Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to the Breeders' Cup at Keeneland and settles on a British raider heading for the Mile as the standout bet.
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1pt win Safe Voyage in Breeders’ Cup Mile at 16/1
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It may seem like potential leading Breeders’ Cup contenders from Britain and Ireland have been dropping like flies over the past few weeks, but not all is lost.
Last year Magical was unfortunately scratched at the start of the week at Santa Anita and it appears that Aidan O’Brien’s seven-time Group One winner will be given her chance of atonement at Keeneland on November 7, while Tarnawa could well be the next budding star ready to take the middle-distance world by storm.
There is a perfectly reasonable train of thought which suggests the Dermot Weld-trained, Aga Khan-owned filly – something of a throwback in terms of globetrotting superstars – would have gone close to winning the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe had she contested the race.
Instead she was kept to her own sex in Paris and showed an abundance of class and guts to get up close home in the Prix de l’Opera from Alpine Star.
But therein lies the issue when it comes to having a long-range bet on either of these likely lasses – we cannot be sure at which race they are likely to be aimed.
It is widely presumed – following an admittedly brief twitter poll - Magical will probably run in the Turf – the race in which she duelled with Enable so memorably at Churchill Downs in 2018 – and yet it was the Filly & Mare Turf that was her intended target in the States last year, while she’s raced solely at 10 furlongs throughout the 2020 campaign.
O’Brien had Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck gunning for the Turf last term which may have had an impact on the mare’s programme, but Mogul is already favourite for the 12-furlong race this time around so the option to split up the yard’s supposed big two is clearly there once more.
If the Lads get behind Mogul, they’re unlikely to take him on with their star mare and still I can’t quite be convinced to snap up the current 5/1 about her providing O’Brien with his first ever Cup victory in a fillies-only race.
As for Tarnawa it could come down to the state of the ground – something that is far from guaranteed during the autumn in Kentucky.
Weld has stated on quick conditions his impressive Prix Vermeille winner is more likely to head to the Turf, but it is clearly another situation far from set in stone.
Those two races are consequently passed over, despite the Filly & Mare providing Europe’s sole success story last year in Iridessa.
One trainer who evidently prides himself on his transatlantic strike-rate is Charlie Appleby, who was 3-6 at the Breeders’ Cup before Old Persian rather let the side down when beating only one home in the Turf last year.
Wild Illusion – sent off the 9/4 favourite for the Filly & Mare Turf at Churchill a couple of years ago – was one that got away for the Godolphin trainer. She looked to have the race won when edging past front-running Raving Beauty, only for Sistercharlie to come sweeping over the top.
I was all for bigging up the chances of Wild Illusion’s full-brother Yibir ahead of a possible shot at the Juvenile Turf until Appleby’s midweek interview on Racing TV stating he had nothing in mind for the fixture this year.
One thing I liked about Yibir is that he had nothing to prove in terms of stamina.
Plenty of high-class, speedy juveniles find themselves flung into this race rather prematurely almost as an afterthought at the end of the year and ultimately get found out badly. The natural pace to cope with a turning mile has to be there, but fully seeing out the trip is absolutely essential too.
Seven of the previous 13 winners of the Juvenile Turf, including Appleby-trained duo Outstrip and Line Of Duty, had been successful at a mile or beyond leading up to the race. Only two winners had not already won at seven furlongs.
That’s clearly not a stick to be beating antepost favourite Battleground with, but the two right behind him in the market - Jessica Harrington’s Cadillac and Todd Pletcher’s course winner Mustasaabeq – can both point to wins over a mile on their CV.
The most interesting Euro at this juncture could be runaway Lagardere (7f) winner Sealiway (10/1, General), but there’s no real point backing him now as he definitely needs at least some cut in the ground by the looks of things and he’ll still be overlooked in the market on the night even with a local thunderstorm or two in the build-up.
He coped with the horrible going at ParisLongchamp better than anything but runner-up Nando Parrado – Clive Cox’s Coventry Stakes winner – had shown he handles soft well enough when second to Campanelle in the Prix Morny.
Sealiway slammed him by eight lengths which looked a bit freakish, but no doubt he’s obviously really progressive, has bags of stamina and could be quite interesting with a no-nonsense ride if given the green light to travel.
The raiding party have had plenty of success in the Breeders’ Cup Mile if you go back far enough, though John Gosden’s win in the inaugural running in 1984 doesn’t exactly count as he was training out of California at the time.
Vincent O’Brien, Luca Cumani and John Oxx all won the race in the 1990s then came a flurry from France as Pascal Bary’s 2002-03 double with Domedriver and Six Perfections was closely followed by the era of Goldikova who took three in a row (2008-2010).
Since then only the Jonathan Pease-trained has Karakonite (2014) and Sir Michael Stoute’s Expert Eye (2018) have managed to deny the home contingent Mile glory and it’s clear American turf racing in general has become far more competitive.
Chad Brown leads the way and he got a monkey off his back in considerable style with breakthrough wins in the Turf and the Mile last season, and it appears star mare Uni is circling back to peak form following her First Lady Stakes victory at the start of the month. Brown used that as the final prep for his Mile heroine last year and she’s a massive threat to Andrew Balding’s Kameko, who has topped the betting since Pinatubo’s retirement announcement.
It’ll be one last hurrah for the 2000 Guineas winner and the same goes for Siskin after it was revealed he, too, will bid to end on a high before heading off to stud.
Siskin was settling around the 10/1 mark following the news on Wednesday which seems perfectly fair, but it’s not hard to be drawn to the claims of SAFE VOYAGE at 16s (General).
He’s seven now but there’s no doubt he’s improved again this year and he’ll relish a return to this longer trip based on his close third in the Prix de La Foret.
He definitely stays a mile these days – he battled all the way to the line when edging out Sinawann in the Boomerang – but his sprinting/seven-furlong history will stand him in really good stead around the turns at Keeneland. In terms of ground it’s evidently the more rain the better, but he handles a decent surface too.
Foret one-two One Master – who produced another brilliant effort on Champions Day - and Earthlight are two genuine top-level performers who would be much shorter than Safe Voyage currently is in the betting were they bound for the race.
He very nearly beat them in France and looks perfectly equipped to give North Yorkshire trainer John Quinn and connections a moment to remember.
Posted at 1645 BST on 21/10/20
John Quinn on Safe Voyage:
"He's very neat and the mile around two bends will be right up his alley. He's very good everywhere but he's been good left-handed at York and Leopardstown so we thought he has enough speed, while he'll get the mile well." - Click here for full story.
Breeders’ Cup Mile – Keeneland, 2015...
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