Our expert Matt Brocklebank looks ahead to the QIPCO 2000 Guineas at Newmarket next month and nominates a 40/1 chance in the latest Antepost Angle.
Recommended bets: QIPCO 2000 Guineas
LARCHMONT LAD is fancied to follow in the footsteps of 2014 winner Night Of Thunder and spring a QIPCO 2000 Guineas surprise for the Richard Hannon team.
Hannon didn’t have a runner in the first Classic last season, when Galileo Gold stormed to victory under Frankie Dettori, but that was the first time since Haafhd’s Guineas in 2004 that the East Everleigh/Herridge stables hadn’t been represented in the race.
Considering the 2000 Guineas is still sometimes referred to as the final two-year-old race of the previous season due to its early slot in the Flat schedule, it makes sense that the Hannons invariably have a strong hand, such is their longstanding prowess in the juvenile division, and the race has been kind to the yard in the last few years, despite only the one victory to speak of.
Night Of Thunder certainly wasn’t the most fancied of Hannon’s recent Guineas runners, famously defying odds of 40/1 to get the better of Kingman and Australia, but it was an overdue win in many ways, Richard Hannon senior having last tasted success in the event with Tirol in 1990 (won it three times in total).
Night Of Thunder was also breaking a frustrating run of recent near-misses, runners-up Dick Turpin and Dubawi Gold bumping into Makfi and Frankel respectively before Trumpet Major and Coup De Ville filled fourth and fifth behind Camelot, and Travel Brother ran a stormer in third to Dawn Approach (stablemate Toronado fourth).
There was yet another creditable placing in 2015 as Ivawood won the mini-race in the centre of the track, only to finish third overall as Gleneagles took top spot, so on that basis alone it’s a touch surprising that Hannon’s principal form hope is trading at such a big price.
There are five other entries from the yard, with Barney Roy interestingly attracting some support having been bought by Godolphin over the winter and another likely to be primed for this early-season target. The Greenham Stakes at Newbury, a race Hannon Sr. won six times, looks like a logical first port of call.
The son of top-class miler Excelebration is a fascinating prospect for the year ahead but his Haydock maiden form, which hasn’t worked out particularly well, leaves him with something to find with the pick of the horses he could face at Newbury, let alone Newmarket.
Larchmont Lad, however, has received a number of boosts to his form since he won the Group Three Tattersalls Stakes on the Rowley Mile in September, not least fourth home Best Solution winning a Group Three before posting a close second in Group One company in France at the end of the season.
In total, the Tattersalls has produced three subsequent winners, while it’s also worth pointing out that seven future scorers emerged from Larchmont Lad’s Sandown maiden (including himself) when he won by three and a quarter-lengths on debut last July.
In between those victories the Footstepsinthesand (2005 Guineas winner) colt was third in a blanket finish in Doncaster’s Listed Flying Scotsman Stakes, where he was bumped when mounting a challenge between runners (and may even have received an accidental crack of Silvestre de Sousa’s whip across the nose for good measure).
That battling display obviously made a man of him as there was loads to like about the way he handled the Dip on the Rowley Mile when accounting for some very useful rivals when last seen.
Hannon reports him to have done well over the winter and it’s hoped he can enhance his Classic claims, and gain more experience of the Newmarket track in the process, when he reappears in the bet365 Craven Stakes next week.
Right at the top of the market sits Churchill, who racked up a sequence of five wins, including two Group Ones, after being beaten on his Curragh debut last May. It’s extremely hard to pick holes in his style of racing as like so many greats before him he seems to simply just do enough to get the job done on the day.
The biggest negative is clearly his price around the 6/4 mark but there’s also a degree of risk in banking on such a huge, imposing two-year-old making further physical progress at three.
Churchill obviously needed his first outing last year and he is currently 5/1 favourite for the Derby. While not wishing to get too carried away in opposing a trainer who has won the 2000 Guineas on seven previous occasions, all of which were making their seasonal debut, the lack of a prep could conceivably give the opposition some hope that he might not be returning right at the peak of fitness.
There are also mixed messages in his form lines, often beating speedy-looking horses who looked best served by sprinting, such as Blue Point and the now-retired Mehmas, while 66/1 stablemate Lancaster Bomber followed him home in the Dewhurst. Subsequent Racing Post Trophy winner Rivet, however, was well beaten off back in fifth.
William Haggas has already suggested Rivet may ultimately be aimed towards the French Guineas instead of Newmarket and with plans also still up in the air for some other key stable companions of Churchill, namely Caravaggio and War Decree, it was no surprise to see recent Prix Djebel winner Al Wukair slashed in the market after his impressive comeback at Maisons-Laffitte.
Master trainer Andre Fabre, a dual Guineas winner on these shores in the mid-90s, has nominated Newmarket for the Al Shaqab-owned, Dream Ahead colt and stepping back up to a mile, the trip at which he won a Listed race from subsequent Group Three scorer Gold Luck in the autumn, looks a major plus point.
His form is bombproof and it’s hard to argue with his revised price of 5/1, but he was 33s at the end of March and is unlikely to get significantly shorter now if Churchill stands his ground.
Godolphin have an intriguing selection decision to make, with Royal Lodge winner Best Of Days and Superlative scorer Boynton both entitled to figure having landed Group Two prizes last term.
Neither is particularly strong in the betting and it seems there’s more momentum growing around the chances of the aforementioned Barney Roy, Dream Castle and Swiss Storm, who they have also bought into during the off season.
Dream Castle landed the odds in style on his Doncaster debut in a maiden at the Lincoln meeting and is another that goes into the category of lightly-raced Frankel colts who ‘could be anything’.
In the same bracket sits Cracksman, in the Oppenheimer silks of Golden Horn. He’s shortened up for the Derby in recent days but could certainly represent John Gosden here prior to a possible shot at the Dante, though it’s noteworthy the trainer has never saddled a 2000 Guineas winner (and only once landed the 1000 Guineas). He’s under consideration for a prep in the Greenham.
The David Elsworth-trained Swiss Storm made a big impression when winning at Newbury on his second start at two and fellow son of Frankel Eminent caught the eye at Newmarket when winning first time out for Martyn Meade.
The former has seemingly been well found in the market but the gorgeous-looking Eminent – 33/1 at the time of writing - could certainly be a flagbearer for Meade in 2017 and is said to be on target for the Craven.
However, at the same price and with proven Group form in the book, Larchmont Lad represents the pick of the value as things stand and the Hannon record suggests there’s every chance he could outrun those odds and usurp some of the better-fancied runners on May 6.
Posted at 1500 BST on 12/04/17.