Analysis and tips for the Breeders' Cup and Charlie Hall Chase
John Ingles, David Ord and Tony McFadden share their thoughts on the pick of the action this weekend, including the Breeders' Cup and Charlie Hall Chase.
Will City of Troy win the Breeders' Cup Classic?
John Ingles: There’s not much doubt that he has the most ability in the line-up, with only fellow three-year-old Fierceness being anywhere close in the ratings. It all comes down to whether or not he proves as good on the dirt. With Justify as his sire, there’s every chance he will be, and with no apparent equivalent of Tiznow in the field, who narrowly foiled Giant’s Causeway’s bid all those years ago, he can become Aidan O’Brien’s first winner of the race.
Dave Ord: Is a pass available? I won't be backing him - or taking him on. It's just we've seen so many go there before and come up short but is he different as Aidan suggests? Possibly. He's bred to get the job done and it looks like everything has been routine in the build-up. We'll know our fate early - he needs to jump and get rolling - but if he does it could be well worth grabbing hold of the TV controller on Saturday evening. Win, lose or draw it promises to be box office
Tony McFadden: He certainly has a great opportunity as this doesn't look like a vintage edition on ratings. The form City of Troy showed in the Juddmonte International places him 3 lb clear of Fierceness at the head of Timeform's ratings, while City of Troy is 7lb clear of the third highest-rated contender, Sierra Leone. The key is how well he handles the dirt, and his pedigree means encouragement can be taken on that score.
Which of the European runners at the Breeders' Cup is your strongest fancy?
JI: I’d be keen on Ramatuelle’s chances in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. The trip stretched her at Newmarket and Ascot but the emphasis is much more on speed at Del Mar which means this should be tailor-made for her. Her trainer Christopher Head has no doubt had plenty of advice from his dad Freddy who knows a thing or two about winning this race as both trainer and jockey and, after a nice break since Royal Ascot, Ramatuelle was impressive in the Prix de la Foret last time, taking the route Goldikova often used on the way to the Breeders’ Cup.
DO: Cogburn is a warm order for the home team in the Turf Sprint but at around 11/2 Bradsell looks a very solid bet. He’s drawn wider than ideal but has bags of tactical speed to take a prominent position and given the favourite has a Timeform master rating of 123, the British raider could give him plenty of problems on ground he’ll relish.
TM: Rebel's Romance looks to have strong claims of winning a second Breeders' Cup Turf. The 2022 winner had a quiet and largely underwhelming campaign last season but he's looked right back to his best this year, winning races in Qatar, Dubai, Hong Kong and Germany to enhance his globe-trotting reputation. His one defeat came when third in the King George at Ascot but even that wasn't a bad effort as he fared best of those ridden close to the pace in a contest run at an unrelenting gallop. Victory in the Preis von Europa at Cologne last month should have teed him up nicely for this.
What's your view on the Charlie Hall Chase?
JI: It’s not ideal that he has to give a bit of weight to the likes of Bravemansgame and Conflated, but Grey Dawning stands out as the one with the most potential in this field, especially going back over three miles.
DO: I'll take Bravemansgame to regain his crown. He was the penalised runner last season, and this time gets the weight form Grey Dawning. He might not have enjoyed a great campaign last term, but was second in the Betfair Chase and King George and will be primed for this return to action. He’s the one for me but Conflated is feared if his jumping holds together.
TM: Grey Dawning was Timeform's highest-rated novice chaser in Britain last season and looks capable of developing into a top-class staying chaser this season. It should be noted that he has been beaten on his reappearance for the last two seasons, but trainer Dan Skelton told the Racing Post earlier this week that Grey Dawning is fitter this time around. The recent good form of the Skelton stable is also in Grey Dawning's favour and, if the ground is deemed easy enough for him to run, I'd expect this up-and-comer to pass the test.
Which of Gordon Elliott's star-studded team at Down Royal could you see making the biggest splash in the ante-post markets?
JI: Firefox is the only horse to have beaten Ballyburn so far but somehow didn’t add to that success over hurdles last year although he ran really well at all the major spring Festivals. He shouldn’t have any trouble winning races over fences, though, and Friday’s beginners' chase has no doubt been a long-term plan given his trainer has farmed the race over the years with some future stars. Firefox also won the bumper on this card last year.
DO: A lot to go at but Romeo Coolio is a horse that excites me. The dogs were barking about him all last winter and while he was only workmanlike when winning on his Rules debut at Fairyhouse, he looked the real deal when cruising through the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham before finishing second to Jasmin De Vaux. He wasn’t right at Punchestown in May and will take high rank among the novice hurdlers this season – and he could lay down an early Sky Bet Supreme or Gallagher marker.
TM: Found A Fifty has to give a stone to Galway Plate winner Pinkerton in the Grade 2 chase at Down Royal on Saturday, so he doesn't face a penalty kick on his return. But I'd still expect him to be good enough to prevail and enhance his claims for the Ryanair Chase, for which he looks a big price at 33/1. Found A Fifty enjoyed an excellent first season over fences last year, with his record in Grade Ones reading two wins and three seconds from five starts. He was largely campaigned at around two miles but was a good runner-up to I Am Maximus in the Drinmore and remains with untapped potential at around two and a half miles.
Is there a handicapper you like the look of this weekend?
JI: It sounds as though White Rhino is highly regarded as a chasing prospect this season by Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero and he certainly has the look of one who’ll take well to the larger obstacles. He’s made huge strides in the handicap over hurdles in the last couple of seasons and was successful at Carlisle first time out last term as well as at Cheltenham later on. He looks to have been found a good opportunity to make a successful chasing debut at Ayr (2.29) on Saturday.
DO: There’s a few to go at but Break My Soul is very interesting in the Lavazza Handicap Hurdle at Ascot (3.15). A 290,000 purchase after winning her sole Irish point, she was a slow burner for new connections but came to life when winning back-to-back races at Chepstow and Fontwell in the spring. They weren’t deep contests, but she had any amount in hand and, confidence restored, looks the sort who could rate a little higher than 122 in the near future.
TM: Williethebuilder shaped well when runner-up on his reappearance at Wetherby a couple of weeks ago and is of interest over the same course and distance on Saturday (3.32). He lost out narrowly in a sprint finish after conceding first run, but there was a lot to like about how powerfully he travelled and how slickly he jumped, and he remains with untapped potential.
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