2000 Guineas tips: Horse by horse guide and Value Bet shortlist for Matt Brocklebank

Horse-by-horse guide

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AUGUSTE RODIN (Aidan O’Brien)

Was cut to a best-price 5/1 for Guineas glory after ending his two-year-old season with victory in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster, a race he very nearly missed on account of the heavy rain and resulting ground. In the end his stamina evidently came to the fore and he was able to stamp his class on the race in spite of the conditions so he could be a much happier horse on spring ground, which is a rather ominous sign for his potential rivals at Newmarket. One thing you could argue when weighing up his current odds around the 2/1 mark is that he’s surely going to be better over middle-distances as the year goes on, it’s just a question of whether anything else in here has the requisite class and a touch more speed to expose any chinks in the armour he may or may not have.

CHALDEAN (Andrew Balding)

Won four races at two after suffering defeat on debut, culminating in the Dewhurst over 7f here in October. No doubting that level of juvenile form, which has already been working out well this spring, but can’t help but feel unseating Frankie soon after the start in his Greenham prep was a bit of a nightmare way to begin the Classic campaign. Pretty certain to stay the mile and he’s versatile ground-wise, but now looks a slightly riskier proposition than if he’d been coming here first time back.

CHARYN (Roger Varian)

Looked a budding sprinter last season and ended on a high with G2 victory in France, while he’s put his name in the Guineas hat after a staying-on second in the Greenham Stakes. That race lost its lustre with the unfortunate incident involving Chaldean soon after the gates opened, though, and the winner isn’t even running here. Still think he might be one for top 6f three-year-old races as he matures and strengthens.

DUBAI MILE (Charlie Johnston)

Made five racecourse appearances at two and improved with every single outing, just getting done for a change of gear in a slowly-run Royal Lodge before resuming winning ways in French Group 1. That came over 10 furlongs on heavy ground, though, so you’d imagine he might come up a bit short on natural pace dropping back in trip for a Guineas. His best chance of winning this might be to go out and make it a proper test from the front but connections will be mindful of his Dante/Derby potential so a staying-on effort in behind the first four or five looks a bit more likely.

FLIGHT PLAN (Karl Burke)

One of three left in the mix by his trainer and there's no escaping the fact he's a nice three-year-old prospect on the back of a promising comeback run in an often warm 1m Listed race at Newcastle last month (Burradon Stakes). That level of form is realistically a world away from what's required to win a Guineas, though, and he may need a bit more time before he can be considered a genuine top-level contender.

GALERON (Charles Hills)

Stable already going very well this spring which can't be a bad thing but he was only third in the aforementioned Burradon Stakes at Newcastle, having won a Goodwood maiden and big 7f sales race at the Curragh in September. Will be placed to advantage at some stage soon, no doubt, but today is not that day.

HI ROYAL (Kevin Ryan)

Northern raider who looks likely to be biting off more than he can chew if thrown into the deep end here following a perfectly respectable comeback run when fourth over 7f here last month. Rated just 91, he'll surely be given a handicap option at some stage soon and could be a real danger in that sort of company. Doesn't make the Guineas shortlist, though.

HOLLOWAY BOY (Karl Burke)

Another for Burke. Won the Chesham Stakes on his debut at 40/1 at Royal Ascot but proved that no flash in the pan with three subsequent placed efforts in Group company (including a second of four runners and third of sixth so arguably pushing the definition of 'placed'). Doesn't have masses of ground to make up on the likes of Chaldean, Silver Knott and Auguste Rodin on the pick of his form but definitely has something to find and chances are he'll be found wanting again at this kind of level.

INDESTRUCTIBLE (Karl Burke)

Looked more than useful during his four-start juvenile season without appearing a star in the making. Change of stable and winter breathing operation clearly had a positive effect and he was evidently pretty straight too, having attracted support and made most of the running to win the Craven over this course and distance. Chances are he beat middle-distances horses there but his well-being is proven, he could step forward a touch more and must have a chance of placing.

LITTLE BIG BEAR (Aidan O’Brien)

Well worth stressing he's the Timeform top-rated in here with a figure of 138p and it's not hard to see why given he went 4-5 during a very productive juvenile campaign and signed off with a career-best effort when winning the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh. Unlike stablemate Auguste Rodin, he's not one who will be being trained for a crack at the Derby but there's enough in his pedigree to suggest he'll stay the mile well enough and he's unquestionably got the talent if ready to roll after the winter break.

NOBLE STYLE (Charlie Appleby)

Always appeared to be high up in the Appleby pecking order in terms of promising two-year-olds last season but possibly not the easiest to train as he missed a spell after his debut win at Ascot (form worked out well) before suffering from colic which scuppered his Dewhurst participation later in the season. Has won all three starts when he has made the track, including the Gimcrack at York, but the public exercise prior to racing at the recent Craven meeting didn’t look the smoothest piece of work you’d ever seen, and he’s far from guaranteed to love the step up from 6f to a mile first time out as a three-year-old. Too many question marks for me.

ROYAL SCOTSMAN (Paul & Oliver Cole)

Made quite striking progress last summer, winning the Richmond in a record time, before ending his juvenile campaign on a low note at York, after which he’s said to have scoped dirty. Connections kept full faith and he very nearly repaid them with victory in the Dewhurst, going down by a head to Chaldean after coming from nearer the back of the field and finishing with a flourish. That bodes very well he’ll handle the move up to a mile this time around.

SAKHEER (Roger Varian)

Beaten narrowly when hot favourite on his Windsor debut in August before dwarfing 11 rivals en route to a ready six-length success in a Haydock novice the following month. Signed off for 2022 with another commanding win in the Group 2 Mill Reef at Newbury so big things are expected from him this season. Whether that’s over this mile trip is another matter entirely, though, as he’s looked a natural sprinter from the outset and it's no surprise that he's already disputing favouritism for the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot in some quarters.

SILVER KNOTT (Charlie Appleby)

Twice came unstuck at the hands of Chaldean during his juvenile campaign but first time up can be excused (ran encouragingly in fourth) and the ground was really quite testing when flopping as favourite in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster. Kicked on from that Town Moor effort to win the Autumn Stakes over this course and distance before being nosed out of it after a troubled passage in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland. Hadn’t initially been part of the Appleby raiding party plans by all accounts but he’s obviously a no-nonsense professional and his public gallop at the Craven meeting lived up to that billing which will clearly stand him in good stead this weekend. He’s only a few pounds below the pick of them on ratings and you’d have to respect him if the ground came up decent (showers in the forecast). Will stay 10 furlongs, possibly not the Derby trip.

Value Bet shortlist

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Auguste Rodin didn't look back after getting a little outpaced on good ground on his 7f debut at the Curragh last June but that does just leave the impression that first time back at three might be the best time to take him on, particularly as he's being trained with the Derby firmly in mind. As for his potential opposition, here are the three making my shortlist as things stand...

Little Big Bear

Was favourite for Guineas after his Phoenix romp and looks a more natural fit for this sort of test than stablemate Auguste Rodin, though the latter is obviously a class act too and he could get away with being more of a middle-distance prospect than Little Big Bear. But of the pair, it'd be the son of No Nay Never I'll fear most if ultimately choosing to take on the might of Ballydoyle.

Royal Scotsman

The fact Chaldean is three points shorter in the betting than Royal Scotsman doesn't quite sit right with me given their proximity to one another at the end of the Dewhurst here in early-October. The two of them look milers through-and-through and, after Chaldean's mishap in the Greenham recently, I'd much rather be looking to get Royal Scotsman on side around the 8/1 mark.

Silver Knott

I couldn't really see defeat for Silver Knott at the Breeders' Cup so it was obviously slightly disappointing that he was eventually nosed out of it having very briefly hit the front following a troubled passage from the two-furlong marker at Keeneland. I can excuse his slightly heavier defeats as a juvenile and fully expect him to give Chaldean a lot more to think about than he did in the two races in which they met last term, particularly if the ground is anywhere near good. His recent workout at the Craven meeting was precisely what you'd look for, which can't be said of Noble Style's which was seemingly a fairly laboured effort.

Updated at 1005 BST on 04/05/23

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