Antepost Angle: 2017 Ayr Gold Cup betting preview & tips
Our Matt Brocklebank previews the William Hill Ayr Gold Cup and has a strong long-range fancy in the latest Antepost Angle column.
Recommended bets: Ayr Gold Cup
2pts e.w. Johnny Barnes in William Hill Ayr Gold Cup at 20/1 (General)
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JOHNNY BARNES was unfortunate not to finish closer than eighth in last year's Ayr Gold Cup and looks well set to make amends on September 23 this time around.
The race has in all probability been in mind for connections ever since his excellent run in spite of a troubled passage behind Brando, Growl et al last autumn, and trainer John Gosden was pretty emphatic in his post-race comments following the horse's impressive victory over seven furlongs at Goodwood recently.
"He's in the Ayr Gold Cup, where he was very unlucky last year, and we'll take a look at that," was Gosden's assessment after Johnny Barnes opened his account for the year with a one-length beating of Burnt Sugar (click here for free video replay) and it makes a lot of sense from a handicapping perspective given that that win came two days after the publication of the Ayr weights.
He consequently carries a 5lb penalty (officially raised 7lb, so effectively 2lb well in) and that will ensure beyond doubt that he makes the final cut.
The fourth career success had been a long time coming for the son of Acclamation, but his latent talent had been bubbling away under the surface for some time, having been second in the Group One Criterium International at Saint-Cloud during his juvenile days, and a fast-finishing fourth in the Gigaset International Stakes at Ascot at the end of July served notice of what was to come on the Sussex Downs last time.
Seven furlong races have clearly been on Johnny Barnes' agenda since a disappointing comeback run over six at Windsor at the start of the year, but that's no bad thing at all when it comes to winning an Ayr Gold Cup and I'm convinced he has the requisite pace.
The ability to travel sweetly in a big field and stay further than the bare distance of the race has proved to be a real positive in this particular event down the years, while the five-year-old's "quick, digging action" is another major asset given how testing the ground can become by the end of the Western Meeting.
Returning for a second crack should also stand the selection in good stead. The likes of Fonthill Road (2006), Advanced (2007), Redford (2010), Highland Colori (2013) and Louis The Pious (2014) had all been beaten in either a Silver or Gold Cup before winning the big one so Johnny Barnes would be in good company were he to provide Gosden with his first success in the race.
Sent off at 25/1 under Rab Havlin last season having been off the track since finishing seventh of eight in a Listed race in his previous run three months earlier, his preparation this year looks to have gone significantly smoother and for a such a classy, thriving horse, from a top-class stable, with course form and the ability to stay further, odds of 20/1 (General) just look to good to resist.
The most obvious ones in opposition at this stage are improving three-year-olds Ekhtiyaar and Golden Apollo, who perhaps aren't so sure of making the cut but should be thereabouts if recent seasons can be used as a guide.
Roger Varian's Ekhtiyaar, in particular, looks a Group-class sprinter in the making and has shown he can handle a little ease underfoot when winning at Newmarket in the spring.
Really testing ground would be another matter and either way it's not been an easy race for younger legs, Richard Fahey's Don't Touch and Dandy Nicholls' Funfair Wane the only three-year-old winners in 20 years, so I'm happy to double the stakes and go single-handed with Johnny Barnes, who has such an exciting profile for the race.
Posted at 1940 BST on 29/08/17.