Free UFC betting tips: UFC 256 selections and analysis ahead of PPV card

UFC betting tips

2pts double Figueiredo to win by KO/TKO or Submission & Ferguson to win at 13/8

2pts Dern v Jandiroba fight to go to a decision at 11/10

1pt Gavin Tucker to beat Billy Quarantillo at 11/8

Main card

By Kieran Cobley

Figueir it out

Deiveson Figueiredo could hold a legitimate claim to being the breakout fighter of the year in 2020, with three wins from three fights, all three coming within the distance.

Brandon Moreno will look to stop the Brazilian from making it four wins from four fights, but he is going to come up short.

Figueiredo holds all the skills a top fighter should have: elite-level striking, high-level grappling, and phenomenal wrestling.

'Figgy' has a very aggressive style that can make it difficult for opponents to mount any offence of their own, and that’s how he beats Moreno.

Expect the defending champion to come out fast and push the pace of the fight immediately. If he keeps the fight standing, he will use body shots to set up a big KO blow.

If the fight hits the mat, Figueiredo has some incredible choke submissions, demonstrated by the fact he has won three of his last four fights by locking in either a Guillotine or a Rear Naked Choke.

Even at skinny odds of 4/7, this is the best value bet on the main event but we'll double it up with Tony Ferguson to win.

It’s fair to say 2020 has been a particularly hard year for Ferguson. The former lightweight champion’s bout with Khabib Nurmagomedov fell through for the fifth time, and his stand-in opponent, Justin Gaethje, dismantled him over five rounds to earn a TKO victory.

But I firmly believe that Ferguson will beat Charles Oliveira in this match-up.

Oliveira’s submission game has always been his standout offence with 19 submission wins, but with the fact Ferguson has incredible wrestling and BJJ skills himself (he has only lost once by submission), I see that aspect of the Brazilian’s game being nullified.

Ferguson has incredible boxing skills and his unique movement that sees him close distances incredibly quickly makes him a real threat for Oliveira, especially if can get in close and start using those razor-sharp elbows.

I expect Oliveira will look to get this fight to the ground as quickly as possible, but Ferguson will stop or reverse any takedown attempts before implementing his own game plan.

I’m not sure how Ferguson wins but I feel sure he will, and he completes the double.

Preliminaries

By Will Dean

Easy decision

Saturday night’s bout between Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba features possibly the two most highly talented Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu grapplers in the Strawweight division. Dern is widely considered amongst the pound-for-pound greats in women’s grappling, whilst Jandiroba’s 16-1 record contains 13 submission victories.

To succeed in a sport like BJJ, you must be as well versed in defensive manoeuvres as you are offensively. Whilst both women have shown that they can easily submit their opponents, it is also likely that they will reach a stalemate when trying to make one another tap out. For that reason, I think this fight is going to last longer than many expect and ultimately go the full 15 minutes.

It is common in MMA for two opponents of mirroring styles to fight uncharacteristically, as not to play into their opponent’s strengths. In this fight, we could very easily see both combatants opt to fight exclusively in the striking realm, where each will feel they can get the upper hand.

On the feet, I do believe that Dern holds the slight advantage. She has been working hard on her striking with Jason Parillo (striking coach of Michael Bisping), so may feel confident enough to not even want to grapple anyway. If that is the case, then only Jandiroba will be pursuing takedowns and, even if she gets them, I cannot see her submitting Women’s BJJ royalty.

Regardless of how this fight plays out, both women are neck-and-neck in their abilities. Neither has scored a knockout victory in their professional careers, and neither has been forced to tap out. For me, this fight goes to the judges’ scorecards more often than not.

Tuck into Tucker

GAVIN TUCKER will be hoping to round off 2020 with his second win of the year as he takes on Billy Quarantillo. This fight was originally scheduled to take place in April but was cancelled due to the pandemic.

Both fighters have shown themselves to be well-rounded in their recent Octagon appearances, but I favour Tucker as the more technically gifted everywhere. He throws some educated combinations on the feet, has good offensive wrestling and crafty submission ability.

One of the more underrated facets to The Guv’nor’s game is his fight IQ. In every appearance he has made in the UFC, you can tell that the Canadian has studied his opponent and formulated a gameplan that neutralises their strengths and exploits their weaknesses. Against Qurantillo, he needs to be most wary of a war of attrition.

Billy Q might not be the most talented striker or wrestler, but his intensity and ability to keep a pace is a threat to many. His previous fights always seem to follow a similar narrative, where he gets off to a slow start before growing into the fight and drowning his opponents with relentless forward pressure.

To combat this, Tucker will need to meet Quarantillo in the middle and turn this fight into a brawl. The Canadian should have a speed advantage and the more diverse attacks at boxing range, where he will do his best work. He can also look to take this fight to the mat, as I believe his wrestling is slightly superior to that of Billy Q.

If Tucker can earn Quarantillo’s respect early on, then I think this fight will take place at a tempo that suits the Canadian best. From there, he can take over the fight with his superior striking, prevent the suffocating pressure and ultimately prevail as the more well-rounded fighter over the course of fifteen minutes.

The oddsmakers opened this fight as a coin flip, but public money has pushed Tucker into the underdog role. I’m willing to bet against the majority on this fight, and I think 11/8 is a great price to back The Guv’nor.