Arc de Triomphe preview: Luxembourg and Titleholder to battle it out
Fran Berry analyses the Japanese challenge in this year's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe before concluding the Longchamp prize may in fact be heading back to Ireland.
The Japanese racing world has a real love-affair with the Arc de Triomphe and while I don't quite know how the fascination really began, trying to win Europe's premier middle-distance turf race has turned into a bit of an obsession for the whole racing community over there in the last 20 or 30 years.
Deep Impact would have been the most high-profile to try and fail when third, and with various other contenders being beaten over the years, including Orfevre who looked to have the race won before idling and being collared by Olivier Peslier on Solemia in 2012, the hunger to win it has only grown stronger, something I've witnessed first-hand during my time in Japan.
It's great to see the Japanese horses really out in force this year - post-Covid - with a couple of different approaches to trying to get them there in peak form. Titleholder hasn't been seen on the track in Europe yet, whereas Do Deuce and Stay Foolish have run in French trials, while Deep Bond has Arc experience from last year.
The decision not to prep Titleholder on the track probably has something to do with the fact he goes so well fresh, something he showed when winning first time out in March 2021 and again, after 90 days out of action, when successful in the Group Two Nikkei Sho this spring.
Given he's won over two miles and 10 furlongs in the past, connections obviously feel going into an Arc with a little bit of fizz still in him is the right approach, rather than to run him somewhere and perhaps take that fizz and freshness out of him. Time will tell on that score, but he'll be as fit as they can have him.
Interestingly, the hood he wore when making all the running in the Tenno Sho earlier this year is back on after he ran without it in the Takarazuka Kinen when last seen in June. He's labelled as a front-runner but he's been headed early on in one or two of his races back home and has looked content to take a lead, so I'm not convinced he'll be ridden hard to try and make all the running as we know that's not an easy tactic to pull off in a race of this nature.
The crunch question with Titleholder is whether soft ground will be a problem and, in all honesty, it would have to be a worry for all the Japanese runners, and may have contributed in part to this long wait for a first winner.
It's not that they don't get soft ground over there at all but it's definitely not quite the same as French soft ground and Longchamp can get very deep after some heavy rain, with plenty in the forecast for Saturday at least. Their horses are very accustomed to racing on a quick surface, so it's something they'll have to acclimatise too quickly if they're going to be successful.
One thing you'd have to say with this horse in particular is that he's by Duramente - a Japanese Derby winner who, incidentally, I managed to somehow get beat on first time out what feels like a long time ago now (he reared up as the gates opened that day and ended up being champion three-year-old but there you go!) - and he's out of a Motivator mare which suggests he could handle some cut.
There's a heavy European influence on Japanese pedigrees in general now, it's just that they're so accustomed to a sound surface. They're very strong, powerfully-built individuals who tend to get better from three to four, and from four to five, it's just they don't quite have that soft-ground conditioning which has probably contributed them not handling conditions.
The jockey situation is worth mentioning too as Titleholder will again be ridden by regular rider Kazuo Yokoyama, a son of multiple champion jockey Norihiro Yokoyama - a real legend over there who is still riding. Kazuo is a young rider making a big impression in Japan at the moment. His brother Takeshi came over to compete in this year's Shergar Cup.
In comparison to some of the older generation of Japanese jockeys, a lot are now travelling the world to gain experience of different jurisdictions and different racing cultures, and that has created more of a level playing-field, especially with the mix of foreign riders going to Japan over recent years too.
That said, in conversation with Mick Kinane prior to Irish Champions Weekend, it was interesting to hear Sea The Stars' jockey talking about how he felt Leopardstown and Longchamp were two of the trickiest courses to ride, both courses that really took a bit of knowing, so local know-how has to be factored in as well when it comes to this Sunday.
Stall 10 doesn't look too bad for Titleholder who is a proven stayer with a high cruising speed and he can really maintain that speed for a long way which should stand him in very good stead. It'll be very interesting to see if he can fully see out the final three furlongs here, and the ground may well be key to that effort. He's definitely got an each-way shot in coping with the going.
The other Japanese runners look a rung below but each have some merit. The Japanese Derby winner Do Deuce was held up off a strong gallop on that occasion and came through to lead before fighting off the late challenge in good style. This race was nominated as the plan straight away.
He looked badly in need of the run when fourth in his prep on French debut, having travelled quite well before getting tired inside the final two furlongs. He's got the benefit of a low draw and I wouldn't rule out some improvement from the Prix Niel, but he's obviously got to take a big step forward.
Stay Foolish, in fairness, is a very solid Group Two horse in Japan and he was ridden extremely well by Christophe Lemaire to win big races in Saudi Arabia and Meydan earlier this year. Lemaire is on board again and his experience of riding Longchamp is a huge asset, though it'll have to be riding out of stall 20 which looks difficult to overcome.
Deep Bond completes the challenge from Japan and he bombed out in the race last year after winning the Prix Foy where he beat Broome. It's hard to see him getting involved on that basis but he does come straight here fresh this year which looks a plus and, if the ground isn't deteriorating too much, could outrun his huge odds.
O'Brien ace the horse they all have to beat
I was at the Curragh on August 13 when Luxembourg made his comeback run after being injured following his third place in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and I must say, both physically looking at him pre-race and in the run itself when winning by a neck, I just couldn't see how Aidan O'Brien was going to turn him around to get him to win an Irish Champion Stakes in the space of three weeks.
However, when he walked into the parade ring at Leopardstown the other week he looked a different proposition entirely. He looked like a boxer stripped down and ready to fight.
Obviously, following the long layoff and the comeback run, he'd taken a massive step forward and it was a huge performance to win from Onesto and Vadeni. Given the general consensus all year that this was a Derby horse in the making, and the way he hit the line in Leopardstown, you would be quite hopeful that stepping up to a mile and a half could see him in an even better light.
On only his third run back after the layoff, he could be fitter still. He's a strong traveller, he relaxes and almost accidently he's one of the freshest horses in the race. He's also drawn well in eight and Ryan Moore is likely to just try and track the pace, but he's adaptable and it looks a perfect set-up for the horse.
Luxembourg's stablemate Broome is the only other Irish runner and he's probably best on a sound surface. He looks to be up against it and his main target could be something like the Breeders' Cup, where he's performed well in the past, or the Japan Cup.
I'd be relatively cool on Westover too. He was an authoritative winner of an Irish Derby that has worked out pretty poorly since. The manner in which he did it was quite taking but, in the fullness of time, beating Piz Badile, French Claim and a well below-par Tuesday has the feel of a Group Three at best.
You can put a line through his King George form and he's still unexposed in relation to a lot of these horses, but he'll need to find another chunk of improvement to be seriously competitive despite having a low draw to work with.
More from Sporting Life
- Racecards
- Fast results
- Full results and free video replays
- Horse racing news
- Horse racing tips
- Horse racing features
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Football and other sports tips
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.