Antepost Angle: Matt Brocklebank's best bets for the 2017 Arc de Triomphe at Chantilly
Matt Brocklebank reckons the vastly-experienced Highland Reel represents solid each-way value against the favourite in Sunday's Arc de Triomphe.
Antepost Angle: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
1pt e.w. Highland Reel in Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at 12/1 (General)
The 2017 Arc clearly revolves around Enable. She’s flourished since being stepped up to a mile and a half this term and would be a fitting winner of Europe’s premier middle-distance contest.
She goes about her business in effortless fashion and, unlike some of the very classiest thoroughbreds to have graced the turf down the years, she doesn’t mind handing out a severe beating to her rivals.
She won the Oaks and the Yorkshire Oaks by five lengths, bettered that by half a length in the Irish Oaks and pummelled a fine King George field by four and a half lengths in between.
In terms of form, that Ascot performance when she had Ulysses, Idaho and Highland Reel in behind was surely her best of the season and it’s hard to argue the odds-on quotes aren’t merited.
And yet those wishing to take her on can certainly cling to the fact that she’s been on the go since April, will be having her seventh outing of the season and must resume right at the peak of her powers following a break of a little over five weeks.
For all her grace and easy way of going, winning four consecutive Group One races by wide margins in the space of three months could potentially take the sting out of any three-year-old filly.
If she’s to under-perform just slightly, then there’s more than enough quality in opposition to take advantage and HIGHLAND REEL (12/1 generally) stands out at the prices.
Aidan O’Brien’s five-year-old has been a remarkable performer all over the world and took his career prize-money over the £6million mark when battling to victory in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot this summer.
He had Decorated Knight and Ulysses, subsequent winners of the Irish Champion Stakes and Coral Eclipse/Juddmonte International respectively, in behind that day, as if further confirmation of the son of Galileo’s raw ability were needed.
The elephant in the room when building a case for Highland Reel is obviously the heavy defeat he took from some of his Arc rivals – most notably the market leader - in the King George when last seen in late-July.
He looked outpaced, outclassed and likely to finish among the also-rans turning in that day, but his bravery shone through once more as he boxed on for fourth in conditions far softer than he would like.
He simply isn’t anywhere near as effective on easy going and shouldn’t be judged too harshly on that display.
It almost goes without saying there’s a significant risk backing a horse that needs good ground for an autumn Group One in France but that’s what we got 12 months ago as Highland Reel finished second to stablemate Found while the week’s forecast for the region does not look too bad.
Last year’s second came on his sixth outing of the season but he’s relatively fresh this time around and looks to have been underestimated in the betting having not been seen for two months.
Order Of St George has come in for support and seemingly may have the services of Ryan Moore but Capri also deserves a significant mention after winning a very competitive St Leger in gritty fashion.
Winter is far from certain to line up at this stage and Idaho and Seventh Heaven don’t look up to this level.
Another O’Brien stablemate, Cliffs Of Moher has looked short of a turn of foot in his recent assignments over 10 furlongs and the Derby second could take a significant step forward returned to this trip.
He’s a potential springer in the market at 33/1 and is worth keeping an eye on after the draw and the jockey bookings are confirmed.
Elsewhere, Andre Fabre’s Cloth Of Stars is entitled to leave his prep run well behind but his stamina for this kind of test is not yet guaranteed and the same could also be argued of King George runner-up Ulysses who is so well suited travelling strongly off a strong gallop over a mile and a quarter.
French Derby winner Brametot is prone to strangely slow starts and didn’t get away with it when well held by Eminent at Deauville. He’s one to oppose on that evidence but the German challenger Dschingis Secret – who had Cloth Of Stars behind when winning the Prix Foy – is a threat to all if the ground turns heavy.