Our tipster looks ahead to the action
Ben Linfoot free horse racing tips for day three Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting September 28
By Ben Linfoot
15:43 · SAT September 28, 2024
Our form expert has three selections for Saturday's bet365 Cambridgeshire card at Newmarket and he's taking two against the field in the feature handicap.
The Verdict: Saturday, September 28
1pt win Royal Playwright in 1.50 Newmarket at 8/1 (bet365)
1pt e.w. James McHenry in 3.40 Newmarket at 40/1 (Boylesports, Coral 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
1pt e.w. Majestic in 3.40 Newmarket at 25/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
"He is DEFINITELY well-handicapped" | Cambridgeshire Handicap tips | Newmarket preview
Royal flush in the Royal Lodge
The testing ground after 32mm of rain at Newmarket on Thursday and into Friday morning makes Saturday’s card a different challenge for horses and punters alike.
Whistlejacket should not be inconvenienced in the Group 1 Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes, as he’s an experienced juvenile with a soft ground win to his name and his front-running style will be well suited to the Rowley Mile.
He was beaten by Babouche in the Group 1 Keeneland Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh and Ger Lyons’ filly is hanging onto favouritism, at the time of writing, in the Group 1 Juddmonte Cheveley Park earlier on the card.
She isn’t as likely to enjoy conditions, though, as she thrived on Good to Firm ground at the Curragh and Saturday’s test could be a bit of a culture shock for her.
I like Daylight against her, an Earthlight filly with a win on ‘Very Soft’ to her name, as she was unlucky behind Whistlejacket in the Prix Morny, drawn widest and racing keenly before finding trouble in the run, but so does everyone else, it seems, as her price has crashed.
The Daylight-Whistlejacket double is one of those related contingencies we can get away with and I wouldn’t put anyone off such a bet, though I’ll stop short of putting up an 8/11 chance in a multi as it’s so far out of character I’ve almost got a sweat on.
I’ll leave the Group 1s alone, but the Group 2 Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes over a mile appeals for a bet as the market leaders have earnt their ratings on much quicker conditions.
Perhaps Luther or Wimbledon Hawkeye will relish the ground, but I’d rather back one at a bigger price that is even more likely to enjoy a testing surface and Andrew Balding’s ROYAL PLAYWRIGHT appeals on that score.
Progeny of Lope De Vega are well proven on soft and heavy and this horse is out of the Dubawi mare Arabian Queen, who won a Group 2 on soft ground herself as juvenile.
He should relish conditions and stepping up to a mile could also unlock significant improvement in a horse bred for middle-distances at three.
The talent is there, as he won like a very good horse on debut at Salisbury when pummelling his field, despite signs of greenness including a path jump, while he ran well stepped up in class in the Group 3 Sky Bet Solario Stakes at Sandown last time.
He was bumped at the start from his inside draw and that lit him up a little, doing too much too soon on the front end, but he wasn’t beaten far by two nice prospects and he can come on from that experience.
Balding has won the Royal Lodge a couple of times and owner Jeff Smith won it last year with Ghostwriter, but the two can combine here with Royal Playwright who can write his own script under Oisin Murphy.
The Verdict: Back ROYAL PLAYWRIGHT in the 1.50 Newmarket
Take two in the Cambridgeshire
High numbers drawn more towards the stands’ side have dominated the bet365 Cambridgeshire over the last decade but all of those renewals were on much better ground and I wouldn’t be put off by a horse breaking from a low draw if you fancy one.
The last two renewals on soft ground were won by horses drawn over on the far side (Blue Monday and Credit Swap) so I’m not concerned by JAMES McHENRY’s draw in stall two and he can go well at a big price.
Ed Bethell’s horse has rarely raced on soft ground but he won on those conditions on the undulations of Ripon and he’s been in terrific form all summer without winning.
Still, his second places at Hamilton and Thirsk were so solid he was lucky not to be shunted up a few extra pounds by the handicapper and he ran another cracker when fourth in the Clipper Handicap at York's Ebor Festival.
That form is hot with the third, Holloway Boy, winning a Group 3 subsequently, the fifth, Bennetot, has run two good races post-York at Ascot and Ayr, while the sixth, Aragon Castle, has since won in Scotland.
James McHenry ran a fine race to finish amongst that lot and given he has tried 10 furlongs on three occasions there’s every chance the nine furlongs in a strongly-run Cambridgeshire is exactly what he wants.
We know that's the case with a previous winner, MAJESTIC, and from the stands' side crew (stall 36) I want him on board, as well.
Jack Channon has already showcased his talents as a target trainer with the way he has got further big-race success out of Johan and Majestic is a similar type who thrives in the cut and thrust of a big field.
He won the 2022 Cambridgeshire off a mark of 86 and last year he was fourth off 89, so he’s clearly got a chance again off his 2023 mark after running in a handful of races that didn’t really play to his strengths this year.
Certainly, that was the scenario at Yarmouth last time when he missed the break in a race where it paid to be prominent, but it should have put him spot on for this and I like that it was only 10 days ago.
He came into last year’s Cambridgeshire a tad fresh after almost two months off, but the year he won it he had raced just a week previously so it’s no surprise to see Channon get that run into him close to his big-race target.
As for the ground, he was a close-up fourth in a Lincoln on heavy ground at Doncaster from a perch in the 90s, so I think he’s pretty versatile regarding conditions and I wouldn't be surprised to see him run really well once again.
The Verdict: Back JAMES McHENRY and MAJESTIC in the 3.40 Newmarket
Preview posted at 1550 BST on 27/09/24
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