2023 Flat season tips: Antepost preview & recommended bets for the 1000 Guineas, Derby and Oaks

Antepost Flat: The Classics, 2023

2pts win Meditate in the 1000 Guineas at 7/1 (Betfred, Betway, Coral and Ladbrokes)

1pt win Silver Knott in the Derby at 25/1 (Betfred, BetUK)

1pt win Bridestones in the Oaks at 33/1 (bet365, BetVictor, Unibet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Is there a bet to be had Guineas weekend?

If there’s value in the Qipco 2000 Guineas betting it’s probably Little Big Bear at 5/1.

Aidan O’Brien’s son of No Nay Never was the season’s outstanding juvenile and he would be a couple of points shorter but for the setback that ruled him out of action the backend of his two-year-old campaign.

That’s obviously a bit of a concern, but such was his brilliance in the Phoenix Stakes I’m not in any rush to find a bet against him and the more interesting race to take a view on in advance is the fillies’ equivalent the following day.

Dermot Weld’s Tahiyra heads the market here at a best of 4/1, but her classy Moyglare performance came on soft ground and she’ll likely encounter very different conditions if she rocks up at Newmarket on the first Sunday in May.

That in itself is a big if, with Weld having had just one 1000 Guineas runner at Newmarket in the last 25 years - Rasmeyaa, who finished 14th in 2013 – so the daughter of Siyouni is worth taking on.

Contrast Weld’s Guineas record with O’Brien, who has won the 1000 Guineas seven times, and taking the 7/1 about his MEDITATE looks a bit of a no-brainer.

Also by No Nay Never, she racked up loads of experience as a juvenile and didn’t put a hoof wrong, winning five times and finishing second to two good fillies in Group One races on her only two defeats.

As well as the Tahiyra reverse she was beaten by a slightly sharper type in Lezoo in the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket over six, but she ran a cracker, showing she handled the track well, and serious improvement on that run can be expected when she tackles a mile in the Guineas.

Indeed, we’ve already seen her over a mile in the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf at the Breeders’ Cup, where she totally outclassed them without being shown the whip, and she looks the ideal type for the first fillies’ Classic of the year.

The 7/1 available is well worth snapping up.

What about a long-range Derby bet?

It was another brilliant season for Charlie Appleby with a first 2000 Guineas amongst his extensive highlights reel but if there’s one thing he didn’t get right, it was his Derby team.

Going into the trials it looked as though the Moulton Paddocks outfit had an ultra-strong Derby hand but they came out of York, Lingfield and Chester scratching around for alternatives and I reckon he might do things differently in 2023.

At the moment SILVER KNOTT isn’t really on Appleby’s Derby radar with the Guineas his likely spring target, but you could have said the same about Masar in 2018 and the similarities are striking.

Campaigned at two like he was the second incarnation of Appleby’s first Derby winner, Silver Knott won the Solario Stakes at Sandown, just like Masar, and then ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, just like Masar, to close his first season in training.

Silver Knott got much closer to Breeders’ Cup glory than Masar ever did, going down by just a nose in a thriller, but he has set himself up beautifully for a Classic campaign at three.

By Lope De Vega, whose progeny are 12/60 at 20% at Epsom, he’s out of God Given, a Group One-winning half-sister to 2016 Coronation Cup winner, Postponed.

Epsom is somewhat coursing through his veins then, so a running-on, close-up placed effort in the Guineas – just like Masar – could turn Appleby's head towards the Derby and he’s worth getting on side at 25/1.

Which filly or fillies are on the Oaks radar?

Delightful, full-sister to Oaks winners Minding and Tuesday, is so tempting. The 100/1 available with bet365 looks crazy big, while she’s 40s and 66s in a few places, with the general 25/1 and 33/1 looking more like what she should be.

Hoovering up anything north of 33/1 doesn’t look a bad policy, as her juvenile form is rock solid and serious improvement is expected when she moves up in distance at three.

At Gowran on her second start she was narrowly beaten by two subsequent Group 3 winners in Speirling Beag and Lumiere Rock, while fillies she beat in maidens like Sounds Of Heaven and Drummin Life came out and won their own maidens subsequently.

Her nursery win at Leopardstown was her most impressive performance, and though it came off a relatively lowly mark of 86 it would be no surprise if she followed in the hoofprints of her sisters and made up into a Group One filly up in trip at three.

I’ll be backing her for Epsom at 50s and above but those sort of odds will probably have a short enough shelf-life so the recommended Oaks bet at a price more readily available is BRIDESTONES at 33/1.

Another one running in the Godolphin blue, this Teofilo filly is trained by John & Thady Gosden and she’s beautifully bred being out of the Group One Fillies’ Mile winner White Moonstone.

A half-sister to 1m4f winner Sea Stone, she’s bred for a trip, as well, and she made a striking impression on her sole start at two when running away with a good Yarmouth maiden.

The quicker of the two divisions on the day, Bridestones quickened clear up the stands’ rail impressively under William Buick and it’s a race Gosden has used to introduce a good filly on more than one occasion in the past.

In 2018 he had a one-two in one of the divisions with Mehdaayih beating Fanny Logan, two fillies who struck at Group Two level the following season.

In 2019 Frankly Darling ran in the same Yarmouth race and finished second before winning the Ribblesdale in Covid-hit 2020, a win that saw her go off 7/4 for the July Oaks where she was third to Love.

And in the last couple of years Gosden has started off Thunder Drum and Shaara in the same Yarmouth race, fillies who won at Listed and Group Three level subsequently.

It’s clearly a race he uses to start off some of his nicer fillies and with the well-bred Bridestones winning it so impressively last October a chance is taken on her for the Oaks at 33/1.

Published at 1030 GMT on 22/12/22

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