1000 & 2000 Guineas tips: Best antepost value bets for Newmarket Guineas Festival
Our expert takes an early look at the QIPCO-backed 1000 and 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, with a recommended bet in the fillies' Classic.
- The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
- Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 100pts profit.
- Last year's antepost Flat winners included Desert Crown in the Derby at 25/1, while he recently tipped Cheltenham Festival winners Maskada at 25/1 and Stage Star at 11/1.
Value Bet tips: Sunday, May 7
2pts win Dream Of Love in QIPCO 1000 Guineas at 16/1 (General) - 14/1 also fine
Top two tough to beat, but keep eye out for Knight
The two Ballydoyle aces Little Big Bear and Auguste Rodin loom large over the QIPCO 2000 Guineas betting five weeks out, and it’s hard to see anything emerging from the trials and leapfrogging the pair of them in the market.
Charlie Appleby’s unbeaten Gimcrack winner Noble Style clearly has a huge amount of potential but he missed the back-end of the season after a bout of colic which is far from ideal, and the one exception when it comes a possible ‘springtime shortener’ might just be Sakheer.
More in the mould of Little Big Bear than the seemingly stamina-laden Auguste Rodin, he’s likely to be plying his trade in top-class sprints if things don’t pan out for him over longer distances this year, but it does look at least worth a try.
Having graduated from a Haydock novice in early-September, Roger Varian’s Zoffany colt was last seen winning the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes – barely breaking sweat in the process – and it makes sense to test him out over seven furlongs for the first time back at Newbury in the Greenham Stakes later this month.
Another stylish success there could make things interesting, and it’s not hard to see this horse going into a Guineas around half the current 12/1 available, but I won’t be betting against Aidan O’Brien’s pair at this stage.
Auguste Rodin just about has the beating of Chaldean, Nostrum, Royal Scotsman and Silver Knott on a strict line through his Doncaster superiority over Epictetus and Holloway Boy, while Little Big Bear saw off the British speedsters in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot before proving himself over a little further in the Anglesey and the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh.
Of those at considerably bigger prices, it should be worth keeping an eye out for Knight, who sports the same KHK Racing silks of Sakheer.
This horse’s form is nowhere near that of the market principals, but his trainers Simon and Ed Crisford are very much an outfit to be taking seriously this season. They were dead keen to have a runner in the Derby last year (West Wind Blows) and Algiers almost winning the Dubai World Cup should act as a timely reminder that the Crisfords now have the ammunition to be mixing in the very best races around.
Knight won a York maiden over seven furlongs in September before seemingly taking connections by surprise (10/1) with a comfortable Group 3 success in the Horris Hill at Newbury the following month.
His classy full-sister Malavath doesn’t quite see out a stiff mile and maybe seven will be his optimum trip too, but I’m intrigued to see a bit more of him this year without feeling compelled to back him for this at 33/1 just yet.
Well-bred Appleby filly begging to be backed
The QIPCO 1000 Guineas, on the face of it, doesn’t look to have quite so much strength in depth after two of the top juveniles from last year have been ruled out of the race.
Firstly, Rockfel and Fillies’ Mile winner Commissioning was forced into an early retirement, while just at the start of this week the O’Brien-trained Statuette, a Group 2 winner at the Curragh when last sighted in June, was said to have had a setback and is unlikely to appear at Newmarket.
That all seems to have paved the way for Dermot Weld’s seriously exciting Tahiyra, who created a big impression when dancing to victory from O’Brien’s Meditate in the Moyglare Stud Stakes on her second start in September.
Meditate franked that form in no uncertain terms by readily winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf at the end of the year, but we know it looked pretty hot at the time regardless.
Whether Tahiyra – a half-sister to the same stable’s brilliant Tarnawa - is actually being aimed at Newmarket is the million-dollar question as she’s obviously taking up a good chunk of the market at 5/2 generally.
Casual observers may feel the 1000 Guineas is missing from Weld’s CV (he’s won the 2000 Guineas, plus the Derby and Oaks), but you can rest assured he won’t care a jot about that, and the reality is that the trainer will do what’s best for his filly.
If that is to keep her at home and run in the Irish 1,000 Guineas just down the road from his yard, effectively minding her with a long and productive three-year-old campaign in mind, then so be it. Would that be the biggest shock in racing? Not for my money.
Take her out and the betting looks a whole lot different, with Meditate clearly expected to shorten from the 3/1 you can currently get with some firms. She got loads of experience at two and brings a serious level of form to the table, along with potential to improve again this term, but I’m willing to cast the net a bit wider in terms of price this far out.
Karl Burke’s flying fillies were a running theme throughout last year and Electric Eyes wasn’t just a flash in the pan – far from it, in fact. The daughter of Siyouni didn’t make her debut until September and promptly stepped up on that Thirsk win to follow home Commissioning in the Rockfel.
That was a massive performance from such an inexperienced filly, after racing keenly, and she could be a real player at the top level if learning to settle this spring.
Honourable mentions too for Cheveley Park Stakes winner Lezoo, along with the intriguing once-raced pair of Mammas Girl (Richard Hannon) and Karsavina (Clive Cox).
Karsavina, in particular, is relatively tempting around 50/1 as I’m convinced we didn’t see anything like her true potential when getting up close home on soft ground at Newmarket in late-October. She’ll be happier on spring ground and may take in a trial in the coming weeks.
However, when it comes to a bet I can’t look beyond Charlie Appleby’s DREAM OF LOVE, who put in the most eyecatching performance I’ve seen for a long time when ultimately beaten a short-head by Saeed bin Suroor’s Mawj at Meydan on January 27.
This genuinely is ‘seen to be believed’ stuff (Racing TV clip below)as she must have been 15 lengths or more off the pace on turning into the straight, before absolutely motoring home and getting her head in front a stride after the line.
Granted, fast-finishers in testing conditions can often be over-rated, but you could tell William Buick was pretty much blown away by the effort in his post-race interview on Racing TV, and it looks highly significant the well-bred daughter of Shamardal (her dam is 2013 Oaks runner-up Secret Gesture, a Galileo full-sister to Japan and Mogul) has been put away since – presumably with a Guineas trial in mind.
Meanwhile, winner Mawj, who finished right on the heels of Lezoo and Meditate in the Cheveley Park, has since bolted up at the same venue in February. On top of that, Meydan fourth Perdika has gone on to win a Listed race in France so it clearly wasn’t a flimsy race, and Dream Of Love looked the best horse in it by a country mile.
Encouragingly, she won her maiden over seven furlongs of the Rowley Mile first time out back in October, showing greenness when initially asked to quicken but still able to run down a relatively experienced Johnston-trained filly who was given an easy lead on what is unquestionably a speed-favouring track.
Although Dream Of Love let down favourite-backers back there later in the same month, it probably came quickly enough after the debut and her pedigree suggests she was always going to be more of a three-year-old anyway.
In short, she has got heaps of untapped potential.
Currently a 16/1 chance after nibbles of support earlier this week, that could still look a huge price on the day if all goes well in the prep run, and I’m keen to back her accordingly with those obvious doubts about the favourite’s participation.
Published at 1530 BST on 01/04/23
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