Our form expert has had 20/1, 10/1 and 6/1 winners in recent columns and he has three selections at Kempton Park and Aintree on Boxing Day.
The Verdict: Thursday December 26
1pt win Heltenham in 12.30 Aintree at 6/1 (General)
1pt win Leave Of Absence in 12.45 Kempton at 14/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor, Coral)
1pt win L’Homme Presse in 2.30 Kempton at 11/1 (BetVictor, Ladbrokes)
Presse to pounce in classy King George
Venetia Williams has been winning big race after big race on a weekend ever since Royale Pagaille landed the Betfair Chase and she can continue the run by snaring a fabulous edition of the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase with L’HOMME PRESSE.
The top of the market is packed with potential with Il Est Francais, Spillane’s Tower, Banbridge and Grey Dawning disputing favouritism, but none of them have proven themselves in a top three-mile chase in open company yet.
That could all change here for one of them, but L’Homme Presse at his best is arguably the standard setter and he’s been underestimated largely on the back of a 286-day absence since his good fourth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
The extra distance of a soft-ground Gold Cup just stretched his stamina a bit too far that day, but he still held every chance two out and his best form over three miles gives him a very good chance of victory.
Crucially, his best form has come when running fresh, his superb Rehearsal Chase success at Newcastle off a mark of 164 coming on the back of a 232-day absence, while his Lingfield win over subsequent Ryanair winner Protektorat in January came after 391 days off the track.
Sent off 9/4 favourite for the King George two years ago, he still held every chance when Charlie Deutsch suffered a soft unseat at the last and that came a month after his Newcastle effort - it could be crucial Williams pitches up here without a prep run.
One concern is that he can jump to his left, but he was still running a big race despite doing so here two years ago and I’m hoping he jumps a bit straighter first time up. If he does he has as good a chance as any in the race for a yard who keep on making the headlines in the big races.
Of the aforementioned quartet at the top of the betting it’s Il Est Francais that is feared most. He was electric in the Kauto Star on this card last year and if he’s in that sort of form he could be tough to beat, but it is a concern he burst a blood vessel when pulled up last time.
Grey Dawning had a tough race at Haydock and the ground might be a bit quick for Spillane’s Tower, while Banbridge has to prove himself over three miles.
They shouldn’t mess about here with Il Est Francais, The Real Whacker and Grey Dawning all likely to be up there, but I’d expect Deutsch to sit just off the leaders in the box seat in a super renewal packed with intrigue.
The Verdict: Back L’HOMME PRESSE in the 2.30 Kempton
Can’t Leave Honeyball chance alone
It’s a brilliant undercard at Kempton with Lossiemouth v Constitution Hill an unmissable clash in the Christmas Hurdle, while The Jukebox Man and Hyland head a small but select field for the Kauto Star.
The other bet I like at Kempton comes in the first race, though, with Anthony Honeyball’s LEAVE OF ABSENCE looking a big price at 14/1 for the Ladbrokes Best Odds Guaranteed On Racing Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase over the extended 2m4f.
This is a good race with many horses in with chances, but Leave Of Absence had a nice sighter at this track last time when second to Iberico Lord in a good race where the going got too tough for The Four Sixes and Gidleigh Park, two nice chasing prospects rated in the 130s.
Leave Of Absence ran a cracker considering his 758 days off the track and the 2m2f looked a bit sharp for this strong galloping former pointer on chasing debut.
The step up in trip can help his jumping and after being too good for the 145-rated chaser Blow Your Wad in both a bumper and over hurdles, there’s every chance he’s well treated off 127 on handicap debut.
This might be too hot too soon, but at 14/1 he’s too big to resist.
The Verdict: Back LEAVE OF ABSENCE in the 12.45 Kempton
Heltenham to score for Skelton
Finally, it’s a big day for Dan Skelton with Grey Dawning and Country Mile running in the Grade 1s, while he has a host of other big chances, too.
One of those is HELTENHAM over at Aintree in the William Hill Betting Done Properly Handicap Chase and he’s worth siding with in a race that looks a good opportunity for him.
Dropped 3lb after his first defeat on his fourth go at Newbury last time out, he looked to need that run after over seven months off and he should strip fitter here.
All his Newbury wins came over this trip of 2m4f and a left-handed and flat track suits him well, while four of his career wins have come in single-figure fields so this six-runner heat looks ideal.
He’ll be held up again, but Westerninthepark and Imperial Saint look likely to set the pace and jockey Ciaran Gethings gave him a great ride when the pair teamed up to win the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury from subsequent Coral Gold Cup winner Kandoo Kid last March.
He was going well on him when he fell four out at Ayr in the spring, too, just one of the runs that suggests he’s got a cracking chance against these rivals from a perch of 139.
The Verdict: Back HELTENHAM in the 12.30 Aintree
Preview posted at 1615 GMT on 23/12/24
Click here for full Ben Linfoot tipping record
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.