Sky Sports Racing's Alex Hammond thinks conditions will be a deciding factor in Saturday's Randox Grand National and she has whittled her shortlist down to six.
We all have our own memories of various Grand Nationals over the years. With the wet spring we’re experiencing, it brought back memories of Red Marauder’s National back in 2001. The race had a vastly different look to the one we’ll see this year, even if the ground is testing. 40 horses started that race, this year there will be a maximum of 34. Four horses finished the race, with two of those unseating their riders and subsequently being remounted, something that is now against the rules.
That was a dramatic and incident packed race and thankfully there have been many positive changes to the most famous race in the world since, and hopefully those changes will ensure its longevity. Conditions are unlikely to be as attritional as they were that day, as it was torrential on the morning of the race 23 years ago. It will be important for the successful horse in 2024 to handle testing ground though.
At the time of writing (on Tuesday) the ground is being described as soft, heavy in places on all three courses at Aintree. There’s plenty of rain in the forecast too, so I can’t see it drying out. With that in mind, let’s try and find a selection or two.
There are always exceptions to every rule and I’m sure there will be horses that haven’t gone on heavy ground in the past that will slosh beautifully through the mud on Saturday. However, I’ll be focusing purely on horses that are proven on the surface.
Let’s work down the protagonists.
Dual Grand National winning trainer Lucinda Russell saddles last year’s winner Corach Rambler once again and the ten year old will sign, seal, and deliver his place in the history books if he wins a second National. He won his novice hurdle on heavy ground but I’m not sure he wants conditions this testing. He ran a blinder in the Gold Cup last time out however and is slightly well in at the weights on Saturday as a result of his Cheltenham efforts. 5/1 with Sky Bet.
I Am Maximus is an exciting staying chaser for Willie Mullins and comes here having won the Bobbyjo Chase, which is a recognised trial for Aintree and is named after the 1999 Grand National winner. He won the Irish National last season on just his fifth start over fences. He’s the sort of classy horse that you wouldn’t have seen in this race historically and could be a Gold Cup contender next season. The weights for the National were published before that most recent win, and as a result the handicapper would have given him a further 6lbs to carry if he had been able to reassess his weight allocation subsequently. 7/1 with Sky Bet.
Meetingofthewaters is another from the Mullins squad. I’m not certain ground conditions will be ideal. He’s a progressive young chaser though and ran an excellent race in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham festival. He has a good racing weight. 8/1 with Sky Bet.
Vanillier was a well beaten second to I Am Maximus in the Bobbyjo Chase on his most recent start. However, he was runner-up in last year’s Grand National having had the same preparation. Gavin Cromwell will be hoping for a repeat performance. 9/1 with Sky Bet.
It would be wonderful to see Kitty’s Light win the race for Christian Williams and his family, given what they are going through owing to daughter Betsy’s leukaemia diagnosis which was given around this time last year. The horse is a dab hand in these staying chases having won the Eider, Scottish National and Bet365 Gold Cup. I don’t think he’s going to like the ground though. 11/1 with Sky Bet.
Willie Mullins also trains Mr Incredible. He qualified for the race with an excellent second in the Midlands National last month. He conceded loads of weight to his rivals that day in very testing conditions. He was unlucky in the National last year when his saddle slipped at the Canal Turn second time round and whilst he’s quirky, he’s talented and he’s at the top of my shortlist. Let’s hope he gets out the right side of bed on Saturday morning! 12/1 with Sky Bet.
Panda Boy represents trainer Martin Brassil. Whilst he has the form to run a big race his trainer has said in the past that he’s a good ground horse, and he certainly isn’t going to get that on Saturday. 12/1 with Sky Bet.
Mahler Mission ran a superb race to finish second in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury in early December for trainer John McConnell and he still looks to be improving over fences. He should cope with conditions and is another leading contender. 14/1 with Sky Bet.
Limerick Lace is another from the Gavin Cromwell yard. This mare is talented but can be a handful according to her trainer. You need that fighting spirit in a mare and she comes here having won the Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham festival. She’s well in at the weights, but a mare hasn’t won the race for decades. I like her, but she’s yet to race beyond three miles and that would be my reservation about her claims. 16/1 with Sky Bet.
Now the Gary Moore trained Nassalam will love conditions. He hacked up in the Welsh National in heavy ground, which dispelled any stamina doubts on his first attempt at a marathon trip. His rider Caoilin Quinn is becoming something of a national specialist and has made it back from a broken collarbone in the nick of time. He’ll have his first rides back since his injury at Taunton on Thursday. 18/1 with Sky Bet.
The Henry de Bromhead trained Minella Indo is into the veteran stage of his career at 11, but the 2021 Gold Cup winner is now racing off a mark of just 159. 20/1 with Sky Bet.
The Emmet Mullins trained 2022 National winner Noble Yeats has a much tougher task than he did two years ago with 11 stone 11 lbs to carry. He was fourth last year off a 1lb higher mark. More recently he’s been in good form over hurdles. 20/1 with Sky Bet.
Latenightpass has a slightly more unusual profile and a win for him would be a wonderful story for the husband and wife team of trainer Tom Ellis and jockey Gina Andrews. We know the fences suit this lad because he was a winner over them in the 2022 Foxhunters’ at this meeting. He won a cross country race at Cheltenham in December when racing for Dan Skelton, but Ellis has trained him for numerous point-to-point victories and that Foxhunters’ win, and it would be incredible for them to win the big one. 33/1 with Sky Bet.
It would be folly not to mention Gordon Elliott in the same breath as the Grand National as he has won the race three times, first with Silver Birch in 2007 and twice with Tiger Roll. The shortest priced of his multiple entries is Delta Work (25/1) and he also has Galvin, Chemical Energy, Coko Beach, top weight Conflated, Farouk D’Alene, The Goffer, Minella Crooner, Where It All Began, Fakir D’Alene, Frontal Assault, Run Wild Fred and Tullybeg entered, so safety in numbers! They aren’t all heading to the great race though, so watch out for those declarations on Thursday.
His Delta Work has been plying his trade in cross country races for a couple of years now which does him a disservice as he was a proper grade 1 horse when switching to that discipline. He wasn’t given the credit he deserved when winning the Cheltenham festival cross country race in March 2022 because he beat Tiger Roll on his last run before retirement. He was treated like the man who shot Bambi’s mother!
Whether he still has that back class remains to be seen at the age of eleven. He’s had a couple of goes at this race in the past. He was third to Noble Yeats a couple of years ago, and then unseated at the 21st fence last year. He will handle the ground and will wear blinkers on Saturday, he has in the past worn a hood or cheekpieces. He looks to hold the best chance for the trainer with a rich history in the race.
If Dan Skelton were to win that would seal a first Champion Trainer title for him. He runs the mare, Galia Des Liteaux. She enjoyed the stamina test of the Classic Chase at Warwick when finishing runner-up, and there could be more to come over marathon trips. She’s also won on heavy ground before. 25/1 with Sky Bet.
Sky Bet are paying 6 places, so let’s whittle it down to my top 6:
- Mr Incredible
- Mahler Mission
- Limerick Lace
- Delta Work
- Nassalam
- Latenightpass
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