Andrew Asquith has looked through the main action on Boxing Day and has found three bets at Aintree and Kempton.
Andrew Asquith tips: Thursday December 26
1pt win Fire Flyer in the 12:45 Kempton at 7/1 (General)
1pt win Country Mile in the 1.05 Aintree at 6/1 (Bet365, Betfair, 888)
1pt win Banbridge in the 2.30 Kempton at 5/1 (Betvictor, Ladbrokes, Unibet, Coral)
The opening race at Kempton on Boxing Day, the Ladbrokes Best Odds Guaranteed On Racing Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase, looks a competitive event and it is Range and FIRE FLYER who take my eye.
The former impressed me at Chepstow last time, jumping well at the head of affairs and leaving the impression there’s even more to come, but I was surprised to see Fire Flyer available at 7/1 given he also showed plenty to work on when runner-up on his chase debut at Exeter.
He was a two-timer winner in novice hurdles last season, but his form curtailed off afterwards, unable to land a blow in a couple of competitive handicaps at Sandown, but he reportedly made a respiratory noise in the second of those races.
Fire Flyer underwent a breathing operation in the off-season and, though he failed to complete on his return at Cheltenham, it was through no fault of his own, a faller in front of him causing severe interference and he was pulled up soon after.
He had travelled well up to that point, though, leaving the impression he was back in top form, and he ran well quickly switched to fences, beaten only by a prolific winner who made most of the running. Fire Flyer jumped well throughout and maybe still need the race, while also leaving the impression he’d be well suited by moving back up to this longer trip.
He is very much a chaser on looks, the type to progress through the ranks in this sphere, and he looks potentially well handicapped having been left on the same mark. The return to better ground will be no problem, either, and I think he’s a little overpriced on the back of his Exeter run which produced a good timefigure.
The King George VI Chase looks a very competitive renewal and should be a real spectacle. I have long been a fan of Il Est Francais since his rout in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at this meeting 12 months ago, but he has blotted his copybook on a couple of occasions since which tempers my enthusiasm slightly at his current price.
You have to respect the supplemented Spillane’s Tower, too, following his fantastic effort in the John Durkan when beaten only by the very exciting Fact To File. He should appreciate the return to three miles and looks a worthy favourite to me.
However, I keep going back to BANBRIDGE and I feel there is enough juice in his price to make him a selection. He beat high-class Pic d’Orhy – albeit in receipt of 3lb – in the Silviniaco Conti Chase over two and a half miles at this course on his return last season, but the ground went against him in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival on his next start.
Banbridge proved himself a top-class chaser when conditions are right when prevailing by a neck from Captain Guiness in a Grade 1 chase over two miles at the Punchestown Festival afterwards, doing all of his best work at the finish and it was his touch of class that saw him cross the line in front.
He looked rusty on his return from seven months off kept to two miles at Navan in November, but he was in the process of running a career-best effort in the Hilly Way Chase at Cork last time, giving the returning Energumene 10lb but still holding every chance approaching the last where he unseated his rider – he traded at 1.66 in-running.
For him to run to such a high level over what is arguably a trip short of his optimum, while attempting to concede a lump of weight to a multiple Grade 1 winner, suggests there is better still to come from Banbridge and, interestingly, the cheekpieces he wore when successful at Punchestown now return, while the presence of Paul Townend in the saddle is no bad thing.
Banbridge’s pedigree strongly suggests he’ll stay three miles – he’s the first foal out of a pointer who is a half-sister to useful chaser Major Malarkey (stayed marathon trips) and fairly useful chaser Twin Plan (stayed three miles). He has plenty of winning form at two and a half miles, and has also looked well worth a try at three miles over fences. The weather forecast is mild and dry which will be music to the ears of his trainer Joseph O’Brien and if he builds on his latest effort stepped up significantly in trip like I'm expecting, he will be a force to be reckoned with.
There is plenty of potential on show in this year’s Formby Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree and it is no surprise to see that the unbeaten Potters Charm has been installed as a short-price favourite.
He finished runner-up on his sole start in points and looked a fine prospect when making a winning start under Rules in a bumper at Ffos Las on his sole start last season, running to a high level for a debutant.
Potters Charm hasn’t put a foot wrong over hurdles so far, either, winning all three of his starts to date, and he was seriously impressive in the Grade 2 Hyde Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham last time, too. All of his starts over hurdles have come at around two and a half miles, though, and while he clearly isn’t short of pace, whether the drop to and extended two miles at a sharp track like Aintree on ground which won’t be so testing will suit him as well remains to be seen.
With that in mind, I’m looking to take him on at the prices and the horse I want to do so with is the Dan Skelton-trained COUNTRY MILE, who is also improving in leaps and bounds.
He is another recruit from points who looked above average when making a winning start under Rules in a bumper at Huntingdon on his sole start last season and also made a promising start over hurdles when making a successful return at Ayr in October, overcoming clear signs of inexperience to win with quite a bit more in hand than the official margin suggests.
Country Mile was beaten by the reopposing Roadlesstravelled in a Grade 2 at Haydock on his next start, but he jumped nowhere near good enough on that occasion, a blunder at the second-last doing him no favours but still holding every chance approaching the final flight only to make another bad mistake which ended his challenge.
However, Country Mile had clearly learnt plenty for that experience, as he was more fluent at his hurdles at Cheltenham last time, and it was hard not to be impressed by the manner of that victory. There is still room for improvement in his jumping, but he couldn’t be in better hands in that regard, and his strong-travelling style of racing will be tailormade for Aintree.
Country Mile is a horse who possesses a lot of natural speed and he isn’t near the ceiling of his ability in my opinion, likely to take another significant step forward now, and he also should get a good pace to aim at with the likes of Celtic Dino and Roadlesstravelled in the field, while I’d also expect Potters Charm to be ridden more prominently down in trip, too.
Preview posted at 1505 GMT on 23/12/2024
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