2000 Guineas tips: Horse-by-horse guide to first Classic of the season at Newmarket
Classic season kicks off on Saturday with the QIPCO 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and Matt Brocklebank provides a full and comprehensive guide to the field.
QIPCO 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1)
- When: 3.40pm, Saturday April May 1
- Where: Newmarket Racecourse (Rowley Mile)
- TV: ITV Racing & Racing TV (Sky channel 426)
- Odds: Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
- Racecard & FREE video form
ALBADRI
A 95-rated son of Dandy Man who has a rocky enough profile even at his own level. This isn’t is, unfortunately, and he’ll be way out of his depth on last year’s turf form and more recent evidence on the all-weather.
BATTLEGROUND
Bids to provide a first 2000 Guineas success for his sire War Front, whose progeny include Air Force Blue who was a massive disappointment when sent off 4/5 favourite for the 2016 edition of this race. He didn’t quite reach that horse’s two-year-old performance levels last year but looked exceptional in winning the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood and arguably wasn’t seen to best effect from well off the pace when second following a 101-day break at the Breeders’ Cup. Form of that Keeneland contest hasn’t worked out well at all in the States, but no surprise if there was big improvement to come at three and fast underfoot conditions will suit.
CHINDIT
Reported to have taken trainer Richard Hannon by surprise slightly, having shown sprinting potential at two but apparently needed every yard of the seven furlongs when making a winning return in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury recently. Every chance he’ll relish the move up to a mile on that evidence but needs to leave the bare form behind, on top of proving himself on Newmarket’s gradients, having flopped behind a few of these rivals on only previous course appearance in the Dewhurst.
DEVILWALA
Another from the Dewhurst Stakes, where he finished fourth before failing to make any real impact in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Keeneland (behind Battleground). Back with a respectable fourth over this course and distance but plenty of ground to make up on Master Of The Seas from that Craven effort (lost a shoe) and still hard to be sure about his stamina for the mile.
LEGION OF HONOUR
Yet to run a bad race and his profile is one of steady progression, the second and third career runs both coming after breaks. Half-length second to race-fit Megallan at Newcastle earlier this month was really encouraging and hard to believe he’s peaked already. Clearly needs to take another leap forward in bare form terms but has to be considered one of the livelier outsiders given his connections.
LUCKY VEGA
Fine form in some of the best juvenile sprints, getting his day in the sun when fairly thrashing The Lir Jet in the Group One Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh. Perhaps didn’t quite get the rub of the green in two subsequent starts but others look stronger stayers at a mile and he didn’t possess a mass amount of physical scope last term so probably one to watch for now.
MASTER OF THE SEAS
Loads of talent to the typically compact son of Dubawi but has raced too keenly for his own good in the past, namely when fourth to Thunder Moon in the National Stakes and when second behind stablemate Navan Crown in Meydan. The first-time hood did the trick on his return to UK competition in the Craven Stakes, where he came from a potentially tricky position early on to get up close home under tender handling. Unlikely to want a huge amount further trip-wise so no reason to think he won’t build on the comeback with a massive run on ground he clearly handles.
MUTASAABEQ
Supplemented into the field on Monday for £30,000 which can’t have been the easiest decision, but very hard not to be impressed with his runaway seven-furlong victory here at the Craven meeting. Even allowing for the small field and rail/front-running position to help, it was a visually striking performance from a twice-raced, unbeaten colt whose dam won the 1000 Guineas. Overall feeling is that he’s now found his correct place in the market at 7/1 – a little too short arguably – but no escaping his potential and course know-how here counts for a huge amount.
MYSTERY SMILES
Stable won last year’s rescheduled edition but the repeat looks unlikely given the son of Mehmas could be more of a Commonwealth Cup/Jersey Stakes project, having shown up well for a long way (raced keenly) before finishing third behind the Godolphin pair on his seasonal return in the Craven. Not a name to strike a line through by any means, but takes a real leap of faith to picture him as a leading miler this season.
NAVAL CROWN
Gained plenty of experience at two but never mixed in Group One or Group Two company, which speaks volumes. Registered an eyecatching win over the reopposing Master Of The Seas in Meydan at the start of the year but he held a tactical advantage on that occasion, especially as his stable companion clearly pulled his chances away in the early stages through freshness. Also failed to capitalise on a dip into handicap company here last time out where he was far from disgraced in going down by a neck to Tactical, but will obviously face sterner opposition on this occasion. It’d be a surprise if he were first of the Charlie Appleby-trained trio, let alone took the Classic spoils.
ONE RULER
Evidently got some influential tongues wagging with a recent racecourse gallop before the action kicked off at the Craven meeting but it’s certainly not homework alone that sees the son of Dubawi so prominent in the Guineas betting. He was a bit of a slow burner initially – far from a new development when it comes to his sire’s progeny – but really caught fire with a taking success in the Group Three Autumn Stakes over this course and distance on October 10, ultimately beating Van Gogh by almost two lengths, though the latter had a few traffic problems in comparison. Proved that no fluke with a gutsy second on bad ground in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster and it’s not hard to imagine the return to much better going will result in him reversing that form with Mac Swiney. On the figures he’s hard to split from stablemate Master Of The Seas and recent match-fitness has seemingly swayed stable jockey William Buick to ride that one instead. Leaving James Doyle with the plumb ride on a colt that’s clearly been the talk of the town this spring.
POETIC FLARE
One blip so far and it unfortunately came over this course when finishing down the field in the Dewhurst Stakes. Soft ground that day not a legitimate excuse given the rest of his form including a debut success on Soft/Heavy at Naas, but very nice to see him put in a commanding performance when resuming with a Listed victory at Leopardstown recently. Entitled to come forward from that fitness-wise and the yard is in fine form but he does require another 10lb or so which looks a big ask, especially with so many of the others also still open to bags of further improvement.
THUNDER MOON
Relinquished his previously unblemished record here in the Dewhurst Stakes, but lost precious little else in defeat (third). Had shown a wicked turn of foot to beat Wembley in the National Stakes on just his second public appearance (less than a month on from his maiden), and everything points to him being a massive player in the top three-year-old races. Whether that’s at a mile or six furlongs remains to be seen, having raced solely over seven furlongs as a juvenile, but he’s bred to get the trip (and beyond) so lots to like including ground conditions which should allow him to utilise his raw speed.
VAN GOGH
Rangy son of American Pharoah who took seven goes as a two-year-old to really register the kind of performance that will be required to go close here. He ultimately did so in taking style, landing the Group One Criterium International by four lengths, and while it was heavy that day, he does have good ground form in the book too. Penultimate effort, when a closing second to One Ruler from a relatively poor track position in the Autumn Stakes, brings him into the equation too and overall his form and level of progression at the back end of 2020 suggests he could at least match the principals from the Dewhurst. The Derby entry does suggest connections are planning on middle-distances, though, and a tactical, speed test here could easily catch him out.
WEMBLEY
The only colt in the line-up representing super-sire Galileo, who has produced three 2000 Guineas winners already in Churchill, Gleneagles and Frankel. Like St Mark’s Basilica, he did most of his two-year-old running on softer ground but a quick surface here could spark massive improvement. He won’t need much at all to make a real impact either, having been second to Mac Swiney and Thunder Moon earlier in the 2020 campaign before finding only the aforementioned stablemate too strong in the Dewhurst. He was the apparent first-string under Ryan Moore on that occasion and was running on strongly from near the back of the field, having had to come right around rivals towards the centre of the track. It’s very hard to knock his credentials given the breeding, course experience and consistency at two, while his odds at this point look more than fair too.
Verdict
Looking back at the replay of the Dewhurst again it's hard not to be impressed with the ground made up by WEMBLEY from near the back of the pack, and he was finishing with real purpose. He had to circumnavigate plenty of rivals and probably ended up on the worst part of the track so marking up that effort a touch looks wise.
He's the only son of Galileo in the picture and, from what we know to be true of his sire's progeny, is going to love a mile on what looks likely to be quick ground.
I was happy to take a chance on Van Gogh at 20/1 antepost and I'd argue there's a small chance he's the most talented of the whole bunch with the long-term in mind.
A drop of rain would bring him squarely into the equation, while the only longshot that really sparks some intrigue is the Roger Varian-trained Legion Of Honour who could outrun his odds if continuing to to build on what he's shown to date. He does have an awful long way to go, however.
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