UFC Vegas 17: Main card and preliminaries free betting preview and tips

Free MMA betting tips: UFC Vegas 17

2pts Stephen Thompson to win by KO/TKO or on points at evens

2pts Gillian Robertson to win via submission or on points 11/10

2pts Sijara Eubanks to win by decision at 5/4

2pts Jimmy Flick to win by submission at 11/8

Main card

By Kieran Cobley

UFC Vegas 17 is upon us and will round out what has been a spectacular year for the UFC. Despite a global pandemic, the promotion has been able to hold some fantastic cards and put on some fantastic fights for the fans.

This weekend’s card is no different with some incredible fights, with two former champions on the card in Anthony Pettis and Jose Aldo, as well as multiple top contenders like Stephen Thompson and Marlon Moraes.

It’s the Most Wonderboy Time of the Year

I have been a long fan of Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson’s karate-style striking and against Geoff Neal, he should be able to put on a striking masterclass.

The former welterweight title contender holds his hands very low, making it hard for opponents to get a read on his punches, before coming over the top with a head kick.

Thompson’s oblique kicks are vicious as well, and if he lands one clean to his opponent’s knee, they can do a lot of damage, to the extent of tearing ligaments and hyper-extending the knee.

With a striking accuracy of 44% and an average of 3.93 significant strikes landed per minute, he holds a clear striking advantage.

Neal’s best chance of winning this fight is to get it to the mat, but with Thompson’s quick movement and takedown defence rate of 78%, that is easier said than done.

Look for Thompson to hold the centre of the octagon before rushing in with a couple punches and following up with a head kick to win by KO or do enough to win on the judges' scorecards.

At evens, this is the best value bet on the main event.

The Savage is Coming to Town

If you are a grappling fan you need to be watching Gillian Robertson.

The Canadian flyweight has earned a BJJ black belt under Din Thomas, and has won six of her nine victories via submission.

The Savage is very active when the fight hits the floor, and will look to land strikes on the ground while changing position when trying to set up a submission, with her rear naked choke being her weapon of choice.

My prediction for this fight is very simple: Robertson will look to close the distance and get a takedown from the clinch before landing shots on the floor and grabbing a submission the moment she can. Failing this, she should land enough damage to secure a win by decision.

Preliminaries

By Will Dean

Money in the Eubanks

Sijara Eubanks will be making her fourth trip to the Octagon in 2020 this Saturday night, as the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt looks ready to solidify her place in the Bantamweight division’s top 15.

Sarj is a fighter who is willing to face anyone. Her 6-5 MMA record may leave some fans underrating her abilities, but with losses to two previous title contenders and two highly-rated prospects, she is a much better fighter than her resumé would indicate.

Eubanks came into the sport with a respectable BJJ background, but recently she has fused this together with some really dominant wrestling. Her control in the top position has been a key strategy to her fighting style, as she has won 81% of rounds in the UFC when she has successfully landed a takedown.

Her opponent, Pannie Kianzad, will need to keep this fight standing if she hopes to win. Banzai showed a disciplined striking game in her most recent victory, utilising her long frame to throw crisp straight punches throughout the fight.

If Eubanks can close the distance successfully, or press Kianzad up against the fence, then I expect her to be able to land takedowns. Once Sarj gets this fight to the mat, it should be a much easier fight to win. Kianzad is far too interested in trying to land a submission off her back and, against a BJJ black belt, I think it’s highly unlikely she finds any success.

By doing this, she will also allow Eubanks time in the top position and an opportunity to run down the clock while impressing the judges. Eubanks’ top control is amongst the best in the position, as she does not give her opponents any space to work with and is incredibly difficult to break free from.

Whilst Eubanks has the submission ability to end fights inside the distance, I do expect this fight to go to a decision. Sarj has gone to the judges’ scorecards in each of her last eight bouts, whilst Kianzad has seen the scorecards in 14 of her 20. As long as Eubanks can consistently get this fight to the ground, then I think she will make the judges’ decision relatively one-sided.

Brick by brick

Originally scheduled to take place a fortnight ago, this bout between Cody Durden and Jimmy Flick is bound to be exciting.

The Wrestler vs Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu grappler archetype is one that the UFC has built its success on the back of right since the beginning. While the days of an undersized Royce Gracie submitting fighters 40lbs heavier than him may be nearly 30 years in the past, the new era of BJJ grapplers continue to show the evolution of the art of ‘human chess’.

With 13 of his 15 wins coming via submission, Flick has been on the UFC’s radar for some time. He was recently granted the opportunity to showcase his submission skills on Dana White’s Contender Series, where he faced a Junior Olympic bronze medallist in Wrestling. Despite those accolades, Flick controlled every second of the grappling exchanges, attempting seven submissions and ultimately winning via Arm Triangle in the third round.

Much to his enjoyment, Flick will face another lifelong wrestler on Saturday night.

Durden is a two-time state wrestling champion who will happily initiate grappling exchanges and follow The Brick to the mat. While he may initially spend time on top, he will be in constant danger of sweeps, reversals and submission attempts from Flick, who can create danger from seemingly neutralised positions.

Durden, like many wrestlers before him, is not so well equipped when he finds himself on his back. If Flick is successful in turning the tide of this fight and ending on top, then that could be checkmate.

At 13/10, I think we’re getting a good price on Flick to win with another trademark submission victory.