Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for Dublin Racing Festival, Sandown and Musselburgh
By Ben Linfoot
Horse Racing
Sat February 04, 2023 · 2y ago
Our man had 8/1 and 20/1 winners last Saturday thanks to Ahoy Senor and Cooper's Cross and he has five selections for another bumper Saturday.
The Verdict tips: Saturday February 4
1pt win Red Rookie in 1.45 Sandown at 4/1 (General)
1pt win Truckers Lodge in 2.03 Musselburgh at 7/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)
1pt win Broken Halo in 3.30 Sandown at 11/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Socialist Agenda in 3.16 Musselburgh at 10/1 (bet365)
1pt e.w Max Flamingo in 3.40 Leopardstown at 20/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
DRF takes centre stage at Leopardstown
The best Grade 1 action you’ll see this side of Cheltenham takes place at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown this weekend and I’m looking forward to going over and seeing the likes of Galopin Des Champs, Appreciate It, State Man and Blue Lord in the flesh.
It could be a Willie Mullins-fest and if he wins the opening Grade 1 Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle with either Quais De Paris or Grangeclare West then the top-level weekend eight-timer will be on.
Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Weveallbeencaught could spoil that particular party very early in proceedings, while it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see Joseph O’Brien’s Banbridge bounce back in the Goffs Irish Arkle given he’ll likely have a strong gallop to aim at on better ground than he faced at Fairyhouse.
However, I’m in no mad rush to take on the might of Mullins and it’s to the DRF handicaps I’ll be going in a bid to win a few euros with the Race And Stay At Leopardstown Handicap Hurdle (3.40) appealing for an each-way bet.
Of those at the top of the market Charles Byrnes’ Grozni has to be on the shortlist given he’s been honing his skills at Plumpton and Leicester, his wily trainer now stepping him back up in trip for this race where he looks sure to play a leading role.
It's of no surprise he hasn’t been missed, but one that has seemingly crept under the radar is Francis Casey’s MAX FLAMINGO who is worth an each-way bet at 20/1.
This horse has two Ps in his recent form but don’t let that put you off, as he was pulled up at Ballinrobe last May at the end of a long season and he was pulled up in the Munster National after a few bad mistakes had seen him drop out of contention.
He has the look of a horse that has lost his confidence over fences, but his chasing form was good last season where he mixed handicaps with graded company, winning twice and running well at this track, too.
Seventh in the Irish Grand National, he’s a horse who stays well and he’s dead interesting reverting to hurdles off a 16lb lower mark than his chase rating.
That gives him a big chance in this, as it looks sure to be hard work, and he’ll be staying on well at the business end at a deceptively stiff track where he won his maiden hurdle impressively.
He won that off a similar break and he was punted into 11/2 for a high-class handicap chase at this meeting last year, so returning to Leopardstown for a big handicap hurdle looks to have been the plan from some way out.
The Verdict: Back MAX FLAMINGO e.w in the 3.40 Leopardstown
Chepstow form to come to the fore at Sandown
It’s one of the lower-key Saturdays in England but there are some cracking handicaps to get stuck into and the Chepstow race that the upwardly-mobile Fugitif hacked up in on December 27 could be well advertised at Sandown.
Fugitif ran well in second again last week at Cheltenham and Chepstow fourth Phoenix Way stayed on for a good fourth on the same card, so it looks form to keep a close eye on.
RED ROOKIE was fifth at Chepstow over a trip too far on his seasonal reappearance, but he shaped well with a return to two miles in mind and the handicapper has dropped him a few pounds to a tantalising 138.
This horse looked better than that when he easily beat subsequent winners Galice Macalo and Calico at Hereford as a novice and since then he’s only run in an Arkle and that Chepstow race.
He won his novice hurdle at Sandown and he can be towed into this nicely by front-running pair Éclair D’Ainay and Kiltealy Briggs.
Later on the card, Chepstow sixth BROKEN HALO runs in the Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase over three miles and he’s worth backing as well.
Paul Nicholls’ horse jumps well from prominent positions when he’s on it so Sandown’s chase track could really suit and they simply went too quick for him at Chepstow. The handicapper has given him a right chance dropping him 5lb in two runs to 132, as he’s still a progressive horse, and there could be more to come from him now he tackles three miles again.
This is just his seventh start over fences, but there have been enough clues in his chasing form – the hammering of two-time subsequent winner Black Gerry, the demolition job at Exeter – to suggest he can deliver off his current rating, especially on this better ground which will suit.
The Verdict: Back RED ROOKIE and BROKEN HALO at Sandown
Nicholls to continue Musselburgh domination
With plenty of eyes on the DRF it will be no surprise if Nicholls dominates the UK scene once again and his Musselburgh runners always have to be scrutinised.
It’s a long old trek from Ditcheat to Musselburgh but the fuel money is rarely wasted as Nicholls has a record of 25 wins from 69 runners at 36% at the Scottish track - and 22 of those winners came in the month of February.
He’s got four good chances at Musselburgh on Saturday and I want to be on his TRUCKERS LODGE in the bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase after his 28-length fourth in the Welsh National last time.
That was a better effort than the distance he was beaten suggests, as Freddie Gingell settled for fourth from a fair way out when it was obvious he wouldn’t trouble the front three and that nous can ensure another big run here.
Certainly, the handicapper has taken a chance dropping him 4lb to 137, his lowest mark since he won the Midlands National by 18 lengths - just one of many pieces of evidence that show he loves a real test of stamina.
The Verdict: Back TRUCKERS LODGE in the Edinburgh National
Get Stuck In - Ep 11: Focus on the Dublin Racing Festival, Trials Day reflections and much more!
Go north for a Socialist Agenda
Nicholls isn’t the only trainer with a 36% strike-rate at Musselburgh, as Laura Morgan has the same win percentage after winning with 10 of her 28 runners at the track.
One of those was SOCIALIST AGENDA in last year’s bet365 Scottish County Handicap Hurdle and he looks a bet to go in again in the same race with various factors in his favour.
Last year he cruised through the race and bolted up, so he’s immediately of interest off just 2lb higher – the handicapper having dropped him 10lb in four runs as jumping problems crept into his displays.
He has, however, jumped okay in his two starts this season under conditional jockey Lewis Dobb, both times at Musselburgh, and he was nearly wiped out at the start last time in an incident that seemed to light him up.
You can ignore that run and his second here the time before was encouraging, while the better ground, jockey change to Craig Nichol and the removal of the cheekpieces look other things in his favour.
The Verdict: Back SOCIALIST AGENDA in the Scottish County Hurdle
Published at 1440 GMT on 03/02/23
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