Betfred Derby analysis | How bad is the draw for City Of Troy?

How’s the Derby shaping up?

The 2024 Betfred Derby has taken plenty of hits before it has even been run, what with trial winners from Sandown, Chester and York all missing because of injury, death and personal preference. It's a shame, but this year’s Derby has the look of a below-average renewal.

Of course, such a statement is probably best kept until after the race has been run – and even after that when we can see how it all works out – so we go into the Derby with the usual hopes of finding a good winner, one good enough to take on his elders later in the season in races like the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, one good enough to spark dreams of becoming the next big thing in the bloodstock world.

Admittedly, it has been a while since the Derby produced a really good stallion. There was Camelot in 2012, Australia in 2014 and Golden Horn in 2015, but nothing of note since the latter and the last really good stallion that ran in the Derby was arguably Sea The Stars back in 2009.

Why so? Well, there have been some surprise winners since Golden Horn, most notably 40/1 chance Wings Of Eagles, 16/1 shots Masar and Adayar, and 25/1 winner Serpentine, who scooted away with the Covid-19 Derby of 2020 when it was run in July, but without its usual set of pre-race trials. None of those went on to amount to much after the Derby, barring Adayar, who won the King George, and he went off to stand as a stallion in Japan.

There are sons of Camelot, Golden Horn and Sea The Stars in this year’s race, but all eyes will be on the son of US Triple Crown winner Justify, City Of Troy, who is this year’s key figure for nine-time Derby winning trainer Aidan O’Brien.

His strength in the Derby antepost market seemed notable after his Qipco 2000 Guineas flop, even if the trial winners did keep falling by the wayside, but things took a turn in that regard on Tuesday when he took a little walk in the betting from 7/4 to 3/1, with all the money coming for stablemate Los Angeles (3/1 from 7s).

Still, City Of Troy’s juvenile form stands above his peers in this and he remains the one horse who could blow the race apart, while he remains the obvious stallion prospect, too. If he really hasn’t trained on, or he doesn’t stay, or stall one thwarts him, then this looks a wide-open Derby in which you can make a case for many.

Weather & ground

Between last Tuesday and Monday of this week there was over 30mm of rain that fell at Epsom and that turned the ground soft, but clerk of the course Andrew Cooper says the chalk-based track dries out quickly and sure enough, after a few dry days, it was reported good to soft on Thursday morning.

Potential heavy showers could see that change back to soft before Oaks day, but with Friday and Saturday looking dry and fairly warm (19 degrees), it’s looking likely the Derby will be run on ground just on the easy side.

Derby ground prediction: Good to Soft.

The importance of the draw

Of the last 175 races over 1m4f at Epsom, where there were at least eight runners, stalls one and two have fared much the worst.

Stall one has produced 10 winners at 6%, stall two nine winners at 5%, with stalls three to eight all producing 16 or more winners each at strike-rates between 9% and 12%. When the fields get bigger the higher numbers fare better with stall 14, for example, producing four winners from the last 32 races over the distance with 14 or more runners, a strike-rate of 13%.

You can win from stalls one and two, but it’s clearly a disadvantage and you only have to watch past renewals of the Derby and Oaks to see why. The field fan across in the direction of those drawn towards the high numbers from the outset as they run up to the first right-hand turn, before they then drift back across the track towards the rail as they approach the left-hand turn with about a mile to go, all while running uphill.

Plenty of gas can be used up if you want to be prominent from stalls one or two, while accepting your fate too much and you’ll be left with an awful lot to do.

Starting stalls were introduced in 1967 and only Oath (1999) and Adayar (2021) have won from stall one after dream rides from Kieren Fallon and Adam Kirby. No horse has ever won the Derby from stall two.

Things will be tough for Sayedaty Sadaty from two, then, and it will be interesting to see if he can get in a prominent position, as he likes to, from that draw, and I would think Euphoric, from stall nine, looks the most likely frontrunner now.

But the big news from the draw was City Of Troy being allotted stall one, and in a twist of fate it seems his performance in the Guineas has made his Derby task all the more difficult, as his Newmarket flop has seen a bigger field take him on at Epsom than would likely have been the case if he had won or run well in the first Classic of the season.

With 15 rivals breaking to his right, Ryan Moore will have to produce a Fallon-type worldie of a ride to win from there and suddenly City Of Troy has an uphill task in more ways than one.

Former jockey Fran Berry, speaking on a Sporting Life pre-Derby podcast a few years ago, explained: "When you are drawn low you have so much running to do to get across.

"It's not even just that running to that right-hand turn – you're going up a hill and with the congestion you get at the pinch point you invariably get a bump which knocks the stuffing out of your horse as they're climbing the hill.

"It doesn't allow horses to get into a rhythm, get a breath, and it's very difficult to secure a smooth passage from that inside berth. You have to work extra hard to keep hold of your place and you can see why horses pay a price for it."

The key question: Can O'Brien win Derby number 10 this year?

With nine Derby wins to his name this is a question to ask yourself every year and the answer is usually yes. But it was ‘no’ in 2018 when Saxon Warrior was only fourth, it was ‘no’ in 2021 when Bolshoi Ballet was seventh and it was ‘no’ in 2022 when Changingoftheguard was fifth.

It looked like it might be ‘no’ last year until Auguste Rodin’s phoenix-from-the-flames moment and such a resurrection is what’s required from O’Brien’s City Of Troy, who was obviously a well-beaten ninth in the Qipco 2000 Guineas.

There will be punters prepared to forgive him that run. For those keeping the faith, it’s not so much the excuses coming out of Ballydoyle, or the fact Auguste Rodin did it last year, but his tremendous two-year-old campaign that promised so much – especially with a view to when he moved up in trip.

Several beaten runners have come out of the Guineas and won the Derby and in recent years too – see Australia, Masar, Auguste Rodin – but City Of Troy’s 2000 Guineas performance was so disappointing run the percentage call has to be to leave him out of calculations, especially at relatively prohibitive odds, and especially from stall one.

If not City Of Troy, O’Brien could still win the Derby with Los Angeles, drawn in four. A big, well-balanced, son of Camelot, he’s unbeaten and there’s confidence in the market in his chance.

However, his revised odds make it an easy decision to let him go unbacked, as 7/2 looks very short for a horse that has to step up a fair bit from his Leopardstown Derby trial win, a race that hasn’t found the Derby winner for 22 years.

Euphoric, the O’Brien third string in a team of three, was behind Los Angeles at Leopardstown. Even before the draw, it looked like it could be one of those ‘no’ years for O'Brien. After City Of Troy bagged the one stall, it looks even more likely to be the case.

More Epsom Derby content

• Timeform Q&A: Big questions answered
• Horse-by-horse guide and Derby verdict
• Who will benefit from testing conditions?
• How to approach the City Of Troy conundrum
• Who will truly stay the Derby distance?
• Fran Berry's fancies
• Derby Preview Podcast
• When Aidan O'Brien has worked his magic before
• Simon Holt: Remembering Sir Henry Cecil

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