Dan Skelton is confident he has Grey Dawning in the shape to deliver in Saturday’s Betfair Chase despite being forced to miss his intended seasonal reappearance.
The Turners Novices’ Chase hero is ante-post favourite for Saturday’s showpiece but plan-A had been to run in the bet365 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby or on a graduation chase at Carlisle the following day.
However, the dry autumn and prevailing conditions meant he didn’t do either so now lines up in his first open Grade One on his seasonal return, not a time when he’s previously been fully effective.
"He’s been for a racecourse gallop and did very well. Obviously the last two seasons he’s been beaten on his seasonal debut, he got beat over hurdles and got beat in a novice chase so his record there looks like there's a patch in it first time,” the trainer said.
“But the only reason that has been the case is we’d been very easy on him at that time of the season. You know novices are going to improve but this is a totally different kettle of fish.
"He needs to be ready against the more seasoned and - dare I say it - better horses first time up which is why we’ve put an awful lot of effort into getting him as ready as he can be, and I honestly believe he is.”
And Skelton feels there are other factors in his favour at the weekend.
“We know he goes around the track, he’s proven that already which is a big plus, he stays the trip already, he did that at Warwick, he’s a Grade One winner and carries through top form from last year as a novice,” he reasoned.
“I’ve never ducked the situation that he has to come up to their level, it’s not the other way round. He has to get up to the Grade One open horses rather than they have to reach up to us. I think he can do it; I’ve always thought this horse could be a progressor all the way through his life and - touch wood - he’s done that for us so far, but it will be a totally different test on Saturday."
Physically, he isn’t the sort to change much after another summer at grass.
“He’s actually quite a light-framed horse, you’d call him a little tubular, he’s not a big, deep-girthed old fashioned National Hunt chaser, he’s not like that at all. He’s quite a light type but a real athlete and he looks fantastic," the trainer enthused.
“He’s never a horse who carries a lot of weight and you’ll see him on Saturday and you’ll think ‘yes he does look ready’.”
Grey Dawning carries a Timeform master rating of 161p with him into the Betfair Chase and is a horse connections have long thought could reach that sort of level.
“I’ve always thought he was going to be really, really good. He just has the attitude at home, the way he gallops and the way he sees out his gallop, you always think there’s a bit left. They’re the best ones.
“It hasn’t surprised us that he’s really, really good but you’re always going to be surprised when you win Grade Ones because you can’t assume any horse is Grade One horse. That’s unfair on them but we always thought he’d be pretty good."
Good enough to go for chasing’s blue riband in March?
“We want to go down the Gold Cup route, we’d love to become a Gold Cup horse. That’s what you start out hoping, then the racecourse will tell you whether that’s realistic or not. We're not saying ‘yes he’s a Gold Cup horse’ and that’s that. We respond to each run and given the information we get on that day, we’ll plot the season," Skelton said.
“While Saturday is very, very important, we’re not going there apprehensive in any way, we’re going there hopeful with a really good horse. He’s as good a staying chaser as we’ve had at this stage of their life.
“Obviously, Protektorat sets the bar quite high for us in terms of seasoned chasers but new legs and new blood puts pressure on the older ones."
Having been forced to miss out at Wetherby and Carlisle, Skelton is confident conditions at Haydock won’t be an issue.
“Personally, I think they’ll get more weather than they’re expecting. I’ve looked at all the different charts and there’s a cold week in progress and I think it will ride quite dead and a bit tacky."
The celebrations after Protektorat’s win in 2022 were wild, and don’t expect anything different on Saturday if his younger stablemate is able to follow in that one's hoofprints.
“Of course they’ll be the same. It’s a different set of owners, the Kirkland family have been big supporters of ours and Robert has a great horse. He’s a great owner, he knows he’s got a great horse, and it would be great to win on Saturday and he would love every second of it if he did.
“But at the same time, he’s a very respectful owner so if he didn’t win we’d come back another day and have another go but you just want to win those big ones don’t you - and it’s lovely to have a proper contender."
And after speaking to the media for about 10 minutes in the winning connections room at Cheltenham on Sunday, Skelton clearly felt it was time to cut to the chase.
“You all want to know the answer to the question – how good is he, don’t you?” he smiled.
“The truth is we’ll find out the answer on Saturday – at that point of his life. Then we’ll go on to the next run and find out at that point of his life how good he is again.
“I can’t tell you he’s ten pounds better than Protektorat - of course I can’t, that’s ridiculous – but the racecourse tells us and that’s the fun of this job and this sport.
"The racecourse is ultimately where the shouting stops.”
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