Ascot Champions Day tips: Best value bets for Saturday October 21
By Matt Brocklebank
Horse Racing
Sat October 21, 2023 · 1y ago
It's a big day at Ascot on Saturday and our man picks out the value on the highly competitive QIPCO Champions Day card.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over in June 2020 would have produced 125pts profit, while he's more than 34pts up for the year.
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Value Bet tips: Saturday, October 21
1pt win Trawlerman in 1.15 Ascot at 12/1 (Betfair, bet365)
1pt win Rohaan in 1.50 Ascot at 10/1 (William Hill)
1pt win Bennetot in 4.25 Ascot at 40/1 (William Hill)
1pt win Dancing Magic in 4.25 Ascot at 16/1 (bet365)
Frankie and Godolphin one last time?
British Champions Day isn’t always a big punting day, personally, but the Ascot straight course can usually be relied upon to throw up the odd shock, while the decision to switch the three round course races to the inner (hurdles) track is clearly a significant one.
At the time of writing, rather than soft (heavy in places) we’re now looking at good to soft (soft in places) ground for the QIPCO Champion Stakes, Champion Fillies & Mares Stakes and the Champions Long Distance Cup, and the last-named pair are also consequently run over distances around 80 yards shorter than initially advertised.
If that doesn’t impact your thinking when it comes to parting with your cash then I don’t know what will and a considerably sounder surface obviously plays to the strengths of some of the classier horses including Mostahdaf in the Champion and Free Wind in the Fillies & Mares.
Not quite as much of a bruising test looks likely to suit the Gosden-trained pair in the Long Distance Cup too - no wonder the Clarehaven camp seemed keen on the idea of switching courses earlier in the week. TRAWLERMAN suddenly comes right into things now having looked as good as ever in two recent starts at Salisbury and Newmarket, while he was boxing on for third behind Trueshan and Coltrane in this race last year having tanked his way to the front turning for home.
Trueshan would no doubt have preferred a slog in bad ground on the traditional outer Flat course and Coltrane was really disappointing behind Alan King’s horse and Sweet William in the Doncaster Cup last time. That leaves Kyprios as the horse to beat and he’s miles clear on most ratings you’ll read, but his odds-on defeat in the Irish St. Leger was well below his peak form from 2022.
If he bounces straight back he’ll win this – and no doubt win it well – but that looks a big enough caveat at the prices and I’m willing to row in with Trawlerman at double-figure odds. It’s not hard to envisage Frankie looking to dictate matters from stall one on the in-form son of Golden Horn, and if he kicks on a bit earlier this year he might be away and gone around this much sharper configuration.
Moore to get more Ascot magic from Rohaan
ROHAAN unquestionably saves his best for this venue, with a six-furlong record of five wins from eight starts here, and despite some support since the final declarations, he remains backable at 8/1-plus in the QIPCO British Champions Sprint.
Rohaan has been a remarkable success story for David Evans in recent years, beginning his Ascot journey by winning the 2021 Pavilion Stakes and returning to land the Wokingham later that summer.
He took top spot in the Royal meeting’s major sprint handicap from a lofty mark of 109 again last year and wound up being sent off 4/1 for this race 12 months ago. The formbook tells you he was only fourth but that doesn’t do him justice as he came through from near the back to 'win' the race among the bunch of horses who raced towards the far side rail.
Meanwhile, Kinross got a dream run in the centre-field group led up by Godolphin pair Naval Crown and Creative Force, who really helped tee it up for those around them.
It's not exactly as if the boot will be on the other foot this time around as Kinross isn’t badly placed again in stall eight, but Rohaan should at least get a fair crack of things from six, with the proper speed horses (Swingalong and Art Power) housed in one and three by the far rail on Saturday.
Neil Callan delivered a back-to-form Rohaan perfectly to win on good ground here earlier in the month but Ryan Moore gets on famously with him and he’s back on board for the first time since the 2022 Wokingham, while any more rain is more than welcome for the son of Mayson.
I’ve got Spycatcher on side antepost from a few weeks back but wasn’t too impressed with his last run at Doncaster and Rohaan really stands out.
Some favourites are hard to take on
The Fillies & Mares looks to hinge on Free Wind versus the amount of improvement Jackie Oh could find now tackling a mile and a half, and I’m not willing to take the pair of them on.
I’ve liked the idea of Via Sistina in the Champion Stakes for a while but couldn’t quite recommend an antepost bet given her alternative engagement against her own sex and, typically, her price shortened after Oisin Murphy was confirmed for the ride in the big one. She’s back on the drift again now following Friday’s track switch news and I’m struggling to see how anything beats Mostahdaf in truth.
He looks the one proper global star in this field and Jim Crowley – back in the saddle after Dettori’s York masterclass last time – will be out to atone for the defeat of Baaeed in this race last year. Faster ground suits, but he’s a dual soft-ground winner in the past too don’t forget.
The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes could get messy as Dermot Weld doesn’t seem all that enamored with the prospect of Tahiyra running on really soft ground, but she does evidently handle some cut so maybe connections will allow her to go for it as other than the Breeders’ Cup – in just two weeks’ time - I guess there’s a chance she may not race on beyond the weekend.
Paddington, by Tahiyra’s sire Siyouni – acts on anything but copes with deep terrain better than most, underlined by his victory in the Sussex Stakes. Facteur Cheval was runner-up at Goodwood that day and the French horse was the closest I came to an each-way bet around the 14/1 mark on Saturday.
He was just behind fellow French-based runner Big Rock when they finished second and third in the Prix du Moulin last month and they’ll both probably be even more effective on this weekend’s softer conditions. The weight-for-age scale dictates Facteur Cheval is 1lb better off here.
Nashwa doesn’t want it quite so testing based on her Nassau Stakes effort and, despite having no ground concerns for 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean, I’d be more against than for him too as even his very best form might not be quite up to winning this and he was off-colour last time out.
Swing big in wide-open Balmoral
The Balmoral Handicap is predictably a much better punting race anyway and the horse I was sweetest on at the start of the week, Al Mubhir, has tightened in the betting and no longer represents much value against my own market expectations.
His stablemate Lattam has looked a little disinterested to me since getting no run from his low draw in the Golden Mile at Goodwood, but could be sparked into life by the fitting of cheekpieces, while David O’Meara is always another trainer to fear in this event and Bopedro ran a perfectly good trial when beaten a length into third in the Cambridgeshire.
He’s 2lb well-in here as a result and has one of the best Ascot straight course jockeys for company in Danny Tudhope. However, at a wild price I’m going to roll the dice with BENNETOT, who I’m convinced we’ll only get limited opportunities to back at 40/1 for one of these big-field handicaps.
With the likes of Bopedro and one or two other stable stalwarts in the horses-in-training autumn sales, Bennetot looks to have been drafted in (110,000 euros from Arqana Deauville Summer sale) to help O’Meara fill the void, and there’s no denying he has become synonymous with this type of race in recent seasons.
Bennetot’s UK debut run last month was underwhelming to say the least but I’ll gladly excuse any horse an eased-down effort on heavy going at Haydock and he was never going to emerge from near the back of the pack that day.
Conditions could be almost as gruelling at Ascot but there’s always hope for the closers given the late climb to the line here and Bennetot has some eyecatching form over further from his time in France, including a soft-ground win at nine furlongs.
His best form came over a mile at Saint-Cloud (very soft) this spring when beaten just a length into fourth behind 2020 QEII hero The Revenant, and on that evidence he’s got a cracking chance running off a BHA mark of 97. Neil Callan (one win, one second, one third from seven rides for the yard this year) is in to do the steering and I certainly don’t want to miss out should O’Meara pull off a surprise result in this again having won with 80/1 shot Shelir last October.
The other horse I won’t let go unbacked in this is the maiden DANCING MAGIC, who makes his handicap debut off a mark of 98 having undergone wind surgery since last sighted in a Salisbury Group 3 in mid-August.
That’s an 8lb lower rating from which he began the current campaign, finishing third behind Indestructible in the Craven at Newmarket. It was a pretty weak Craven in truth, despite runner-up The Foxes winning the Dante on his next start, but Dancing Magic effectively proved that he’d trained on that day, and I didn’t mind his Hampton Court effort at the Royal meeting either after a change in tactics saw him never closer than the four and a quarter lengths he was beaten into eighth.
That race worked out well, throwing up six subsequent winners, and while Dancing Magic has been comfortably held in his two starts since, they have come at Listed and Group 3 level. He finally has his sights lowered here by in-form trainer Roger Teal and the booking of Murphy is a statement of intent.
Teal knows this horse’s family well having trained the full-brother Dancing Harry, who was a heavy-ground scorer who incidentally won in a first-time tongue-tie, so after the recent wind operation it’s hoped the trainer has got to the bottom of this horse’s breathing issues as well.
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Published at 1600 BST on 20/10/23
Already advised:
2pts win Arrest in British Champions Long Distance Cup at 10/1 (NR)
1pt win Spycatcher in British Champions Sprint Stakes at 12/1
0.5pts win Mitbaahy in British Champions Sprint Stakes at 25/1 (NR)
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