Matt Brocklebank's Antepost Angle preview of the William Hill St Leger at Doncaster

Recommended Bets: William Hill St Leger

1pt e.w. Count Octave in St Leger at 25/1 - Unexposed Frankel colt that could enhance claims at York for connections that have been there and done it before

1pt e.w. Belgravia in St Leger at 50/1 - Trainer has a great record in the race and this horse has been overlooked on his last few pieces of form, still has more to offer

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Three-year-olds from powerhouse yards of Aidan O’Brien, Sir Michael Stoute and John Gosden dominate the betting for the William Hill St Leger. Capri shot to the top of the betting after grinding it out in the Irish Derby, Queen’s Vase winner Stradivarius enhanced his claims with victory over Big Orange in the Goodwood Cup, while Crystal Ocean oozed class in the Gordon Stakes.

The latter, a big gamble for Epsom before his third in the Dante, looks a most promising long-term prospect and could develop into a horse Stoute aims towards all the top-class middle-distance races next season, but his jockey Ryan Moore wasn’t entirely convinced he was a Leger candidate in the immediate aftermath at Goodwood, warning "I really don’t think he’s a mile and six horse..."

Granted, the trainer sounded considerably more upbeat about a crack at Doncaster on September 16 but there’s no doubt Moore’s view will be given serious consideration before any commitment is made and there could also be a slight doubt over the participation of fellow market leader Capri.

His stamina isn’t absolutely certain despite being a son of Galileo – his dam was a classy sprinter – and besides, O’Brien hasn’t run a previous Classic winner in the Leger since Camelot’s Triple Crown bid came unstuck at the hands of Encke five years ago.

Capri has all the entries suggesting he might buck that recent trend but he’s also as short as 14/1 in places for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and there's a possibility he could be aimed towards Chantilly instead, with O’Brien seemingly boasting a distinct lack of firepower for Europe’s premier middle-distance contest, barring Highland Reel, who played his part in last year's historic one-two-three for Ballydoyle.

Stradivarius is an altogether different beast and is evidently laden with stamina, as his pedigree would suggest. He benefited from a considerable weight allowance to beat the Ascot Gold Cup hero last week but he’s now a Group One winner who stays exceptionally well and is all-but confirmed for the race. His trainer John Gosden has won the Leger three times in the last 10 years and would be an obvious selection against the top two were he not so short in the betting himself.

Taking a direct line through the form of Stradivarius, COUNT OCTAVE looks the one who has been underestimated as a 25/1 chance (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3).

The immediate caveat before we go any further is that bottomless ground would most likely put paid to his chances of lining up as trainer Andrew Balding is on record stating he wouldn’t want it too soft, but it’s not always quite so bad on Leger day and if it’s anything like good ground then this horse has a serious chance.

He was only third on his sole start at two in a Goodwood maiden won by Monarchs Glen but immediately got off the mark for 2017 at Wolverhampton in March, after which Balding ran him in the Chester Vase.

He wasn't disgraced in fifth, not too far behind the subsequent Derby winner Wings Of Eagles, but his neck second to Stradivarius in the Queen’s Vase represented a definite step in the right direction and there was a lot to like about the way he knuckled down in the home straight after travelling really sweetly throughout.

Balding’s horses have been running extremely well all season and owners Qatar Racing have previous with the Leger, having won it with Simple Verse a couple of years ago, so it’s most likely to be the end-of-season target, with a possible crack at the Great Voltigeur at York to come before then.

A positive showing on the Knavesmire would see his odds come tumbling down and I very much want the son of Frankel on side before any more of his untapped potential is unearthed.

If the race cuts up badly, as is often the case, and favourite Capri is rerouted then successfully identifying O’Brien’s main candidates could be hugely rewarding given his record in the race (four wins) and the fact he has several trading at long odds at this stage, and BELGRAVIA looks worth a punt as he too represents the Queen’s Vase form from Royal Ascot.

He was sent off favourite under Ryan Moore and might have finished a little closer in fourth had he not suffered trouble in the run and, along with Stradivarius, is the other subsequent winner to have emerged from the race (sixth home Desert Skyline has been second to Raheem House in the Bahrain Trophy and third in the Goodwood Cup since).

It was only a minor event over a mile and a half in which Belgravia scrambled home at Leopardstown last month but he was gutsy in the closing stages and looks like a colt still growing into his frame.

He was 3/1 to win the Group Two Curragh Cup against older rivals on his penultimate outing so is obviously thought quite highly of and, as a brother to Ruler Of The World, he’s bred to win Classics.

Stablemates Venice Beach, Sir John Lavery, Douglas Macarthur and Taj Mahal are others who could shorten markedly between now and the Leger, but Belgravia appeals on the back of that last-time-out, confidence-boosting win and at 50/1 (William Hill, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3) he’s the most appealing each-way play of the O'Brien options.

Posted at 2130 on 07/08/17.