Ascot tips: Preview and best value bets for British Champions Day on Saturday October 19
By Matt Brocklebank
16:01 · THU October 17, 2024
Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to Saturday's top-quality card at Ascot and has three fresh each-way bets to go alongside his antepost recommendations.
- Matt Brocklebank's Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Value Bet tips are initially available to logged-in readers through Sporting Life Plus, before the full column appears on the main Sporting Life website and App 15 minutes later.
- Following all Matt's selections to recommended odds/stakes since the start of 2024 would have produced 135.70pts in profit (264pts staked, ROI of 51.40%).
Value Bet tips: Saturday October 19
1pt e.w. Burdett Road in 1.20 Ascot at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Doha in 2.35 Ascot at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4)
1pt e.w. Sir Busker in 4.35 Ascot at 18/1 (Sky Bet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Already advised:
2pts win Unequal Love in British Champions Sprint Stakes at 14/1
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Take on Kyprios in opening contest
An absorbing British Champions Day in store once again and the three Round Course races being switched to the inner circuit definitely adds an extra layer of intrigue for punters.
The QIPCO British Long Distance Cup and the QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes are almost half a furlong (82 yards and 78 yards respectively) shorter than advertised as a consequence of the move, while further rain on Friday night is bound to keep the underfoot conditions pretty testing, even for this meeting's standards.
Short-priced favourites have been beaten in the opening marathon both years it's had to be run on the inner/jumps course and at the prices I'm quite keen to oppose odds-on shot Kyprios, who is the best horse in the race by some margin but has had a long old season which started back in April.
After making all in the Cadran earlier this month, Aidan O’Brien's star has now landed the same six races he won two years ago, but I wonder if going to the well one more time – for a race in which he was narrowly denied by Trawlerman 12 months ago – could just catch him out.
Given the conditions and the way this race may be run, BURDETT ROAD appeals from an each-way perspective.
He’s got a stone to find with Kyprios on Timeform figures but looks to be maturing all the time and settled much better than has occasionally been the case when allowed to dictate matters on the Rowley Mile last time out.
Granted, it was a small-field Listed race in which he beat a horse officially rated just 105, but to his credit James Owen’s horse was conceding the runner-up 7lb and he pulled eight and a half lengths clear having made just about every yard under Harry Davies.
Eased down at the finish, he avoided a hard race there and it was clearly a new career-best on the Flat from this dual jumps winner. One of his most impressive performances during last year’s juvenile hurdle campaign came on bad ground at Cheltenham in November, and I reckon he’ll relish the Ascot mud-bath this weekend.
Whether he truly stays the trip (one mile, seven and a half furlongs now don’t forget) is open to question, but we can’t hold the mile and three-quarter Ebor disappointment against him as the going was far too lively at York that day.
Hopefully, Burdett Road gets to the front again here and, if that’s the case, it’s not hard to see him hanging in there for a piece of the pie as it really should pay to be handy considering this track configuration.
That man Beckett to deliver the goods
DOHA is another usually prominent racer who looks a touch over-priced trying a new trip in the Fillies & Mares.
Trained by the all-conquering Ralph Beckett, she's never going to truly live up to her impeccable pedigree (Sea The Stars x Treve), but is already a Royal Ascot winner having dropped back to a mile for the Kensington Palace in June, and there was a really classy visual appearance to her Listed victory in France earlier this month.
She won with loads to spare there and is seemingly blossoming deep into the year, as she did as a two-year-old when breaking her maiden on soft ground at Windsor last October. I’m not surprised at all to see connections having another go in Group 1 company, put it that way.
Prior to the stylish Saint-Cloud success, Doha ran a creditable race on quick going in the Nassau Stakes (was supplemented for Goodwood where her owners sponsor) and then chased home big QEII hope Tamfana back over a mile in the Group 3 Atalanta Stakes at Sandown.
Tamfana has obviously franked that form already with her Sun Chariot victory and, given her middle-distance breeding, there must be a chance that Doha could step forward considerably again now granted a genuine test of stamina.
History strongly suggests a wide draw is no bad thing on the Round Course here (the two inner track winners of this race came from stalls 11 and 10) so I certainly don’t mind 11 for Hector Crouch’s mount and, with all due respect to the hotly-fancied three-year-old Kalpana, she’s narrowly preferred to 14/1 chance Queen Of The Pride who breaks from stall 13.
Busker to go out on right note
See The Fire at 66/1 is the closest I got to a bet in the QIPCO British Champion Stakes but I've still got a high opinion of Los Angeles too, and it just looks a really warm renewal with the market leaders Economics and Calandagan hardly horses to be opposing on account of the wet weather.
Instead, I'll jump straight to the Balmoral Handicap which held up incredibly well at the final declaration stage. Top of my shortlist at the start of the week was Akkadian Thunder but he’s not currently getting a run as third reserve and Qirat – one of the antepost favourites – also needs a late defector to make the final field.
Bill Farrell's State Actor looks a massive player here down the bottom of the weights as he’s held his form very well in top-end Irish handicaps since winning a Curragh maiden on heavy ground back in April. He’s got a potentially advantageous draw too in stall two, but the layers are all over him already and I wonder if the old warrior SIR BUSKER - drawn next door in one - is being underestimated in the betting.
Admittedly, he’s eight years old now and clearly isn’t the horse he once was, having won a Hunt Cup before going on to be placed in Palace Pier's Queen Anne (2021) and Baaeed’s Juddmonte International (2022) among many other excellent efforts in exalted company.
But he's only run in one turf handicap since finishing 15th off a BHA mark of 111 in the 2021 Balmoral, and he won it. That came at York’s Ebor meeting earlier this season, when defying a rating of 105 under Brandon Wilkie, who was claiming 5lb at the time.
Wilkie is back in the saddle this weekend and that claim is now down to 3lb, with Sir Busker having to run off 110, but he’s got his conditions (goes on anything but definitely handles plenty of dig) and evidently adores the straight course at this venue.
They nearly always go a good gallop and end up towards the far rail in this event so his track position could be highly beneficial, and if this horse has one last hurrah in him then it could well be on Saturday. I’m happy to play each-way again in the lucky last, especially with Sky Bet going seven places.
Published at 1600 BST on 17/10/24
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