him 49 years ago.

He too had never raced beyond a mile prior to the Derby, while he was also by an American sire and doubts surrounded his ability to stay a mile and a half based on his pedigree.

Mill Reef silenced the doubters, though, with a brilliant Derby win, before he won the Eclipse, the King George and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe later that season in glorious fashion.

Fast forward almost 50 years and we have another horse trained out of Kingsclere with a similar pre-Derby profile, the one difference being that Kameko managed to win the Guineas.

Kameko’s by the American sire Kitten’s Joy, a horse that is regarded as a strong influence of stamina in his native country, as you would expect for a U.S turf horse who won the Grade One Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont over 1m4f.

He’s a strong influence of stamina in the UK and Ireland as well, though. In fact, Kitten’s Joy progeny have a better percentage strike-rate over a mile and a half (in the UK, Ireland and at Meydan) than at any other distance.

They are 11 from 58 at a win strike-rate of 18.97 per cent over 12 furlongs, with the percentage of rivals beaten standing at 59.07%. He’s had plenty more offspring run over a mile and for comparison those figures are 36 wins from 210 at 17.14 per cent (PRB 54.53%).

As for Kameko’s dam, Sweeter Still, by Rock Of Gibraltar, she was a miler like her sire which is the reason for plenty doubting his stamina credentials based on his pedigree.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom on his dam’s side as Sweeter Still is out of Beltisaal, who has produced horses like Gimli’s Rock and Egyptian Warrior that stayed a mile and a half and further.

These things aren’t cut and dried until they go and do it and Kameko is a horse that clearly has plenty of speed, but, considering he’s the best horse in the race on all known form, he should be favourite and a strong one at that.

His pedigree just isn’t enough of a negative to argue otherwise, for my money. Talking of which…

Betting conclusion

English King could be the best mile and a half horse in the field and lose from stall one, I firmly believe that. The fact he was held up at Lingfield strengthens my opinion that he could be poorly positioned early on here and I’m going to leave him out of calculations even as he drifts out to 7/2 from 5/2.

Mogul looks incredibly short at 5/1 from stall two, as well. I get the idea that he’ll come on plenty for his Ascot run but he’ll have to and he was firmly put in his place by KAMEKO in the Vertem Futurity at Newcastle, surface suitability taken into account.

Taking those two out of the equation makes for a solid main bet on Kameko as the available 5/1 looks big. He was hugely impressive as a juvenile and looked a bona fide Group One superstar when extricating himself from an unpromising position to win the Guineas in record time.

That form was franked at Royal Ascot with Pinatubo and Wichita both running well in the St James’s Palace Stakes and he could well be the only 120+ horse in this field.

If there’s another one he’s likely to hail from Ballydoyle as Aidan O’Brien hunts down a record eighth Derby success.

On pure form terms Vatican City is the biggest danger to Kameko on the back of his second in the Irish 2,000 Guineas behind Siskin. That was just his third career start and his first on turf, so the improvement he could make is quite scary.

He found trouble in-running at the Curragh and finished really well, while Padraig Beggy, successful on Wings Of Eagles in 2017, takes the ride.

He has stamina question marks hanging over him, too, as he’s from a very speedy family on his dam’s side, with star milers Gleneagles and Marvellous among his full siblings.

However, Galileo often imparts his stamina onto his progeny whatever the pairing, last year’s Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck a perfect example as he was similarly bred and is related to sprinters.

You need speed to win a Derby, as well as stamina, and recent history shows there’s nothing better around Epsom than a Galileo that has pace. At 10/1 he enters calculations, too.

Finally, Amhran Na Bhfiann’s fourth in a hot maiden was well advertised in the Irish Derby and he’s a Galileo full-brother to Oaks winner Was. You can see why O’Brien has targeted him at Epsom rather than the Curragh and at huge odds he's one to consider for each-way/forecast/tricast calculations.

Investec Derby Verdict

1. Kameko
2. Vatican City
3. Amhran Na Bhfiann

Preview posted at 1320BST on 03/07/2020

One to keep an eye on

Worthily. Get your St Leger ante-post market open with your choice of online bookmaker during the Derby and be quick if John Gosden’s Worthily shapes with promise. A top-six Derby finish on just his second start would be a huge boost for his Leger claims and he’s related to loads of stayers, including half-brother Lucarno who Gosden trained to win the Leger.

A best of 28s for the Leger before the Derby, he could be single figures come Saturday evening.

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

Sky Bet's responsible gambling tools are detailed here and if you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.

Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.