Our form expert started May with a bang with a few weekend winners including Liberty Lane at 10/1 - don't miss his bets for day one of the Chester May Meeting on Wednesday.
The Verdict: Wednesday, May 8
1pt win Beyond Borders in 1.30 Chester at 10/1 (General)
1pt win Due For Luck in 2.35 Chester at 8/1 (General)
1pt win Agenda in 3.40 Chester at 10/1 (General)
Take on O'Brien with... O'Brien
As always the Derby trials will make for some fascinating viewing over the next fortnight and they take on even greater significance following City Of Troy’s unexpected poor showing in Saturday’s QIPCO 2000 Guineas at Newmarket.
It has been interesting listening to Aidan O’Brien in the fallout and particularly his comment on perhaps not having done enough with him through the winter, City Of Troy becoming his 10th three-year-old that has been beaten at odds-on this year from 12 representatives (it's now 11 from 13).
Certainly, punters should be treating his first-time-out three-year-olds with caution for the time being, particularly at skinny prices, and for that reason alone I’m inclined to take on his Grosvenor Square in the Group 3 Boodles Chester Vase Stakes.
O’Brien has a tremendous record in this race and at this track in general and, of course, this Grosvenor Square might win doing cartwheels, he is the form pick after all, but it has to be a consideration that this horse, off 200 days, might need the run.
However, that’s not to say O’Brien can’t win the Chester Vase for an 11th time, with his second string, AGENDA, who looks a bet at 10/1.
There are no rustiness worries with this son of Galileo as he has had a run this year, and an impressive win, no less, on the Dundalk polytrack, overcoming an average gallop to run out a decisive winner by over four lengths at the end of March.
The third home, Sea The Polaris, has come out and franked the form and Agenda looks well worth a place in a trial on that evidence. Indeed, he’s arguably the form pick, betting without his stablemate, and he looks underestimated in the market on the basis of O’Brien’s jockey bookings.
With Ryan Moore on the favourite it’s interesting to see Joseph’s jockey, Dylan Browne McMonagle, take the ride (he's yet to ride Chester, but will get a taste aboard Galileo Dame in the Cheshire Oaks at 3.05), and he should get a nice rail position here wherever he slots in, while there’s every chance his mount, out of a Royal Ascot-winning sprinter, might do his rivals for a bit of pace.
There has been money for Charlie Appleby’s Hidden Law who is second favourite, but none of his three previous Chester Vase runners ran anywhere near market expectations and he looks short enough now, while Cadogan Place, who beat him at Southwell, has a tough task here after just the one run.
The Verdict: Back AGENDA in the 3.40 Chester
One step Beyond in the opener
Earlier on the card, in-form Karl Burke’s BEYOND BORDERS can kick Chester off with a win from stall one in the CAA Stellar Handicap over six furlongs.
The son of Harry Angel was a rapid improver at the end of his two-year-old campaign, winning three times, including off a mark of 82 and he’s only 3lb higher here.
He needed his run at Lingfield on his return and then he ran a cracker on unsuitable heavy ground in a red-hot handicap at Pontefract last time, where he finished ahead of two subsequent winners in a five-runner race.
He was beaten over six lengths by the winner, James’s Delight, but that horse won a Newmarket handicap off a 9lb higher mark on Saturday, so Beyond Borders faced a tremendously difficult task and he ran well.
Down another 1lb he looks primed to go well here with two runs under his belt, especially as he should get a lovely set up from the plum draw with pace immediately to his right in Old Chums and Call Glory.
If he can track those two things might just open up perfectly for Clifford Lee.
The Verdict: Back BEYOND BORDERS in the 1.30 Chester
Due a win for the Quinns in dash
Finally, similar comments apply about John & Sean Quinn’s DUE FOR LUCK in the tote.co.uk Saddle-Up For More Than Racing Handicap over five furlongs (2.35).
This horse’s form tailed off towards the end of his juvenile campaign but he was at his best on his first three starts last season and getting with him early in the campaign could be key.
He certainly doesn’t look badly treated off 83 on his three good runs last year, the third of those coming in handicap company at this track, off the same mark, back in September.
Hugely unlucky that day, after having to wait an age to get out, he ran on once in the clear and was beaten a head, an average pace contributing to him being caught on heels.
He should get a stronger gallop to chase in this and Jason Hart could get a lovely trip through from stall two if his horse is on his A-game, and, crucially, he should enjoy the better ground, unlike a few of his rivals.
The Verdict: Back DUE FOR LUCK in 2.35 Chester
Preview posted at 1440 BST on 07/05/24
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