James Doyle celebrates aboard the awesome Coroebus

2000 Guineas analysis | The miler, the Derby horse, the sprinter and more

By Ben Linfoot

Horse Racing

Sat April 30, 2022 · 3y ago

Ben Linfoot unpicks the result of the QIPCO 2000 Guineas, picking out the miler, the Derby horse, an Eclipse possible and the one that should drop back in trip to sprinting.

Here was a QIPCO 2000 Guineas to celebrate on a beautiful spring day at Headquarters. A sound gallop, one big group down the middle of the track, no golden rail to disadvantage others, just a good fair race and a high-class renewal to match.

The three horses who had promised to deliver beforehand finished in the top three, if a little jumbled up from what their juvenile campaigns might’ve hinted, but Charlie Appleby won’t mind after breaking his duck in the Classic with a memorable one-two.

Appleby had gone close in this race with Masar and Pinatubo, who both finished third, before he got as close to winning (without winning) as possible last season when Master Of The Seas was edged out by a short head.

Undeterred, he returned for the 2022 vintage with two colts out of the top drawer, with market second string COROEBUS (5/1) proving himself a top-class miler with a superb display under James Doyle, finishing three-parts-of-a-length ahead of stablemate Native Trail who did little wrong.

The pair were chased home by Luxembourg who was first off the bridle, but he found plenty for pressure in the final three furlongs to confirm himself a smart middle-distance prospect for the season ahead.

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Coroebus is THE miler

In the Sporting Life Racing Podcast Guineas special Graham Cunningham said one of the reasons he loves the 2000 Guineas is because ‘before the race you think, and after the race you know’ and we know now that Coroebus is the star miler in the three-year-old division.

He had hinted at being something special in his juvenile season, both when making his move too soon in the Royal Lodge and when righting that wrong in style in the Autumn Stakes, his strong-travelling style the secret weapon to him claiming this Guineas.

They went a good gallop in one group up the middle on ground edging towards Good to Firm, Coroebus’ far side draw from stall one not inconveniencing him, as it could well have done, as he settled so well from an early stage under Doyle, who picked his path to the winning line carefully.

As Royal Patronage, his Royal Lodge nemesis, took them along, Doyle was happy to settle his mount towards the rear of the pack, trapping onto the coat-tails of Greenham winner Perfect Power.

It was just before the two-furlong pole where the race developed, the jockeys fanning across the track to ensure no hard-luck stories, and it was there that Coroebus was going notably better than those around him, while Native Trail challenged towards the stands’ side.

In front coming out of the dip, it was a case of how much he’d find for pressure and he quickened nicely, Doyle timing his challenge to perfection, a key manoeuvre on a horse that has a telling turn of foot thanks to saving energy with his high-cruising speed.

The St James’s Palace Stakes round the Ascot bend has been pencilled in for him and he’ll go to Royal Ascot with difficult to beat credentials.

REPORT: Coroebus goes for home in the 2000 Guineas

What now for Native Trail?

If Coroebus is THE miler, what is Native Trail? He ran a great race in second here, following Point Lonsdale in the stands’ side section of the group, William Buick getting on top of that rival after the two pole only for Coroebus to emerge in front of him in the race for the line.

He stuck to his task well to be beaten less than a length and he looks well capable at a mile himself, too, for now at least, with the Irish 2,000 Guineas earmarked for him given he has already proved himself at the Curragh thanks to his awesome Vincent O’Brien National Stakes win at two.

The stiff mile at the Curragh looks perfect for him and it’s the natural next step, but after that it gets interesting as Appleby might look to keep these two apart as much as he can.

Native Trail was ever-so-slightly trimmed for the Cazoo Derby in places, from 12/1 to 10s, but that looks highly unlikely as does a mile and a half at any stage this year.

A mile and a quarter could well be within his grasp, though. There are bits and pieces of his pedigree that suggest 10 furlongs will be fine – his dam is out of a 10 furlong winner while his sire Oasis Dream, while better known for his sprinting progeny, did at least produce Midday, a winner at the top level over both 10 and 12 furlongs.

The Coral-Eclipse at Sandown could be his race looking further down the line, but he looks capable of striking at a mile first.

READ Dave Ord from Newmarket: A Classic to savour for Charlie Appleby

Who is the Derby horse?

No prizes for guessing it’s Luxembourg, the most obvious of Epsom candidates after a remarkable run for third.

Priced up as the 100/30 favourite for the Derby before the Guineas, he was cut to a general 5/2 and as short as 2/1 after it due to a last to third performance under Ryan Moore.

One of the first off the bridle and seemingly going nowhere in the final two at halfway, he got rolling down the outside of the pack and looked like he might go on and win just before the final furlong, at which point Coroebus put the race to bed.

He stuck on well for third, though, and he might have been first in a soft-ground Guineas, his prospects at middle-distances enhanced by this effort over an inadequate mile.

By Camelot and related to plenty of 1m4f horses, he looks a worthy Derby favourite at this stage although, while he’s fine on Good ground, his prospects might be enhanced even more if there’s a shower or two in the lead-up to Epsom.

Who is the sprinter?

Not many Norfolk Stakes winners end up in the 2000 Guineas but Perfect Power was more than entitled to have a go after an impressive seasonal reappearance in the Greenham.

He travelled well for the first 75% of the race under Christophe Soumillon and two out only Coroebus was going better, but he finished weakly after his jockey switched him towards the stands’ side around Berkshire Shadow.

Richard Fahey had expressed reservations about him handling the dip despite his remarkable Middle Park win at this track, and he didn’t seem to handle it today, drifting more towards the stands’ side as he came out of it, but he did travel as though he can win more top-level races.

A drop back to a stiff six or seven furlongs could be ideal for him and there will be plenty of opportunities for him the rest of the campaign, starting with the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, a race for which he’s still the 6/1 favourite.

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