UFC 250 betting preview and tips including O'Malley v Wineland and Assuncao v Garbrandt

Recommended bets

3pts O’Malley to win by KO or Submission at 8/13

2pts Sterling to beat Sandhagen at 10/11

1pt Assuncao to win by KO or Decision 2/1

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Saturday’s UFC card looks to be an absolute cracker, as Amanda Nunes looks to defend her featherweight title for the first time when she takes on Felicia Spenser.

Further down the card you have two bantamweight match-ups that could have a serious impact on the top of the division’s rankings as Aljamain Sterling takes on Cory Sanhagen and former champion Cody Garbrandt looks to snap his three-fight skid against Raphael Assuncao.

The card also features Sean O’Malley and Chase Hooper, two of the youngest and brightest prospects in the UFC, taking on veterans Eddie Wineland and Alex Caceres respectively.

O'Malley fancied for KO

O’Malley is the heavy favourite here and it’s easy to see why.

'Sugar' is 11-0, and utterly dominated last time out against Jose Quinonez in January, winning via first round KO, before saying in his post-fight interview that he wasn’t proud of performance and knew he could do better.

Striking is where O’Malley really shines, and with an accuracy return of 57% and an average of just over six significant strikes landed per minute coupled with a 72 inch reach, it is easy to see why.

The Phoenix native is also well versed in BJJ, with a submission win on his record and being selected to represent the UFC in the Quintet grappling tournament last year, where he picked up a win.

Usually, I’d give some sort of breakdown of how I see this fight going but with O’Malley’s unique style it’s difficult to do, just make sure you don’t blink when watching him fight!

Assuncao ought to be favourite

I surprised when I looked at the odds for this fight, as the layers have Cody Garbrandt as the favourite, despite three straight KO losses.

Assuncao himself is on a two-fight skid, but he has looked far better in those two fights than Garbrandt has in his three losses.

For this fight I’m taking Assuncao to win by KO or decision for one simple reason: Assuncao can win by drawing Garbrandt into a brawl.

When 'No Love' beat Dominick Cruz for the bantamweight title he was light on his feet, and made it almost impossible for Cruz to hit him, but this footwork has seemingly been lost as he's looked more willing to exchange in the three fights since, and that’s what has led to his defeats.

If Assuncao can draw Garbrandt into the brawl, I don’t think the American’s chin will be able to take the power, and if not, I have enough faith in the former's grappling and wrestling as well as his striking to edge the decision.

Sterling wager

Sterling v Sandhagen is probably the fight that I’m the most excited to see this weekend, as both men are at the top of the division and this is likely a title eliminator, plus with both fighter’s styles, I think it will be a real crowd-pleaser.

The bookies don’t seem to know who has the edge, with Sandhagen priced at evens and Sterling around the 4/5 mark depending on where you look.

With that being said, I think Sterling has the edge in this one, and believe he may well be able to finish Sandhagen as well.

'The Funk Master' has a 71-inch reach and he can use it effectively to keep opponents on the outside, and should they get around his reach, he has a fantastic plan B.

That is to use the expertise he has received from his coaches Matt Serra (a former UFC welterweight champion) and Ray Longo, to take the fight to the ground with his wrestling ability before looking for a submission.

For an example of how good Sterling’s grappling is, he is one of only two men to have secured a Suloev Stretch (a very dangerous variation of a kneebar) submission in the UFC.

I fully expect Sterling to keep Sandhagen at range and just tag him with shots, before shooting in for a takedown to assert his grappling dominance.

Posted at 1030 BST on 05/06/20

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