2022 Flat season tips: Antepost preview & recommended bets for the Qipco 2000 Guineas and Oaks
Ben Linfoot picks out two selections and highlights other top prospects in his antepost preview of the 2022 Classics including the 2000 Guineas and Oaks.
Antepost Flat: The Classics, 2022
1pt win Masekela in Qipco 2000 Guineas at 33/1 (General)
1pt win Tuesday in Cazoo Oaks at 33/1 (General)
Is there a bet for Guineas weekend at Newmarket?
There are no arguments with the top three in the betting for the Qipco 2000 Guineas.
Native Trail, Luxembourg and Coroebus are the trio dominating the Guineas market and all three advertised their Classic credentials as juveniles. Charlie Appleby’s Native Trail has the best form but for me stablemate Coroebus is the most exciting. He could have too much raw speed for them at Newmarket.
At 5/1, 6/1 in a place, Coroebus appeals the most of the big three, but over four months out from the first Classic of the season I want more bang for my buck and after revisiting last season’s top juvenile events in a video replay frenzy it strikes me that MASEKELA is overpriced at 33/1 (you might get 40s in a place).
Andrew Balding’s horse has a couple of blips on his two-year-old dance card, which explains his big price, but both are easily forgiven and if you take them out of the equation you have a horse that should be much shorter in the Guineas betting.
Oisin Murphy reported that he didn’t like the tacky ground when he was beaten in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot, while he stressed all season long that he was a horse for next year and his Royal Lodge reverse behind Royal Patronage and Coroebus smacked of one run too many.
His pedigree certainly points to him improving at three. His sire, El Kabeir, was a dual-graded winner in the States as a three-year-old, his dam, Lady’s Purse, won her first three starts at three, including at Listed and Group 3 level, and his half-sister, Asoof, made her debut at three and was a three-time winner that season.
So the highlights of his juvenile showreel should be viewed through that perspective and his two runs in the height of summer on Newmarket’s July Course and at Newbury were high class.
A short head second to Native Trail in the bet365 Superlative Stakes over seven furlongs, he travelled very well on the fast ground and responded impressively to Murphy’s urgings as he tried to wear down the Godolphin horse. He almost got there and would’ve won in another 50 yards.
Then in the Listed Denford Stakes at Newbury he showed great tenacity to get the better of the bob with Bayside Boy, form that was emphatically franked in subsequent starts by the runner-up – as was, of course, the Superlative form, by brilliant dual-Group 1 winner Native Trail.
Obviously the Godolphin horse improved from his Superlative win, but with another winter under his belt it is expected that the physically big Masekela will continue on his own upward curve in the spring.
He might want 10 furlongs as the season progresses, but a Guineas tilt looks likely at the beginning of his campaign and his trainer, on the back of his best ever season, has recent previous in the Newmarket Classic having won it with Kameko in 2020.
What about a wild slingshot at Epsom six months in advance?
There looked to be a changing of the guard last year when it came to the Classic-makers with Frankel landing three British and Irish Classics thanks to his sons Adayar and Hurricane Lane.
The go-to stallion for many a year has been Frankel’s own sire, Galileo, a breeding phenomenon who passed away in 2021 at the age of 23, but his legacy may well have one or two final chapters yet.
He had 44 juveniles run in Britain and Ireland this year, winning with nine of them, but it’s one of the maidens that catches the eye in the Cazoo Oaks with Aidan O'Brien's TUESDAY available at 33/1.
As you would expect, she’s beautifully bred being out of the dual-Group 1 winner Lillie Langtry, making her a full-sister to Minding, the seven-time Group 1 heroine who landed the Oaks at Epsom in 2016. She’s also a full-sister to Empress Josephine, Galileo’s only British or Irish Classic winner in 2021.
Minding ran five times at two, but Empress Josephine wasn’t seen at all as a juvenile – so it’s no real concern that Tuesday was seen just the once at two when she was a highly-encouraging short head second to subsequent Group 1 winner, Discoveries.
That was in a seven-furlong maiden at the Curragh on June 25 where she shaped tremendously well, despite running green, and given what Discoveries achieved afterwards in winning the Moyglare, Tuesday has to be rated a top prospect.
She’s 25/1 for the 1000 Guineas, but given she only raced once at two I’d rather back her at a slightly bigger price for the Oaks in June and hope that she lays down a marker for the race with her displays in the spring.
Any dark horses on the Classic radar?
Sea The Stars has produced some high-class fillies over the years including Taghrooda, Sea Of Class and Star Catcher, and I’ll be following his daughter ECLAT DE LUMIERE with interest next season.
Dermot Weld’s Moyglare Stud-owned filly impressed when winning a seven-furlong Curragh maiden on her only start at two and she has a lovely blend of speed and stamina in her pedigree.
She’s not quoted in the Guineas or Oaks betting at the time of writing, but she has the potential to be very good and she could be one for a Classic trial in the spring.
Ed Walker’s KAWIDA is quoted for the 1000 Guineas (66/1) and the Cazoo Oaks (40/1) and I really liked the attitude she displayed when getting up late to win the Listed Montrose Fillies’ Stakes on her final start at two.
By Sir Percy, she’s bred for middle distances and she could well take a significant step forward when going up in trip at three. She’ll have to improve significantly to figure in a Classic and I’m not really tempted by those quoted prices at this stage, but she’s another to keep an eye on in Classic trial season.
Finally, ANTARAH could be the latest star from Clarehaven to begin their career at Newcastle.
John Gosden introduced Enable and Without Parole to win on debut on the Newcastle Tapeta and Stradivarius won his maiden there, too, so he clearly uses the surface as an early learning curve for some of his best prospects.
Antarah, a son of Sea The Stars, looked just that when he glided to an effortless success in a mile novice stakes on his racecourse debut on October 25, quickening clear impressively after travelling well throughout.
He’s 40/1 for the Derby going into the winter and he’s another one on the radar no matter what path he takes in the next campaign.
Published at 0800 GMT on 21/12/21
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