Alex Hammond Racing Blog: Melbourne Cup preview and tips

The Lexus Melbourne Cup takes place in the early hours of Tuesday morning.

The great stayers' Group 1 handicap has always been dubbed “the race that stops a nation”, but now it’s probably more appropriate to call it the race that stops nations (taking part).

Spanish Mission is one of just two European raiders for this year’s contest, but if he’s to line up for Andrew Balding he’ll have to pass a late fitness test, on top of the stringent tests that have already taken place to satisfy the Aussie stewards.

It transpires that he has some swelling on his right front leg and we’ll know his fate on Saturday morning. Both Balding and the team overseeing his preparation in Australia are confident there will be no problems with the 11th hour checks, so let’s hope their confidence isn’t misplaced.

Mention the name Joseph O’Brien and the Aussie racing community probably break out in a cold sweat.

He recently sent out the winner of the Cox Plate and has already got his name on the Melbourne Cup trophy twice. He’s back for more with last year’s winner Twilight Payment having jumped through the considerable hoops required to get the all-clear to take his place on the starting grid.

It will be harder for Twilight Payment off his revised rating, but he comes into the race having followed a similar route to last year and you’d be foolish to overlook one of Joseph’s.

He’s a 10/1 shot with Sky Bet to repeat the feat and do something that hasn’t been achieved since the legendary Makybe Diva won back-to-back runnings of the race in 2004 before going on to win an astonishing third in 2005.

There have been numerous winners of this contest that have tried and failed to follow up, so I’m happy to overlook him this time round in his bid to become the sixth multiple winner in its long history.

If SPANISH MISSION does take his place in the line-up, he should acquit himself well. The ding dong battle he had with Stradivarius in the Lonsdale Cup at York is still fresh in the memory and despite being beaten, he did little wrong.

He looks exactly the hardy type you need for this challenge. He’s 8/1 with Sky Bet. Recent history would dictate that a horse lower down the weights is where we should be looking though, so with that in mind I’m reluctantly going to pass him over and for the same reason am also going to overlook hot favourite Incentivise (6/4) who is bidding to become the shortest priced winner of the race since the mighty Phar Lap in 1930!

He’s not quite in his league, but he has won nine races in succession and has improved at a rate of knots. He could be the best horse in the race, but 6/4?! Not for me.

Grand Promenade has the type of weight that throws him into calculations. Kerrin McEvoy is a name we know well in the UK after his successful spells riding here in the 2000s and he can do the light weight required to ride this horse. He goes well at the track and represents the powerful yard of Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. If you like the sound of him, he’s a 12/1 shot at the time of writing.

It’s impossible to leave Verry Elleegant out of this chat as she’s an outstanding mare. Whether she can defy her burden remains to be seen, but she stayed on from way back last year and wasn’t disgraced. Rain would aid her chance and she’s a tempting 16/1 with Sky Bet, so maybe one to consider to run into a place.

At an even bigger price (33/1) it could be folly to leave THE CHOSEN ONE off your shortlist. He was fourth in the race 12 months ago and has a similar weight this year. He ran well two starts back and there is a history of horses coming back year on year to this race and picking up place prize money.

The first Tuesday in November was the only day I didn’t mind my 1.30am alarm clock for Sky Sports News. I would arrive in Sky Studios in time to be settled at a desk with a cup of tea in time to watch the race live and if the team weren’t awake when I arrived, they were at 4am!

I’m not long back from a dog walk and all I can say is that it’s a good job skin is waterproof!

I had to tip water out of my hardy walking boots and my dogs had the indignity of wearing their smart drying coats when they got back home.

Yes, I know they have a very efficient coats of their own, but I value my soft furnishings. It can only mean one thing; the clocks go back over the weekend, and we are well into the national hunt season.

This weekend promises to be a real cracker. I’m off to Ascot for their first national hunt fixture of the season, and that’s where I’m going to focus my attention because the card looks superb. Winners may not be easy to find, but Anthony Honeyball will be hoping to repeat his three wins on the card from last year’s meeting.

It’s quite some achievement that he is running all three horses again 12 months on. Kid Commando (1.35), Sully D’Oc (2.45) and wonderful 13-year-old Regal Encore (3.20) are the aforementioned trio, and all have claims once again.

The opening novices’ limited handicap chase looks hard, and I’ll be keen to see who looks fit and ready in the paddock before nailing my colours to the mast. NASSALAM is worth a close look though with the 4-year-old weight allowance he gets in this 2m 3f contest for trainer Gary Moore.

The listed handicap hurdle is race two, and there are some lovely horses declared to run including Betfair Hurdle winner Soaring Glory. I think I’m going to be brave here though and side with MEGAN, who was desperately unlucky to fall when travelling well at Chepstow three weeks ago and she could be a decent price.

Sully D’Oc is going for his second successive win at this meeting in the 2.45, the listed handicap chase. It’s an uber competitive race with his old rival, Editeur Du Gite, taking him on again and the winner of this race in 2020, Amoola Gold in opposition.

Then the feature Bateaux London Gold Cup, a Grade 3 handicap chase over 3 miles. What a race this promises to be.

Vinndication is top weight and the 2019 winner of this race. Last year’s winner Regal Encore may be a teenager now, but don’t you dare overlook him at his favourite racecourse.

There are some up and coming horses in the field too, including Johnbb, One More Fleurie, Sojourn and Jerrysback possibly just about fits that profile having just had 12 starts at the age of 9.

Larry was desperately unlucky to unseat his rider at Fakenham on his return two weeks ago when hampered by an oncoming loose horse and he sneaks in right at the bottom of the weights for Gary Moore who has won the race twice in recent years.

At 12/1 with Sky Bet I’m happy to have LARRY as an each-way selection in a red-hot contest.

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