Value Bet columnist Matt Brocklebank highlights some helpful hints for punters heading into a busy period when the Flat and jumps worlds collide throughout autumn.
It’s autumn, if you hadn’t already noticed. The rain is pattering against the window close to where I do what I primarily refer to as work, and a much-feared ‘leaves on the line’ announcement was heard for the first time in ages at the train station just the other day.
If you’re lucky enough to be fully operational from the comfort of your own home, you’ve probably been rooting about at the back of a dusty wardrobe for some slippers (give them a wash, will you?), or may have heard the thermostat clicking into gear over the past day or two.
Some people genuinely loathe it - the worst of all the seasons, they’ll try to argue until they’re blue in the face as well as the tips of their toes. Presumably because of all the coughing and running noses, the mud and the soaking hems, just as we all had to cope with when over-sized denim was in fashion the last time around.
But battle your way through that week-long cold (I’ll stop short at calling it the flu, or worse) and autumn is a tremendous time in which to dwell within the racing bubble.
The heart of the Flat season may be drawing to a close, but there are still so many quality races yet to come and - more importantly - still so many good betting opportunities on the horizon, not least the Cambridgeshire on Saturday, the Irish Cesarewitch a day later and the Club Godolphin-backed version of the marathon handicap at Newmarket a couple of weeks after that. Not forgetting the Challenge Cup at Ascot, Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket and November Handicap at Doncaster.
We’ve a whole load of late-maturing two-year-olds yet to reach anything like their peak and, right through this weekend to the Futurity Trophy in a month’s time, will discover so much more about what 2025 may have in store for the current crop of youngsters.
Chuck in Arc weekend, British Champions Day, the Breeders’ Cup, Melbourne Cup, Japan Cup and the Hong Kong International Races, and in terms of top-class Flat racing we’re well catered for right up until the start of Christmas party season.
Then we have the return of the jumpers (not the nice cashmere ones in the John Lewis window). Two likeable individuals have already divulged which horse wins the Triumph Hurdle in March and I wouldn’t mind so much had they been in agreement, but for all the Cheltenham-obsession and pantomime that comes along with it, I still find it quite hard to knock the winter game with which I completely fell in love in the first place.
It has its issues, of course it does - Warren Greatrex saying he fears for jump racing's future in a recent interview with the Racing Post didn't half hit home - but there's an inspiring rawness to the National Hunt game that you just don’t get in many aspects of sport, or walks of life for that matter. And, while personally preferring to take a bit of time to ease into jumps mode, I've nothing but admiration for those who lap it up passionately from the first sign of a half-decent chasing prospect come mid-October.
But enough of the romance – how do we make it pay when there’s so much going on and the Class 4 novice hurdle from Kelso in the Scottish Borders clashes with the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in the Parisian Bois de Boulogne?
Here are five subtle hints I hope will somehow guide you towards a successful spell of betting this autumn.
Don’t get lazy.
Calm down, I’ve not come at you sharply with a ‘couch-to-5k’ pep-talk - although it almost pains me to state that remaining active really should help with punting given all the many studies linking physical health with general cognitive ability and speed of thinking - but rather a polite nudge to stay on top of the latest information as best you can.
We're all guilty of the occasional lazy reference but if everyone uses the same shortcut, at what point does it stop becoming a shortcut at all? In addition, you’re most likely bumping into bookmaker traders on the same well-worn path.
The scenic route is usually more rewarding in the long run anyway, so take the time to focus on one or two meetings a day if needs be and really try to get a full picture of what’s going on rather than risk spreading research too thinly.
Up-to-date weather reports and forecasts are crucial, but particularly so this time of year when ground conditions can turn from respectable to attritional in a matter of minutes. Look for patterns in horses' profiles and those who may have been brought along to peak at this point in time rather than in spring or summer. Connections are arguably creatures of habit more than the horses themselves so also keep track of which yards tend to catch fire while others begin to cool off (Simon and Ed Crisford have developed a fine end-of-year record since combining, while autumn handicappers trained by William Haggas, David O'Meara and Tim Easterby score well in the autumn stakes).
Read and listen to everything every single trainer, jockey, owner and columnist has to say in the media, but don’t believe a word of it without challenging it first, applying your own logic and ultimately drawing your own conclusions. It’s your cash at stake.
In short, find the energy to gather up as many facts as you can and prioritise those above the chat - such an approach may have led you to backing Green Impact at an inflated price as he looked to confirm maiden superiority over Delacroix at Leopardstown the other week, for instance.
Suit you, sire.
As already touched upon, one fairly basic principle that governs racing results in autumn is weather and resulting state of the ground. No horse will get from point A to point B faster across a quagmire than a relatively sound surface, but some will run less slowly than the rest comparative to their typical pace, while others are manifestly better suited to a more searching test of stamina - therefore putting them at an advantage when underfoot conditions are deeper.
All past performances clearly indicate the official going description on the day, and Timeform have thankfully gone one step further for several decades now, using the clock to gain a far more accurate - and objective - reading than those provided by the on-course going stick. "The GoingStick has had a malfunction that we are awaiting advice from TurfTrax on," read Tuesday's Redcar update on the BHA site. Enough said.
Predictably, all that means is that individual horses who we already know can cope well with soft ground will in most cases be priced up accordingly. What we as punters need to try and understand is whether a horse - or group of horses in any given race - who are so far untried on soft, will be less, equally or potentially much more efficient once the ground begins to turn and water tables rises.
Several factors no doubt contribute and overall mental fortitude is obviously a big deal but, without too much prior knowledge of that, massive clues can clearly be deduced from a horse’s pedigree. And although there is tons of information out there readily available to anyone with even a fleeting interest in breeding, I'd maintain it is still possible to predict and profit from trends formed through sire statistics.
This area is a moveable feast as sires are drifting in and out of fashion all the time, not to mention the many new stallions entering the fray each season, but let's take a step back and, using Proform Racing, briefly shine a light on top-performing sires in turf races during the months of September, October and November.
He's been a high-achiever in most categories for ages now but in Britain and Ireland over the past five years alone backing all of Dubawi's sons and daughters to a level stake would have comfortably seen you end up in profit (+102.88 if betting to Betfair SP).
Godolphin's stalwart has long been the daddy of autumn in the pedigree world and perhaps it should come as no surprise that one of his sons, New Bay, is apparently taking on the mantle of prince.
Ever since his first two-year-olds hit the track in 2020, New Bay has been a success story and his record around this time of year especially is quite extraordinary. Backing all New Bays blind on the grass from September 1 to the end of the season would have produced Betfair SP profits of +342.75 (+134.36 to industry SP).
His 55 winners (from 296 starters fitting that criteria) include top-class filly Saffron Beach in the 2021 Sun Chariot plus a memorable Champions Day double for Bay Bridge and Bayside Boy the following year, and while Persica’s Champion Stakes entry this year is a little fanciful, his sire looks set to be represented in plenty of nice races over the coming weeks. They include quality two-year-olds Anno Domini and Bay City Roller, well-fancied three-year-old Balmacara in the Cambridgshire, and old boy Perotto who might be one of the Balmoral Handicap back at Ascot next month.
Mic drop.
This isn’t necessarily seasonal but something I now do all the time when watching jumps replays back for the purpose of form research: hit the mute button.
I’ve a really high opinion of British and Irish commentators on the whole and, despite all of racing’s many current challenges (wow, the errant apostrophes in the Hamilton race titles on Monday!), reckon the standard of race-callers remains pretty impressive.
Long may that be the case, but they don’t help me make my own rational decisions when it comes to analysing what’s actually happened in past performances, and if you can’t hear the commentary then you’re immediately forced to be more pro-active with where you look, what you see and how you perceive it.
The eye can be drawn to all sort of tiny elements of a race when it’s being relied upon for information – encourage it do so, you might just spot something others haven’t.
Price is right.
Finally, don’t just back horses you fancy. Sounds a bit weird when you write that down, but anyone half serious about their betting will assure you it's good advice.
I’m not suggesting you shouldn’t get stuck into Paul Nicholls' horse in the Persian War because he mentioned it would probably be the one to fly the flag for Ditcheat during his owners' open day several weeks ago, but ask yourself if you’re gaining any sort of edge over those laying the bet at the odds on offer. Chances are the opposite is true.
If you’re happy enough to punt merely for an interest in a ‘big race’ regardless and don't mind swallowing those small, long-term losses, then that’s obviously one's own prerogative, but you’d arguably be much better off just enjoying the race, looking to pick up a few clues and carry that knowledge forward.
That’s where some people may go wrong with horse/trainer trackers such as our own My Stable function. They’re great to pack with horses that might be of interest in future assignments, but until you know the exact scenario of the upcoming race, no horse should be a ‘must back next time’ no matter what.
The trip, the going, the draw and all sorts of other things should feed into that final decision when the time comes, but price trumps the lot of them and if you're betting under the odds you're going to lose.
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