Arc de Triomphe tips: Antepost preview & best value bets for Arc at Longchamp
Our man is on the hunt for the early value in one of Europe's flagship Flat races - the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.
Antepost Value Bet tips: Flat season 2022
1pt win New London in Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at 20/1 (bet365, William Hill) - minimum 16/1
The clamour to see Baaeed run in the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe was inevitable following such a straightforward success at York, but it’s still by no means guaranteed that he’s on his way to Longchamp on October 2.
If a trip to France happens to be ruled out for the favourite then those closest to the head of the betting are bound to shorten quite significantly, but NEW LONDON is the one to have on side at this point as his current price of 20/1 (bet365, William Hill) may well be slashed as early as this Saturday, regardless of anything to do with Baaeed.
Granted, no horse has won the St Leger and Arc in the same season, but the 22-day gap between the two races isn’t a particularly terrifying turnaround and Charlie Appleby stablemate Hurricane Lane almost pulled it off last year when a close third to Torquator Tasso after hacking up on Town Moor.
New London is already odds-on across the board for the Leger this weekend, having seemingly started the season as Godolphin’s number one Derby hope, and he's clearly returned from a 65-day layoff a much-improved horse with wins at Newmarket and Goodwood.
At the July Course he gave over a stone and a three-length beating to Swilcan Bridge, who had previously won the big 10-furlong handicap for three-year-olds on Derby day at Epsom, while last time out the imposing son of Dubawi beat Deauville Legend with a degree of comfort (replay below).
Admittedly, the runner-up was conceding 3lb on that occasion, having won the Bahrain Trophy the time before, but he’s since also snared the Great Voltigeur at York, so it’s clearly excellent form and New London was well on top at the line after not doing a huge amount once hitting the front.
For further context, Derby runner-up Hoo Ya Mal was back in third in the Gordon Stakes and he’s since done his bit by landing skinny odds in a Group Three back at Goodwood just last weekend, with fifth home Cresta winning at Listed level on the same Saturday as well.
It looks almost certain that New London can be considered a Group One winner in waiting and the most exciting aspect of his overall profile is that, no doubt partly due to the enforced summer break, he’s only really beginning to approach full throttle as we head into the autumn of his Classic campaign.
Interestingly, St Leger winner Masked Marvel and Arc hero Waldgeist both feature on the dam’s side of his pedigree, so it wouldn’t take too much of a stretch of the imagination to assume Appleby has been plotting the ‘Hurricane Lane route’ into Longchamp for this horse for a little while now.
He’s the most fascinating three-year-old in the field for my money, and that includes Japanese Derby winner Do Deuce and Irish Derby winner Westover, who have both recorded higher performance ratings to this point but each have their own questions to answer.
If Baaeed does turn up then his main danger on the book will come from the other principal Japanese runner – namely Titleholder. In contrast to the hold-up horse Do Deuce, Titleholder is generally rapid from the gates and races far more exuberantly in the early stages of his races.
Already proven over much longer distances as well, he’s thriving at four and was never better than when handsomely seeing off a deep home field in the often-informative Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin towards the end of June. It will be fascinating to see if he’s given the option of a prep run next weekend as Do Deuce is pencilled in for the Prix Niel, but at 14/1 I don’t see an awful lot happening with the latter's price, unless he’s wildly impressive which seems unlikely.
The French challenge is noticeably weak this year, Al Hakeem (25/1 in a place) and Onesto (20/1) making no more than moderate appeal. If there’s a fly in the ointment among the locals then look out for three-year-old filly La Parisienne, who gave Nashwa a small fright in the Prix de Diane. It’s likely she’ll run in the Prix de l’Opera over 10 furlongs, but her connections haven’t ruled out a shot at the Arc at this stage and the 33s available might be of interest a little closer to the time if heading this way.
Aside from Baaeed, Kyprios is arguably one of the more interesting who could yet come into the race from leftfield. He’s clearly a top-class stayer but Aidan O’Brien continues to discuss gradually 'easing' him back in trip ahead of his Irish St Leger outing next Sunday. If he wins with his head in his chest at the Curragh, then he might just find himself in an otherwise light Ballydoyle squad bound for the Arc.
He could conceivably be team captain, but that still might not be enough to see the trainer win the great race for a third time.
Published at 1600 BST on 04/09/22
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