UFC Vegas 3 betting preview: Curtis Blaydes v Aleksander Volkov; Josh Emmett v Shane Burgos
Last week’s UFC card was incredible, and given the line-up of the card and the amount of last minute changes made to it, making all those who had criticised it in the build-up look a bit silly.
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1pt Josh Emmett to win by KO 21/10
Read: UFC preliminaries: Count on Casey
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This week’s card is headlined by a heavyweight bout between Curtis Blaydes and Aleksander Volkov, as both men look to keep themselves within the top five of the rankings.
In the co-main event you have a fight that I am massively excited for, as Josh Emmett takes on Shane Burgos in a fantastic featherweight clash. Emmett has told a few different MMA news outlets recently that he believes he is only two fights away from a title shot.
That probably isn’t likely given he is in the same division as Zabit Magomedsharipov and Yair Rodriguez, who have been tearing it up, plus the added possibility of Max Holloway taking his title back off Alexander Volkanovski, forcing a trilogy fight. Yet, he definitely is one of the fighters I believe fans should be keeping an eye out for.
Also on the main card you have a strawweight scrap between Raquel Pennington and Marion Reneau and a welterweight fight between Lyman Good and Belal Muhammad, with both fights being ones that should be good fun to watch.
Blaydes to dominate takedowns
For my first selection I’m doubling up on Blaydes to land the most takedowns and Pennington to score a win just for the simple fact that backing Blaydes to land the most takedowns is going to be a really short price because he is a wrestling based fighter taking on an opponent who’s primary style is kickboxing.
Blaydes is an incredibly gifted wrestler, with an average of 6.63 takedowns per 15 minute fight, with a 55% takedown completion rate, which has been achieved in a division that includes some of the best defensive wrestlers in the game such as Aleksei Oleinik and Francis Ngannou.
Having “Razor” on top of you is a very dangerous spot for his opponents as well, as the 33-year-old has incredible power in his ground and pound shots, evidenced by two straight KO wins and 10 KO wins in 15 fights.
Volkov will have to be careful in this fight as if he throws any kicks aimed at Blayde’s mid-section or head, he will leave himself vulnerable to being taken down.
The Russian does hold an impressive takedown defence rate of 77%, but has been taken down by opponents that aren’t as gifted as Blaydes in the past.
In the second leg of this double I have picked Pennington to beat Reneau.
This might seem a bit of an odd choice, and I did contemplate backing Renau to win as she is good value as an underdog pick, but then something struck me.
Pennington’s record isn’t exactly the best, with 10 wins and nine losses, but of those nine losses, five have come at the hands of past UFC champions, with Holly Holm beating her twice and Amanda Nunes, Jessica Andrade and Germain de Randamie all beating her once, showing the calibre of fighter needed to beat Pennington, and I’m not quite sure Renau has that ability.
While Reneau has finishing ability with five KO wins and three submission wins in nine total victories, only one of those has been against a top class opponent, a submission win over Jessica Andrade in 2015, which could be an issue as Pennington is as tough as nails with only one KO loss and one submission loss on her record.
For this fight I fully expect Pennington to dictate the pace and take it to the judges’ scorecards to take a decision win.
Emmett to take advantage of smaller cage
If the UFC’s most recent cards at the Apex centre has taught us anything, it’s that a smaller cage is having a huge impact on the number of finishes, in particular knockouts, on each card, with five first round stoppages at last week’s event alone.
This plays perfectly into the hands of Josh Emmett who is a knockout artist, with six KO wins, with his last three wins all coming via KO.
Shortening the size of the cage will make it easier for Emmett to close the distance against Burgos, bringing him into a range where he can put his striking ability to good use.
Emmett, who trains out of Team Alpha Male might only have a strike accuracy of 36% and land just over three and a half significant strikes per minute, but each one of those strikes, particularly his punches, has the ability to knock his opponent out.
Burgos does hold a good striking defence of 62%, but I’m counting on it being one of the 32% of strikes he isn’t able to slip or block being the one that ends the fight.
For this fight I expect Emmett to try and bring Burgos into a stand up battle, cutting off the cage and stopping any takedown attempts, before landing a heavy punch to end the fight.
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Posted at 1150 BST on 18/06/20
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