Tempus could be able to shake up the principals in the QEII
Ascot Tips: Best value bets for British Champions Day on Saturday
By Matt Brocklebank
Horse Racing
Sat October 15, 2022 · 2y ago
Our man looks ahead to a superb Champions Day card at Ascot and attempts to unearth the pick of the value including in the Balmoral Handicap.
Value Bet tips: Saturday October 15
1pt e.w. King’s Lynn in 2.00 Ascot at 22/1 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt e.w. Tempus in 3.20 Ascot at 20/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Tacarib Bay in 4.40 Ascot at 16/1 (General (1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)
Already advised:
Leger winner to deny hat-trick hunter Trueshan
Only the one handicap on QIPCO British Champions Day but some good betting heats throughout and tackling the card in chronological order makes sense on several levels.
Roger Varian left layers and punters on edge at the start of the week when weighing up whether to run St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov in the Long Distance Cup, rather than wait for a race in France, and he’s rightly found himself towards the head of the betting after a midweek move that all but confirmed connections had firmed up running plans.
Trueshan has won this race for the past two seasons in good fashion and, in pure form terms, took things to another level again when defying top weight and a BHA mark of 120 in the Northumberland Plate this summer.
Whether that huge effort took a bit of a toll has to be considered following subsequent defeats at Goodwood and Doncaster, and while he’s not been disgraced on either occasion, there was something a little off-putting about the way he went about his business when failing to reel in Coltrane in the Doncaster Cup.
The jury’s out with Trueshan as a consequence and Waterville is clearly priced up on potential around the 4/1 mark, for all that he showed a great attitude to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in the Irish Cesarewitch.
The each-way alternative to Eldar Eldarov may be Trawlerman at 20s.
John and Thady Gosden have seemingly always had a lot of faith in this horse but took the bold move to have him gelded heading into this season and it’s clearly paid off as he’s won three of his five starts including the Sky Bet Ebor at York when last sighted.
The fitting of a hood – tried for the first time when winning another valuable handicap at Goodwood at the end of July – has evidently helped an enormous amount too, and he looks to be crying out for an even more severe test of stamina.
Now he’s finally learnt to settle, the son of Golden Horn is really beginning to fulfil his potential and you can’t fault his attitude either as he fought off the in-form Alfred Boucher valiantly to land the spoils at York.
This is a tougher task altogether but he’s still got potential to improve again and I can’t see easier ground being an issue given his pedigree (out of a Monsun mare whose second foal Sailing Home coped well enough with heavy ground despite never actually winning).
On balance, there are better bets elsewhere.
Colours of the King can be carried to victory
The QIPCO British Champions Sprint is a competitive race and I’ve already backed the lightly-raced three-year-old Castle Star at 33/1 antepost.
There’s no desire to be backing him again and at current odds I’ll take a small interest in KING’S LYNN who has always done well in the autumn and looks to be sitting on a big run with conditions far more to his liking this time of year.
The weather wasn’t kind to him in the summer after winning the Temple Stakes at Haydock, but connections understandably pressed ahead and ran him twice during Royal Ascot week in the hope of landing a big one in the colours of The Queen with the world watching on.
He ran perfectly well in the circumstances, finishing seventh behind Aussie freak Nature Strip in the King’s Stand before ending up second on his side of the track behind overall runner-up Naval Crown in the Platinum Jubilee.
A well-earned rest followed and there were plenty of positives to take from his five-furlong comeback run here a fortnight ago, where he was staying on at the finish to be beaten just a length and a quarter, despite conceding a weight penalty all round.
It wasn’t too far off his Temple effort at all, strictly on the book, and one would assume trainer Andrew Balding left a bit to work on as this horse has often come on for a run in the past, including when successful second-time-out as a two-year-old and again at Haydock earlier this year. Last spring, he went mighty close to winning second-time-out at Chester too, so it’s a tried and tested method and one which will hopefully see him build on his Rous Stakes spin at the start of the month.
If he improves somewhere in the region of 7lb as expected, he holds sound each-way claims in this company with what looks a potentially favourable draw in stall two – the stalls are on the far side with Art Power (8) and Go Bears Go (9) likely to help force the pace.
Doyle to dictate matters on course specialist
Rank outsider Thunder Kiss is the closest I came to a bet in the QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, although the race has held up well from the start of the week and there’s genuine strength in depth too.
The rock-solid Sea La Rosa appeals most of those at the top of the market but I’m not completely bowled over by her price (quite well punted on Friday), especially with the Gosdens holding such a strong hand courtesy of Doncaster winner Mimikyu and the returning Emily Upjohn – now hooded – who I fancied for the King George when last seen in action.
I’ll take a pass there and while the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes hasn't cut up much either, I still think TEMPUS is worth backing to beat Inspiral, the favourite having been drawn nine of nine which may not be ideal as she'll have to challenge more towards the middle of the course.
Tempus has got to give the three-year-old filly 6lb which obviously won’t be easy if she’s bang on song but he’s having a remarkable year himself after registering four victories – all over a mile, one of which was at this track, where he won in 2020 for previous trainer Roger Charlton too.
He’s taken the step up to Group level in his stride towards the end of this summer, showing a willing attitude at Salisbury and Deauville before, on the face of it, coming unstuck when 5/4 favourite in the Joel Stakes at Newmarket last time.
I’m not totally convinced he’s in love with that track, but he was always going to struggle after fluffing the start and having to play catch-up from the off. He’s normally right on the sharp end in his races so to see him running on into third showed he’s still right at the top of his game and thriving despite the busy campaign.
If Hollie Doyle can break more sharply this time and set a muddling gallop close to the far rail (should have every chance of doing so from stall three), Tempus could be awkward to peg back and it simply looks a case of him being underestimated in the market after the winning run came to an end last time.
Hannon's Bay to sweep home in Balmoral
The QIPCO Champion Stakes is principally about Baaeed who confirmed himself an exceptional horse when powering home in the Juddmonte International, but it’s not hard to envisage this clash with a super-fresh Adayar being the hardest race of his life.
Charlie Appleby’s colt can't match the favourite but he clocked some very impressive numbers in the Derby and King George last year, and the comeback win in a small race at Doncaster was about as good as you could have hoped to see in the circumstances. His controlled power and zest for the challenge were undoubtedly in evidence on Town Moor, while the reports of his subsequent work are encouraging.
It’s just about a no-bet race, personally, even with the appealing each-way shape for anyone wishing to oppose the favourite, but if Adayar drifts to anything north of 5/1 then he could become too big to overlook.
I won’t be passing up the chance to find a potentially even more rewarding winner in the Balmoral Handicap and the switch to blinkers makes TACARIB BAY an interesting proposition.
He ran well in first-time cheekpieces when second in the course and distance handicap won by Tempus towards the end of July, and is now competing from a 2lb lower mark despite finishing a creditable second to Triple Time in a Haydock Group Three in the interim.
The last run was a bit of a flop, when dropped back to seven furlongs at Newbury, but the son of Night Of Thunder has always looked happier on ground with some give in it – both career wins coming on soft ground at Haydock.
He’s never won over quite this far but he was finishing strongly after meeting some trouble when chasing home Tempus and he looks the type to thrive in a big-field handicap scenario, with a really low draw (two) in the midst of pace-enforcing Perotto, Johan and Montatham no bad thing - on paper at least.
Published at 1230 BST on 14/10/22
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