Ascot Racing Tips Today | Timeform experts predictions
By Timeform
Horse Racing
Tue June 18, 2024 · 5M ago
Find out who the Timeform experts fancy on day one of Royal Ascot and which horses stand out on ratings and Flags.
Timeform experts' best bets
Rory King: Facteur Cheval – 2.30 Royal Ascot
FACTEUR CHEVAL has six lengths to find on Big Rock from last year’s QEII but there are definite reasons for thinking he can overturn that form. For starters, the ground will be very different. Big Rock does have form on similar ground – he got closest to Ace Impact in the French Derby last summer – but he’s particularly effective when the mud is flying. Admittedly Facteur Cheval is yet to try ground officially firmer than good but he’s a fluent mover and leaves the impression that it could well suit, from the first crop of Ribchester (who won this race on firm ground in 2017) out of a Shamardal mare after all. What’s more, while he was placed in four Group 1s without winning last year, he’s already come out and rectified that by landing the Dubai Turf at the end of March, showing improved form and impressing not only with the way he travelled but also the way he dug deep to fend off the persistent challenge of the Japanese-trained Namur, who herself added solidity to that form when finishing a close second to Hong Kong powerhouse Romantic Warrior in the Yasuda Kinen recently. It seems unlikely there’ll be any hanging around in this, and a well-run stiff mile looks right up his street.
Kieran Clark: Catalyse – 3.05 Ascot
A huge week for Qatari-based Wathan Racing kickstarts with a three-pronged attack on the Coventry Stakes – this renewal looking a deep one – and CATALYSE appears to hold strong each-way claims. He made a striking winning debut at Hamilton, displaying a fine turn of foot to score by two lengths in a field that contained plenty of nicely-bred sorts from other major northern yards. Never stronger than at the finish that day, a well-run six furlongs should be right up his street (has the pedigree to stay further) and, in what’s also a big week for the yard with its two-year-olds, he appears to have been overpriced with most firms paying five places (first six with Skybet).
Graeme North: Cowardofthecounty – 3.05 Royal Ascot
The Coventry Stakes nearly always goes to one that has already looked smart on the clock and the horse who fits the bill this year is COWARDOFTHECOUNTY. I’ve written several times before this year about how the Irish juveniles seem a level above the British and even raised the possibility a week ago of a clean sweep. Just four of the 23 declared for the Coventry are trained in Ireland and none has better claims than Cowardofthecounty who ran down the Norfolk favourite Whistlejacket from off the pace on his only start so far while pulling six and a lengths clear of the remainder.
David Johnson: Israr – 5.40 Royal Ascot
Although this typically ends up as the strongest listed race run all year, this still looks a drop in class for ISRAR and he’s fancied to resume winning ways for team Shadwell. He’s an unpenalised Group 2 winner and though he’s been beaten all six starts since last year’s Princess of Wales’s Stakes, there’s little doubt in my mind that he’s still as good as ever. Part of the issue has been him getting to the front too soon in smallish fields so I like the big-field set up he has here. On his most recent start he gave Passenger a good race at level weights, the pair pulling clear of the rest, and that horse was towards the head of the market for the Prince of Wales’s Stakes before he was ruled out. Providing Israr is ridden with plenty of confidence, his late turn of foot can prove decisive against this opposition.
Flags and Ratings
The Ratings Choice
Belloccio - 6.15 Royal Ascot
Willie Mullins sent out the one-two in the Copper Horse Handicap last season and his only representative this year, BELLOCCIO, holds strong claims on Timeform's figures.
Belloccio has to prove himself on quick ground but he's a well-handicapped horse based on the smart form he showed for former trainer David Menuisier, with the pick of his efforts including a listed win at Kempton towards the back-end of 2022.
He wasn't quite at that level last season, for all he ran respectably on his last two Flat outings at Kempton, but he looked on good terms with himself when bolting up in a maiden hurdle at Punchestown last month and could prove a class apart from his rivals on these terms.
The Timeform Flag
Notable Speech - 4.25 Royal Ascot
Flags: Horse In Focus, Hot Trainer, Top-Rated
NOTABLE SPEECH had created an excellent impression in three starts on the all-weather and he coped with the marked step up in class in the 2000 Guineas to extend his unbeaten record.
As well as making his turf debut, Notable Speech was also in a well-run race for the first time at Newmarket but he still took the eye with how powerfully he travelled and he was able to deploy his impressive turn of foot to beat the reopposing Rosallion by a length and a half.
That high-class piece of form is the best on offer here - he's 4 lb clear on Timeform's figures - and he remains open to further improvement after only four starts. He's a top-class colt in the making.
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