Classic Chase preview: Timeform fancy Alan King's Notachance

The Top-Rated

Captain Chaos (Timeform weight-adjusted rating 172$)

Whilst no easy ride and coming here on the back of three poor efforts this season, there are grounds for expecting a much better showing from Captain Chaos on this occasion. For a start, he’s coming back down the weights and is now only 2 lb higher than for his last success when a wide-margin winner of the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster last February. That followed his second place, off the same mark as at Doncaster, in this race last year under a really aggressive ride from Harry Skelton which saw him beaten 10 lengths by Kimberlite Candy. Captain Chaos was fitted with blinkers for those two runs at Warwick and Doncaster, and it’s a positive sign that they’re back on again here for the first time this season. The return to this longer trip will be in his favour too.

The Improver

Notachance (169)

Representing Alan King whose stable has won this twice before, Notachance has had just five starts over fences which makes him the least exposed runner in the line-up. He was successful after a 10-month absence at Bangor in November when jumping soundly on the way to beating Captain Tommy by three and three quarter lengths. The Two Amigos, who has since finished an excellent second in last week’s Welsh Grand National, was back in third. While Notachance has yet to race beyond three miles, he stayed on well at Bangor in a race that was run at a sound pace on heavy ground, and he gives the impression he’ll stay long distances. Notachance’s other win over fences came under similar conditions at Exeter last season, where he again shaped like a thorough stayer, so he should be very well suited by stepping up in trip here.

The Timeform Flag

Walk In The Mill (Equipment first time)

Walk In The Mill is best known for his exploits over the Grand National fences and will no doubt be heading to Aintree again in the spring. As well as finishing fourth in the Grand National itself in 2019, he’s a dual winner of the Becher Chase, and when successful in that contest last season he beat Kimberlite Candy who went on to win last year’s Classic Chase. Walk In The Mill is normally a sound jumper, so his fall at The Chair in the latest renewal of the Becher was out of character, but it would come as no surprise to see him bounce back here in first-time blinkers, particularly with Robert Walford’s stable on a roll with four winners in the past week.

The Verdict

This can go to the youngest horse in the field, NOTACHANCE, in what looks an intriguing renewal of the Classic Chase. He posted a career-best on his reappearance at Bangor last time when jumping soundly, and the unexposed seven-year-old shaped as though a distance beyond three miles will suit him well. Notachance’s trainer Alan King has won this race before, along with Kerry Lee whose in-form Storm Control is seeking a hat-trick, while other dangers are last year’s runner-up Captain Chaos and, at longer odds, Ladbrokes Trophy fourth The Hollow Ginge.

Timeform weight-adjusted ratings:

172$ Captain Chaos
171 Walk In The Mill
169 Achille
169 Le Breuil
169 Notachance
168 Storm Control