Analysis and tips for the November Handicap, Grand Sefton and Badger Beers Chase

Are you for or against Valvano in the November Handicap?

Matt Brocklebank: One last chance to land a big-priced winner in a competitive turf handicap on the Flat this year… of course I’m against the favourite! On a more serious note, I’m a bit surprised Ralph Beckett’s lightly-raced horse has got away with no rise in his rating following such a promising handicap debut in a hot race behind subsequent Listed winner Bolster and the reopposing Stressfree at York. But he’s not proven at the trip, whereas I’d much prefer my November Handicap horse to be one who definitely stays. There are a few options, including Valvano’s solid-looking stablemate Lord Melbourne, while Dark Moon Rising is another who should benefit from a step back up to a mile and a half. Drying ground would probably be in his favour, likewise Adjuvant, and I don’t think Insanity is one to be giving up on yet either as he’s a good bit better than he was able to show at York, where jumping the path probably didn’t help his cause.

Ben Linfoot: What a fantastic year for Ralph Beckett including an Arc and a Breeders’ Cup win. You take him on at your peril. Having said that Valvano looks short enough in a 23-runner race in which he is unproven over the trip, so I’ll probably look elsewhere at the prices. Of course, you do so with trepidation. He’s in-form, unexposed, from a red-hot yard and his pedigree suggests he might even improve at the trip. He is fully respected.

Andy McLaren: I won’t be in a rush to lay him, put it that way, but will I be backing him at 9/2 in a 23-runner handicap on his first go at this trip? Probably not. His second behind Notable Speech at Kempton in April is extremely strong form the way he shaped in third at York last time suggests there are some good races to be won with him from this mark. He’s still far from the finished article though and I worry that the hustle and bustle of a race like this might come too soon in his development before he can really kick on next year. Miller Spirit will do for me with some double-figure odds available on Thursday afternoon. He’s won his last three for Gary & Josh Moore, loves soft ground and I don’t think a 7lb rise in the weights is enough to stop this thriving son of Australia winning again.

Does anything appeal on the Doncaster undercard?

MB: Patience is wearing a bit thin but the final day of the season is precisely when a horse like Quest For Fun might just pop up at a price and there’s no question the handicapper has given him a proper chance in the opening apprentice riders’ handicap. Now 4lb lower than when last successful in October last year, he goes on any ground and shaped quite well when fifth back up to seven furlongs here last time. The excellent Archie Young has a tidy record (one win and one second from just three rides) for Tim Easterby and the drop in grade looks ideal for this horse.

BL: Let’s stick with that man Beckett. He runs Priapos in the Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Nursery Handicap over six furlongs at 2.00. This son of Zoustar will love the ground. He showed more on heavy ground after being gelded and having had a couple of months off at Newbury at the end of last month. It looked like it could be a platform to go and win from and he enters calculations off top weight here.

AM: I thought Ten Bob Tony was interesting dropping back to six furlongs in the listed Wentworth Stakes. An impressive winner of a 7f conditions race which has worked out well in April, he was then pitched into the 2000 Guineas and the German equivalent where he acquitted himself well and looked unlucky not to win a Longchamp Group 3 in September after being pinned in a pocket against the rail while the winner, Topgear, got first run on him. He wasn’t in the same form behind that rival last time but I’ve thought for a while now that a drop in trip on soft ground could be the key to this talented son of Night Of Thunder and he gets the chance to prove that on Saturday.

What was your favourite moment of the Flat turf season?

MB: Tricky one. Financial interests aside, I’d like to nominate the continued rise of Crystal Black for Ger Keane. The scenes after he won the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot – under the trainer’s ice-cool son Colin and for owners the Wear A Pink Ribbon Syndicate – were genuinely joyous, and he’s undoubtedly one of the most-improved horses around having shot up from an official rating of just 77 last summer to his current 113.

BL: Having been fully invested in the City Of Troy story all year it has to be him. I saw him at Newmarket, Epsom and Del Mar and his Derby success stands out a mile. It was a fantastic performance to win from behind from the inconvenient one stall and while he failed to go out in a blaze of glory in America he has been the shining light in Europe this Flat season. Without him it would’ve been bleak.

AM: That’s an easy one for me. After I was lucky enough to visit Pat O’Donnell’s charming yard and welcomed in by his lovely family in the build-up to the Ebor Festival, I was absolutely over the moon to see Extensio – the horse he came home with after his wife asked him to go out for some tea bags – win the Sky Bet Stayers Handicap on the Wednesday at York and take £50k back to Ireland. You could see what it meant to Pat and his family in his brilliant post-race interview, and it was undoubtedly my highlight of the season.

The jumpers take centre stage now, who is on your radar for the Grand Sefton at Aintree?

MB: I like Frero Banbou running off what looks a very dangerous handicap mark (130) but so does the market and at longer odds I’m interested in Gaboriot for Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero. He was well placed to win three hunter chases earlier in the year but I think he could be capable of scaling a little higher and wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve got him fully tuned up for this comeback run. His excellent jumping should help him thrive in this environment although he did unseat on his one and only previous visit back in April.

BL: I can’t tell you how many times I backed Frero Banbou last season. Actually, I can: too many. But he loves these fences, he’s soooo well handicapped, he goes well fresh. Of course, I’m interested again. He is hard to win with, though, which counts against him and there are several viable alternatives here, like Percussion and Sure Touch. And it’s fascinating to see Harper’s Brook, a huge thinker, turn out first time for Dan Skelton following wind surgery.

AM: Latenightpass has to be high on the shortlist after the way he jumped and travelled in the Grand National. He has a terrific record over these fences with form figures of 214 in Foxhunters' and he was just done for stamina over the marathon trip in April having also covered lots of extra ground racing out wide. He looks sure to give you a good run for your money back at a more suitable trip.

Can Joe Tizzard continue his fine start to the season with The Changing Man in the Badger Beers at Wincanton?

MB: Joe Tizzard appears to be a man on a mission this autumn and the horse in question looks perfectly well handicapped on the pick of his form. He has had a wind op since last sighted and now runs with a tongue-tie too so that’s possibly not ideal at Wincanton, where getting into a decent rhythm both jumping and galloping is absolutely essential. Mofasa could be the obvious exception but it’s a race lacking obvious unexposed improvers and Remastered could give it a good shot as he looks to follow up last month’s course defeat of the revitalised Deise Aba. It wouldn’t be a particularly strong opinion, though.

BL: The Changing Man – a great song from a great Paul Weller album, Stanley Road. Worth a listen. The equine The Changing Man was 0/5 as a novice but his best run was his last one and he’s had wind surgery. He’s not for me. He looks short considering his record over fences. I’ll be happy for him to win if I bet against him, which I will be doing.

AM: He’ll take a bit of beating if in the same form as when splitting Stay Away Fay and Grey Dawning last year and you have to think this race has been on his radar for a while at his trainers’ local track, but he’s not run to that level in four runs since and he’s clearly had issues with his breathing as he returns after a wind op with a first time tongue strap fitted. Those couple of tweaks could work the oracle but it’s enough for me to leave him unbacked at around 3/1.

The one who struck me as overpriced was Forward Plan who was sixth in this race last year before really kicking on to win competitive handicaps at Doncaster and Kempton and finish placed in the Great Yorkshire Handicap and the big three-mile handicap on Grand National day. He doesn’t know how to run a bad race and looks sure to be involved at the finish again for last year’s winning trainer Anthony Honeyball.

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