Our form expert has four selections for the ITV1 action at Ayr and Newbury on Saturday including in the Ayr Gold Cup.
The Verdict: Saturday, September 21
1pt win Revich in 1.15 Ayr at 8/1 (General)
1pt win Ithacas Arrow in 2.05 Newbury at 12/1 (General)
1pt win Brian in 3.15 Newbury at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Mostabshir in 3.35 Ayr at 12/1 (General)
Gosdens making the Most of it
Lots of in-form horses line up in the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup and it’s no wonder American Affair comes in here as favourite after his last-gasp win in the Portland at Doncaster a week ago, where he defied a troubled passage to get up.
He’s 3lb wrong under a penalty, but he should enjoy going up to six furlongs and thriving horses with a recent run under their belt tend to do well in this race.
The one thing on my mind with him is his low draw on the far side, as the bulk of the pace looks middle to stands’ side and he could end up poorly positioned whether they split into multiple groups or not.
Plenty are in with chances in the popular cavalry charge, but I like the look of John & Thady Gosden’s MOSTABSHIR who looks to have one of these big-field handicaps in him.
It’s probably fair to say Shadwell weren’t expecting an Ayr Gold Cup horse when they bred this half-brother to Juddmonte International winner Mostahdaf but, while he’s bred for a mile, he clearly loves the tempo of a big field over shorter distances.
Fourth in the Buckingham Palace over seven furlongs at Royal Ascot, he was second a furlong out and lost a couple of places late on, while he caught the eye on his first ever go at six furlongs in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood last time.
He was in the favoured stands' group that day, but he moved into contention nicely and kept on well to finish close-up behind Get It and Apollo One, who had been ridden much more prominently throughout, the winner making all.
It was evidence he can cut it over six and the nature of the Ayr Gold Cup should really suit, with Jim Crowley having options regarding his track position from a middle draw.
Gosden has only had one runner in the Ayr Gold Cup (since 1997, anyway) and it wouldn’t usually be a race on his radar, but it looks the perfect spot for Mostabshir after his Goodwood effort and a bold bid is expected.
The Verdict: Back MOSTABSHIR in the 3.35 Ayr
Get Revich quick at 8/1
Earlier on at Ayr Richard Spencer’s REVICH could easily bounce back to form in the LiveScore Bet Daily Extra Places Handicap over a mile.
They might name this race after Revich one day, as he is going for his third win in the contest and he was beaten half-a-length in a photo in the same race in between those victories, as well, while the handicapper has given him a golden opportunity for the hat-trick.
His two wins in this race came off marks of 92 and 95 and while there is a reason he lines up here off a mark of 88 there has been plenty of encouragement in his last two performances.
At Goodwood two starts ago he shaped well and was only beaten six lengths after finding trouble in running, while last time at Chester he was drawn wide and raced wide throughout, his jockey accepting his fate as he coasted home beaten just over five lengths in 11th.
The good news is the assessor dropped him 5lb for those two runs and he’s looking very well treated now, while he should get the strong pace he craves in his favourite race.
The Verdict: Back REVICH in the 1.15 Ayr
Follow the life of Brian in Mill Reef
Over at Newbury it’s the Group 2 Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes and the ground turned soft after a short sharp thunderstorm that delayed racing on Friday.
None of the market leaders are sure to appreciate this turnaround in the ground and it brings Sylvester Kirk’s BRIAN firmly into the equation.
He’s well experienced for a juvenile after seven runs and his form stacks up well, as he lost by a neck to the Gimcrack winner Cool Hoof Luke on his second start and he did the best of those held up in the rear when third in the Sirenia Stakes, behind the reopposing Symbol Of Strength, last time out at Kempton.
Both of those were on the all-weather, but his turf form is just as strong and he looked the best he has been on soft ground when winning by over four lengths at Newmarket in August, while he has a five-and-a-half length win at Newbury to his name, too.
His experience and his ability to go on the ground look vital assets in against less experienced for rivals and he shouldn’t be underestimated after being pitched in against horses with sexier profiles.
The Verdict: Back BRIAN in the 3.15 Newbury
Arrow to hit the target at Newbury
Finally, ITHACA’S ARROW is another who will appreciate cut in the ground in the Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap at 2.05.
The son of Ulysses ran over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival and he has returned on the Flat in cracking form after a six-month break, finishing second at Goodwood on his return before winning at Chester.
Both of those runs were on soft ground and he improved significantly for his return, bolting up at Chester after travelling strongly throughout.
He’s up 5lb in a better race just six days on, but he’s clearly thriving and with good Newbury form in his locker he can go well getting weight from everything.
The Verdict: Back ITHACA’S ARROW in the 2.05 Newbury
Preview posted at 1555 BST on 20/09/24
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