Arc de Triomphe tips, hints and analysis including how important is the draw at Longchamp?

1. How is Torquator Tasso’s repeat bid looking?

Better than this time last year when he was an unconsidered and largely unknown 72/1 outsider. The son of Adlerflug had just won a Group One at Baden-Baden, but a near three-length defeat to Alpinista at Hoppergarten seemed to put his claims against the cream of Britain and Ireland into perspective, only for him to wear down the form horses; Tarnawa, Hurricane Lane and Adayar, with a strong staying performance in the heavy ground at ParisLongchamp.

Sealiway, home in fifth, boosted the form with his Qipco Champion Stakes win at Ascot two weeks later, but Tarnawa flopped in her own repeat bid for Breeders’ Cup success before retirement.

Torquator Tasso stayed in training, but things didn’t look good for the German-trained horse when he was beaten 18 lengths on his seasonal return at Baden-Baden. A serene Group Two victory at Hamburg got him back on track and he looked the one to take out of the King George when he was a staying-on second to Pyledriver on faster than ideal ground at Ascot in July. Then there was his attempt to go back-to-back in the Grosser Preis von Baden, where he suffered an odds-on defeat as Frankie Dettori earned a two-week whip ban.

His conqueror, Mendocino, brings us back to Alpinista, who beat that rival at Munich last November, but the small-field scenario was against Torquator Tasso and much better is expected of the five-year-old on Sunday.

After rain on Monday the ground is already ‘Soft’ in places and with more rain forecast things are coming together nicely for last year’s hero, who will bid to become the eighth back-to-back winner in the race’s history.

2. What about the beaten horses from last year’s Arc?

A much shorter segment, admittedly, following the defection of Adayar.

Sealiway, Bubble Gift, Alenquer, Broome and Deep Bond are all still in there pitching, but the last four named were all eighth or worse last year and Sealiway is winless in five since his shock Ascot victory. Going back to Champions Day looks his main target and he’s the shortest in the betting of last year’s beaten quintet, at 66/1, which says everything.

In the last decade there have been 30 horses that were beaten in the Arc coming back for more, with three of them winning. Sotsass and Found were both beaten in the Arc as three-year-olds before winning a year later, while Waldgeist was beaten at four before he came back as a five-year-old to win, sinking Enable in her hat-trick bid.

It can be done, but if there is a horse from last year’s Arc that triumphs this Sunday, it’s likely to be last year’s winner.

3. What effect could the draw have in Sunday’s likely big field?

A lower draw, from two to seven, is probably what you’d pick if given the choice, but the nastiness of a wide berth in the teens is probably a little overplayed, even if a car-park slot has scuppered one or two over the years.

The last three Arcs have produced relatively small fields of 12, 11 and 14 runners, rendering the draw slightly less relevant, while it’s probably best to discard any starting-gate clues from the two renewals at Chantilly that we’ve had recently.

There have been five Arcs at Longchamp with 16 or more runners in the last decade and the winners have broken from low-ish numbers; Solemia from six, Treve from three and Enable from six, and high numbers, too, with Treve winning from 15 and Golden Horn, under a famous Dettori ride, from 14. Two exceptional winners, but they broke from high numbers nonetheless.

You can win from anywhere, then, if good enough, but the draw probably did for Sea Of Class in 2018 when she was beaten a short neck by Enable after being drawn in 15, while Taghrooda wasn’t helped by her draw in the same stall when third to Treve four years earlier.

Since 1980 stall two has been the most successful draw with six winners breaking from that starting gate, with stall six producing five winners. Stalls four and 14 are equal third with four winners apiece.

The least productive stalls in the last 42 years are one, nine, 16 and 17, with just one winner each, so very very low, or very very wide, is probably what connections are hoping to avoid this weekend.

4. What sort of history do Luxembourg, Vadeni and Al Hakeem have to overcome?

The stamina question is one you don’t really want to be asking in a race like the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and all of Luxembourg, Vadeni and Al Hakeem go into the race having to answer it.

None of them have run over 1m4f and the Arc course is a testing circuit. Any stamina limitations can be tested early on, too, with its quarter of a mile opening dash quickly followed by a 600-metre rise before the first bend, which is always sure to catch out the keen goers. You don’t want to be racing uneconomically on this part of the course and if a 10-furlong horse is pulling for his or her head at such an early point they’re probably not going to get home.

Luxembourg has relaxed well over shorter trips and he shapes like he’ll stay, but he has to go and do it, while Vadeni, a speedier sort with a sharp turn of foot, could do without the race turning into a slog. Al Hakeem is promising, but he has more to find and he’s been keen over 10 furlongs which is a worry.

Bago was the last horse to win the Arc having not won over 1m4f, back in 2004, but he had at least run over the trip once, just like Sakhee before him in 2001. You have to go back to Saumarez in 1990 to find the last horse to win the Arc having not even run over 1m4f, with 25 horses attempting the feat without success since then.

5. Could Frankel finally 'win' the Arc?

For some of Frankel’s career and plenty of its aftermath his achievements were responded to by some racing fans with ‘yeah, but he never won the Arc’. The highest-rated racehorse in Flat racing history won everything there was to win in England over a mile, sometimes twice, before he ended his career with wins at York and Ascot over 10 furlongs in the Juddmonte International and Champion Stakes.

Ten from ten in Group Ones, 14 from 14 all told. But he never won an Arc.

Would he have beaten Solemia and Orfevre in the 2012 Arc in heavy ground? All logic says yes, of course he would, but we’ll never know, and he would’ve had to ‘do a Saumarez’ - a horse coincidentally handled by Frankel’s trainer, Sir Henry Cecil, before he switched to Nicolas Clement - having not run over 1m4f in his career.

Saumarez never sired an Arc winner, but Frankel might and he could have up to four chances this year.

Heading the quartet is Alpinista, who should be favourite and she might be soon. The winner of her last seven races, she has taken a further step forward this year and has grown into the role of major Arc wannabe ever since Torquator Tasso advertised her claims so emphatically 12 months ago.

Then there’s Westover who looked like he might be the real deal in the Irish Derby only for him to flop in a major way in the King George. He has a touch of Workforce about him, a horse who won the Arc in the same Juddmonte colours after his own impressive Derby win and King George reverse, so he’ll have his supporters hoping lightning can strike twice.

Mostahdaf is a big outsider, even if he did impress in Enable’s Arc stepping-stone, the September Stakes, but Onesto is much shorter given he has only half a length to find with Luxembourg from the Irish Champion.

A classy quartet, no doubt, and one that could finally see Frankel win the Arc. Sort of.

6. Can anything step up from their trials day form?

It's looking unlikely now. Iresine, winner of the Prix Foy, is a gelding so he can’t run in the Arc, Sweet Lady, winner of the Prix Vermeille, isn’t in the Arc and neither is Simca Mille, winner of the Prix Niel.

With none of the trial winners set to line up, eyes are drawn to the placed horses and La Parisienne was a notable eyecatcher in the Vermeille, finding loads of trouble in the run before eventually finishing a quarter-length third. The money for her is understandable, but it's looking like she won't even make the cut with France Galop limiting the field size to 20.

As for Verry Elleegant, third in the Prix Foy, what a shame she won't run.

There is no doubt her European campaign has been disappointing considering her exploits in Australia, but it’s harsh to judge her on her two runs in falsely-run small-field French races. Unfortunately the French handicapper has done just that, denying the Melbourne Cup winner a place in the race.

She looked sure to be suited by the bigger field and likely strong gallop, but if she's not in it she can't win, ditto La Parisienne, making this year's trials a very unlikely launchpad for the Arc winner.

7. How does Titleholder and Do Deuce’s Japanese form stack up?

Do Deuce is a fairly big price at odds north of 25/1 but he does have some question marks hanging over him. The son of Hearts Cry won the Japanese Derby in May, but he was a disappointing fourth when sent off favourite in the Prix Niel, even accounting for acclimatisation. He didn’t look at home on the soft ground that day, but it looks unlikely to be any quicker this Sunday.

Titleholder looks the clear Japanese number one in any case, with a much broader array of Grade 1 form. A winner of the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St Leger), the Tenno Sho and Takarazuka Kinen, he has a similar profile to Orfevre, who won two of those races before he was such a heart-breaking runner-up in 2012.

Stamina looks a strong suit for Titleholder, but the softer ground is an unknown. As far as form ties go there aren’t many, but he looks a much stronger contender than last year’s Prix Foy winner, Deep Bond, who trailed in last in the Arc, given he easily beat that rival by seven lengths at Hanshin in May.

Tactically, he would probably want a draw in that two to seven block, judging by his style of racing. He made all in tremendous fashion to win the Tenno Sho, while he was out quickly last time in the Takarazuka Kinen, even if he did eventually take a lead from Panthalassa from the first corner.

It's hard to quantify how good he is in relation to the European horses, but in an average renewal it would be no great surprise if he became a historic first Arc winner for Japan - although the combo of softening ground and solid single-figure prices are putting me off backing him to go and do it.

8. There are a good portion of massive outsiders, who appeals the most?

Can you imagine it? “I knew I didn’t need Baaeed for the Arc as I had this one at home,” says a beaming William Haggas, just after Alenquer’s stunning success at 100/1.

No? Well here’s the case for a small each-way wager at a massive price:

He’s unexposed over 1m4f having just raced over the trip four times in his life. He’s a winner at Royal Ascot over 1m4f in testing ground. He was too keen to do himself justice when beaten nearly seven lengths in this race last year, but he looks much more tractable now.

He’s a Group One winner this season, where he beat a couple of subsequent Royal Ascot winners. He’s had excuses for his last two runs - not being suited by making the running in the Eclipse before being outpaced in the Irish Champion.

Perhaps he’s not as good as he was, perhaps he wouldn’t be good enough at his very best anyway. But we know Adlerflug progeny love the Arc – see Torquator Tasso and In Swoop – and maybe, just maybe, this four-year-old has just needed a test of stamina of the sort he hasn’t had for a while.

He'll be in the trifecta perm if he runs, anyway!

9. Could the Mishriff curveball pay off?

Baaeed’s Arc swerve has seen Vadeni’s hat thrown into the ring and he’s not the only slightly surprising runner as a maximum field of 20 tends to suggest.

Mishriff’s entry is in the eyebrow-raising category, although perhaps it’s not too much of a shock to see John Gosden try something different after he was put in his place in the Irish Champion Stakes.

His neck second to Vadeni in the Coral-Eclipse suggests he’s overpriced on this season’s form alone at 28/1, but I struggle to warm to his claims over a testing mile and a half. He won the Sheema Classic over the trip at Meydan last year, but to see him at his very best his overall profile suggests he needs a strongly-run 10 furlongs more than anything.

His forays over the distance have been few and far between. There was his one-and-three-quarter-length second to Adayar in the King George in 2021 and his 11-length third to Pyledriver in this year’s renewal after a very slow start.

Neither run suggests he’s one to be interested in when it comes to the Arc, but the way he runs on over 10 sometimes suggests he wants 1m4f, his very best form entitles him to be the one they have to beat in the race and he is two from two in France, including a Prix du Jockey Club.

Do I want to back him for the Arc? Not really, no. But I can see why the Gosdens are having a go.

10. What’s your 1-2-3 for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe?

“It’s like people, if they’re very straightforward it’s amazing what you can do,” so said Sir Mark Prescott in the York winner’s enclosure in the aftermath of Alpinista’s excellent Yorkshire Oaks victory.

Like Sir Mark suggests, there are very few questions Alpinista has to answer. She stays so well, she’s in great form, she travels overseas without fuss, she’s calm, she relaxes and she’s versatile regarding race tactics.

Her form with Torquator Tasso gives her a huge chance in this race and it could well be that last year’s winner is the one she has to beat, given things are coming together nicely for him.

Alenquer, for the reasons given above, is the outta-the-ballpark selection for the trifecta slot.

1. ALPINISTA
2. Torquator Tasso
3. Alenquer

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