Andrew Asquith returns with his all-weather column and has found two bets at Kempton this evening.
All-Weather Angle: Wednesday January 15
2pts win Help Me Rhonda in the 7.00 Kempton at 10/3 (bet365, William Hill)
1pt win Gemmari in the 8.00 Kempton at 9/2 (bet365, William Hill)
In recent years, The Horse Watchers have become one of the shrewdest outfits on the Flat racing scene, and they appear to have found another gem in the shape of Royal Zabeel, who now looks a leading contender for All-Weather Finals Day.
He was purchased out of James Tate’s yard for 30,000 guineas and has shown much improved following a gelding operation and switch to Mick Appleby, finishing runner-up to an in-form sort on his debut over seven furlongs at Newcastle, and looking thoroughly progressive in winning his last two starts.
Royal Zabeel recorded a good timefigure when successful at Southwell, travelling through his race like a well-handicapped horse whose best days remain ahead of him, and he built further on that effort when following up in uncomplicated fashion at Wolverhampton last week.
He was strong in the betting on that occasion and never gave his supporters anything to worry about, always well positioned and asked to go win his race entering the straight. That race wasn’t run at a strong pace, turning into something of a sprint for home, but Royal Zabeel was equipped to handle the challenge, and he remains a horse to keep firmly on side in the coming weeks.
Mick Appleby stated he will have a little break now, but he’s hoping he can win again on his way to Finals Day, and a subsequent 5lb rise in the weights for his latest success more than likely underestimates him – he’s one for your Sporting Life My Stable.
Another horse to be positive about on the all-weather moving forward is the Roger Varian-trained Glen Buck. He seemingly hasn’t been the easiest horse to train – he’s a six-year-old who has had only four career starts – but it says plenty about the ability he possesses that a leading trainer has persevered with him, and connections are starting to reap the rewards now.
He won his first two starts in 2023 and shaped well on his return from a 22-month absence at Wolverhampton in November, leaving the impression he retained all of his ability but just caught further back than ideal.
Glen Buck showed the benefit of that run when resuming winning ways in good style at Southwell recently, taking another step forward and beating another well-treated sort, with that pair pulling clear of the remainder. He travelled well through that race, relishing the step up to 11 furlongs, and having a bit up his sleeve at the line.
Two for Kempton this evening
The handicapper has raised him 5lb for that success which, again looks very lenient given his profile, and the potential he remains with at middle distances. Glen Buck will be another to seriously consider once Finals Day comes around, but in the meantime, he’ll prove hard to beat wherever he turns up next.
It isn’t the best card at Kempton this evening, but there a couple of interesting handicaps at the back end of the card, and I like the claims of HELP ME RHONDA in the Unibet Zero% Mission Fillies Handicap.
She had some fair form when trained in Ireland by Tommy Stack and was picked up by these connections for 11,500 guineas. Help Me Rhonda was a warm order on her debut for James Fanshawe at Wolverhampton in September and, though she ran respectably, she left the impression the drop back to seven furlongs didn’t suit.
She shaped similarly over the same trip at this course on her next start, but she was quite impressive when opening her account over this course and distance when last seen in October.
Help Me Rhonda was given a very confident ride by Kaiya Fraser in a refitted hood, racing towards the rear of the field, and still having quite a bit to do entering the final furlong. She was produced to lead well inside the final furlong and had a bit in hand at the line, clearly relishing the return to a mile and leaving the impression she could rate even higher yet.
That race was run at a good gallop, which clearly suited her run style, so the potential lack of pace is a slight concern here, but there are a couple who like to race prominently so hopefully it isn’t run at a dawdle. However, a subsequent 2lb rise in the weights does look lenient, and she may have even more to offer for this yard.
Fitness shouldn’t be a worry, and she has more upside to most in this field, and her strong-travelling style lends itself well to this track – Kaiya Fraser and James Fanshawe can also boast a 50% strike rate together at Kempton.
In the final race on the card, the Try Unibet’s New Smartview Racecards Handicap, the James Owen-trained Gray Rainbow has been a warm order in the overnight markets, and it isn’t surprising given her profile and pedigree, which strongly points to her progressing a chunk now moving up significantly in trip for her handicap debut.
The same sentiments apply to GEMMARI, though, and his price looks far more attractive also making his handicap debut. He is a half-brother to smart Gibeon, who also showed improved form on entering handicaps for Richard Hannon and, though he has been well beaten in three starts so far, he has seemingly been brought along with handicaps in mind.
Gemmari ran his best race to date on his qualifying run over 11 furlongs at this course last month, starting at 200/1 and beaten over 11 lengths, but that race was chock-full of well-bred types from top yards who had already shown plenty and, barring Gray Rainbow, this field is depleted of such types.
His other two runs, which came over a mile, also contained plenty of progressive types, and on the whole he has been mixing it in better races than Gray Rainbow has. An opening mark of 60 should be workable based on his latest performance, while he is also bred to be much better than this lowly mark.
This extra furlong is also sure to suit Gemmari, and Richard Hannon continues in good form, saddling winners at 20/1 and 7/1, respectively, in the last few days.
Preview posted at 0935 GMT on 15/01/2025
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