Analysis and tips for the Betfair Chase, Punchestown and more

Betfair Chase looks good, can Grey Dawning make the step up?

Matt Brocklebank: Of course he might step up to the plate and you certainly get the impression he’s been showing all the right signs at home. I can’t argue with the idea of him becoming a leading staying chaser this season – and for several seasons to come – but the Betfair Chase is quite an acquired taste on the staying chase menu. It’s a unique test, with some really bad weather on the radar to consider too. He won’t mind if it turns soft and does have winning course form which is a big plus for a horse priced up largely on potential, but I just fear that Royale Pagaille might outstay Grey Dawning. Venetia Williams’ 10-year-old has been lightly raced in recent seasons but he’s deadly around here and should at least put up some stern resistance. Some of the others look long-term Grand National projects so I’ll probably resist casting the net much wider.

Tony McFadden: Grey Dawning was Timeform's highest-rated novice chaser based in Britain last season and still has the Timeform 'p' to show he's likely to improve. He has needed the run on his reappearance for the last couple of seasons but will surely be much more tuned up this time around given the prize on offer and he can take the step up into open company in his stride. The rain in the forecast is also in his favour given his effectiveness with cut in the ground.

Ben Linfoot: He’s fascinating isn’t he? He was 15/8 and shortening on Tuesday but I guess the final decs have held up better than many expected as he’s 9/4 in quite a few places now at the time of writing. I don’t think that’s a bad price in this company and it could cut up a bit more with wet weather incoming. Having said that, for all that I expect him to make up into one of the regular A-grade staying chasers, this is a tough enough test on his first run outside of novice company on his first start in eight months. The punter in me is tempted to have a go against him and there are plenty of options, with Bravemansgame firmly on the radar now Paul Nicholls has reached for the blinkers. First-time headgear sharpened up both Silviniaco Conti and Clan Des Obeaux when they threatened to go off the rails and Nicholls is a master at using headgear to keep his grizzled staying chasers sweet.

How excited are you for the start of Ballyburn’s chasing career?

MB: Chasing makes all the sense in the world for Ballyburn and not only because Willie Mullins has the likes of State Man and Lossiemouth in the Champion Hurdle division. We’re dealing with a six-year-old point-to-point winner here, so they’ve got to crack on really if he’s to become a Gold Cup contender in 12 months’ time. I’m convinced that’s the sort of regard in which he’s held, and I’d imagine stamina will ultimately be his forte. So, I in short, wouldn’t be getting too carried away about him in the antepost betting for the Arkle when those quotes start flooding in on Saturday.

TM: In many ways it would have been more exciting had he been kept over hurdles and taken on the likes of State Man, Lossiemouth and Constitution Hill, as the early part of his chasing career is likely to be regulation stuff. It's hard to knock the decision, though, as he's rising seven so if connections see him as a chaser now's the time to kick on. Hopefully the decision to scrap the Turners Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival will ensure he faces a proper test there in the Arkle or Brown Advisory, even if he strings together a sequence beforehand.

BL: Yes, really looking forward to seeing him over a fence and like Matt says chasing always looked likely for him. It will be interesting to see which way Willie Mullins goes at the Cheltenham Festival with him now the Turners has been taken out of the equation and it won’t surprise anyone that he’s favourite for both the Arkle and the Brown Advisory. Before all that he’s got his chasing debut to get out of the way with a clear round and a victory in second gear likely to be on Mullins’ wish list.

How do you foresee the Unibet Morgiana Hurdle panning out?

MB: Hats off to Mullins for declaring State Man and Lossiemouth – plus Daddy Long Legs, Sir Gerhard and Winter Fog! – and we’re seemingly in for a proper race with Gordon Elliott pitching Brighterdaysahead in at this level too after her comeback win at Down Royal. Lossiemouth was the new favourite for the Champion Hurdle last time I looked so plenty of people obviously think she’ll step up to the plate later in the campaign but I wouldn’t be surprised if State Man held onto his crown here as he’s such a reliable type and sets the bar very high when it comes to Punchestown form.

TM: It strikes me as odd that Lossiemouth is a shorter price than State Man in the Champion Hurdle betting yet the latter is odds-on to win the Morgiana Hurdle. It's the Champion Hurdle betting that looks wrong to me, though, as State Man, the dominant force in the division last season with Constitution Hill appearing only once, sets a good standard for Lossiemouth to aim at. She's clearly very talented but this is much her toughest test yet.

BL: A full house for State Man. He's a wonderful two-mile hurdler and would probably have been lauded more than he has been had he not been born into the Constitution Hill era. His defeat to that horse in the 2023 Champion Hurdle is the only blot on his copybook since he fell on his hurdling debut and I simply expect him to be too good for these. Looking at the early odds, the bookies seem to have taken a firm view that Lossiemouth is his biggest danger given she is 11/4 with Brighterdaysahead 5/1. I’m not so sure, so I might look at playing the State Man-Brighterdaysahead straight forecast.

Have you an angle in the Grade 1 John Durkan Chase at Punchestown on Sunday?

MB: Well, it’s one I’ve had to revisit as I was half hoping the often-underestimated Il Etait Temps might be able to spoil the party again but he was taken out earlier in the week and I don’t have a strong punting view on the race in truth. Spillane’s Tower seems highly versatile when it comes to trip and he was a big improver away from the spotlight last term, while Fact To File is obviously the name on everyone’s lips and I’ve admired him since day one. But chances are we could be looking at another showdown between Fastorslow and Galopin Des Champs, who are still only eight themselves don’t forget, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Martin Brassil’s horse had the upper hand again at his beloved Punchestown.

TM: I think Galopin des Champs is a more talented horse than Fastorslow but I'd expect the latter to have his measure again around Punchestown. Galopin des Champs looked rusty when only third to Fastorslow in last season's John Durkan and I can't imagine he'll be much sharper this time around given a slightly interrupted preparation. Fastorslow has come out on top the last three times he's met Galopin des Champs around Punchestown and I'd expect him to be well prepared for a defence of his crown here. Perhaps Fact To File may pose the greater threat from Closutton, but Fastorslow is a top-class operator, especially around here, and looks the one to beat.

BL: If Galopin Des Champs runs I’m sure his odds will fall more in line with his form at different tracks over further and if that’s the case I’ll be looking to take him on. This race was used as a stepping-stone last year and creature of habit Mullins will likely be using it like that once again so I can see the Gold Cup hero getting beat. The problem is, there will likely be quite a few options! We await the final decs with interest, but like Matt and Tony say, Fastorslow looks the obvious one.

Give us one other horse to look out for this weekend?

MB: Henry Daly has had a few winners recently and I’d be pretty keen on the claims of old boy Fortescue if the price was right. He’s 10 now but showed at Aintree last month that he’s back on a workable mark and any rain around at Ascot (14.05) would be in his favour. He won around here on soft ground a couple of seasons ago and is the sort to get into a nice rhythm out in front.

TM: I thought there was a lot to like about how Sans Bruit went through much of the Haldon Gold Cup before understandably fading late on, and, with that run under his belt, I'd expect him to launch a bold bid in Ascot's 17-furlong handicap chase (15.20). He again raced with zest and jumped boldly, just as he had when winning the valuable Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree last season on just his second start over fences for Paul Nicholls, and he could yet do better for his powerful yard.

BL: It’s slightly surprising to see Best Life still over hurdles but after just four starts under Rules Mel Rowley probably wants to get a bit more experience into him before he tackles a fence. Last season, over hurdles, his best run was his last one when he finished second stepped up in trip to three miles for the first time at Haydock and that form looks good in the context of this race. Three miles at a track like Ascot (15.50) off a lowly mark with Nico De Boinville booked all looks positive.

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