Our form expert has four selections for ITV's Saturday racing at Ascot, Haydock and Lingfield, including in the Oaks Trial.
The Verdict: Saturday, May 11
1pt win Strong Impact in 2.05 Ascot at 15/2 (General)
1pt win You Got To Me in 2.25 Lingfield at 6/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Mostabshir in 2.40 Ascot at 8/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt win Ballee in 3.15 Haydock at 12/1 (General)
You Got the one in Oaks trial
The racing roadshow moves on from Chester to Lingfield and Ascot on Saturday with more Derby clues on show in the William Hill Lingfield Derby Trial, the Galileo colt Illinois looking to push forward his Epsom claims.
It would not be a surprise to see him put his hand up for the Derby here as it looks like Aidan O’Brien’s three-year-olds have been badly in need of the run and that’s how it looked when he was a laboured third at 8/11 in the Ballysax.
A full-brother to Chester Vase winner Venice Beach and a half-brother to King George and Arc winner Danedream, he should thrive now stepped up to a mile-and-half and he’s expected to reverse the Leopardstown form with stablemate The Euphrates.
Roger Varian’s Defiance could be the biggest danger and with those two disputing favouritism it’s a no-bet race for me, with the William Hill Oaks Trial 35 minutes earlier looking a more appealing betting heat.
That’s as long as you are prepared to take on hot-favourite Danielle, a Cracksman filly who bolted up at Wetherby (yes, Wetherby) last time out for John & Thady Gosden.
She surged into the Oaks picture there after winning by 12 lengths, but it wasn’t much of a contest and Gosden won the same race with Fanny Logan before she was turned over in an Epsom trial (at Chester) a few years ago. The Wetherby race was on soft ground, as well, and the very different conditions might not be in her favour here.
Her presence at the top of the betting around 5/4 shapes the market, making the 6/1 about Ralph Beckett’s YOU GOT TO ME an attractive price.
Beckett has started the season slowly, but his yard is warming into the season now and it was encouraging to see his Forest Fairy win the Cheshire Oaks in game fashion on Wednesday.
He’s clearly starting to run his more forward fillies and, of his two representatives in this race, You Got To Me looks a major player, being a daughter of Nathaniel who is bred for this trip.
Her dam was a Listed winner at 1m4f and half-brother Ziggy is a 1m4f winner, too, so huge improvement is expected now she steps up to that distance from a mile.
She won over 1m at Kempton on debut and then ran an eyecatching race in the Listed Montrose Fillies’ Stakes at Newmarket in November, staying on for fifth after being outpaced.
That looked a good race, with the winner Regal Jubilee running in the 1000 Guineas, while the fourth home Beautiful Love did well out in Meydan at the start of the year.
Beckett has won this race three times and I wouldn’t read too much into Rossa Ryan riding the stable’s other representative, Treasure, for The King, as Hector Crouch was on this filly both times at two.
The Verdict: Back YOU GOT TO ME in the 2.25 Lingfield
Most appealing in Victoria Cup
Over at Ascot it’s the Lavazza & Ascot 10 Year Anniversary Victoria Cup with a big field of 22 lining up and the early pace looks fair across the track.
Who knows what the jockeys will do, we could be looking at a split or one big group veering towards one of the rails, probably the stands' side if recent renewals are anything to go by.
However it pans out, we’re looking at a strong end-to-end gallop and that will suit the Gosdens’ MOSTABSHIR whose price has held up well thanks to support for others.
The available 8/1 is more than fair given his profile, a high-class and lightly-raced horse who has often hinted he could dine at the very top table.
He did just that on his fourth racecourse start, running sixth in Paddington’s St James’s Palace Stakes, and while things didn’t quite go his way after that it’s telling that connections have persevered with him.
Gelded last summer, he’s taken his time to find his feet but there was loads to like about his reappearance at Kempton in March where he looked the likely winner late in proceedings before being swamped to his outside on the line.
He certainly took well to the blinkers second time, while he proved he can compete off his current mark of 103 and the expectation is he can come forward from that run now he tackles a big field and a likely strong pace.
The drying ground looks in his favour, too, as he's never looked as good as when he bolted up on good to firm ground at York this time last year, while his proven ability over further could be vital in the final analysis, as well.
The Verdict: Back MOSTABSHIR (E.W) in the 2.40 Ascot
Strong chance for Varian
Earlier on at Ascot, STRONG IMPACT looks a bet for Roger Varian in the Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% British EBF Fillies' Handicap over the straight mile.
This daughter of Saxon Warrior is from a family of slow burners and she could take off as a four-year-old, while I like her dropped back to a mile at a track like Ascot.
Certainly, she travelled strongly when running second to stronger stayer Born Ruler over 10 furlongs at Sandown in handicap company last September, where she was a good second off her current rating of 81, a hint that she could be well capable off Saturday’s terms.
She needed her run at Chelmsford in April where the first two home were ridden with more restraint and if she comes forward from that, as expected, she can run a big race under Silvestre De Sousa.
The Verdict: Back STRONG IMPACT in the 2.05 Ascot
Ballee to strike for Hobbs in Swinton
Finally, it could be worth taking on hot favourite Lark In The Mornin in the Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock.
Joseph O’Brien’s Cheltenham Festival winner is certainly an interesting raider, but his heavy ground Fred Winter win is not working out very well and he has to defy an 8lb rise in the weights.
Paul Nicholls has two good chances as he bids to win his first Swinton Hurdle, but both Rare Middleton and Afadil have been well found and I prefer the chances of BALLEE at 12/1.
Philip Hobbs & Johnson White have had a job on getting this horse to settle since they got hold of him, but his keenness has not hampered his development and he won a couple of novice hurdles very impressively on good ground in the first part of the season.
Last time out at Aintree, in the conditionals race, he pulled hard again in a prominent position but stuck on really well for second, doing much the best of those up with the pace.
With Micheal Nolan back on board it is with hope he gets him to settle nicely amongst a likely strong gallop and, if he does, a career-best could well be forthcoming.
The Verdict: Back BALLEE in the 3.15 Haydock
Preview posted at 1545 BST on 10/05/24
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